NBS-M016 : Contemporary Issues in Climate Change 16 March, 2010 Energy Demand Commercial / other sector requirements

2 2 Table of Contents 1.Scope of this presentation 2.Total Consumption (as data and trend) 3.Economic Trends 4.Assumptions 5.Projections

Scope of this presentation Energy Demand Domestic Commercial / Others TransportIndustrial Employment Statistics, Sept 2009(in million) Distribution, hotels and restaurants (SIC G,H) % Banking, finance and insurance, etc (SIC J,K) % Public administration, education & health (SIC L,M,N) % Other services (SIC O,P,Q) % Total % Source : Office for National Statistics (Nomisweb) 30% of the total energy consumption

Total Consumption (as data) YearCoal Natural Gas Electricity Heat Sold RenewablePetroleumTotalTotal (PJ) ,4988,1551, ,29421, ,7268,3591, ,56822, ,6708, ,80519, ,1778, ,14519, ,7578, ,43820, ,2438, ,75420, ,8718, ,52919, ,5758, ,50119, ,0698, ,42119, Source : DECC (dukes1_1_5.xls) Energy consumption by Final User Thousand tonnes of oil equivalent

Total Consumption (as trend)

Economic Trends

7 7 Energy intensity for the service sector

Assumptions – for Commercial/Service sector Some assumptions have been made in extrapolating the numbers for the future Population –In UK, economic growth will continue to result in declining population growth rate –Global economic growth of developing countries and other regions will result in reduced migration –Globalization and technology will result in faster growth of Commercial / Service sector while resulting a gradual decline in industrial / manufacturing sector –Improvement in health / life-expectancy will provide a larger labour pool for Commercial / Service sector Energy Efficiency –By 2020, there will be a convergence and nations will accept binding targets for drastic reduction in emissions –Energy efficiency in all sectors will continue to improve due new technology, standards, regulations –From , there has been a reduction of approximately 1% per annum. We will make an assumption of a reduction of 0.5% per annum for the next 20 years

Assumptions – for Commercial/Service sector The following areas will impact the total consumption in the commercial sector Impact on Total Comment Building – Heat  Efficient building design, insulation and heat extraction Building – Light  Low energy lighting will become economically viable Building – Others  Computing devices, appliances and other types of devices used in commercial sector will increase in efficiency Building – Consolidation  Small stand-alone commercial spaces will reduce and there will consolidation of commercial space resulting in better utilization of resources Process improvement  Financial benefits of reducing the ecological footprint will incentivise businesses to make their processes more efficient. Growth in Service sector  Population and GDP growth (specifically Commercial/Service sector) will cause increase in absolute consumption

10 5. Projections for Service sector Year Population (millions) Energy by (in PJ)