APES 9/16 & 17  Please take out your Demographic Transition Homework (graph + glued chart)  Prepare for a Warm-Up!

Warm-Up 9/16 & 17 Sketch an age structure diagram, including labeled axes, for Stage 2 of this graph What are two likely reasons that a Stage 2 country has lowered its death rate? What is one likely reason it has NOT lowered its birth rate?

Demographic Transition Homework Review  Check your answers with the provided key.  Draw arrows to change location of incorrectly placed cards.  Turn in to inbox.

Learning Target  I can explain the role of TFR and RFR in predicting population growth  I understand the current population situation in China and India

Human Population Dynamics There are just three sources of change in population size — 1. Fertility 2. Mortality "natural decrease" refers to population decline resulting from more deaths than births 3. Migration Net migration is the number of immigrants minus emigrants

Total Fertility Rate  Total fertility rate (TFR)  The average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime (NOT per 1,000 people)  Most important indicator of pop. growth used by demographers  Global average = 2.36 (down from 4.95 in 1950!)  Average in developed countries = 1.5  Average in developing countries = 3.8

Global TFR’s

Falling TFR’s doesn’t mean fewer people! Falling rates of growth do not mean a decreasing population, but only that rates of increase are slowing

Replacement Fertility Rate  Replacement fertility rate (RFR)  The # of children a couple must have to replace themselves  In average # of children born per person  Takes into account infant mortality and people who don’t reproduce  A rate of 2.1 for developed countries with low infant and child mortality rates  Africa RFR = 2.5

Population Lag  When a country’s TFR changes drastically due to education, disease, etc., it takes a generation for declining pop. growth to show up.  Why? The babies born before the rate declined still have to grow up and have babies of their own.  This “lag time” in the growth actually slowing is called population lag.

Factors that Influence TFR  Empowerment of women  Family planning programs  Poverty  HIV/AIDS

Female Education and TFR Female literacy, school enrollment, and access to family planning are correlated with total fertility rate.  In 2007, 54% of married women worldwide used contraception;  China = 86%; the U.S. = 68%; 20 African nations < 10%

What Is Family Planning?  Measures enabling parents to control number of children.  Goals of Family Planning- healthy children that parents can care for; parents can have # children they desire. Blue = family planning accessible Red = family planning not accessible

The Int’l Conference on Pop. and Development  In 1994 Cairo, Egypt, 179 nations called on all governments to offer universal access to reproductive health care within 20 years  Offer better education and health care and alleviate poverty, disease, and sexism  Controversy in the U.S. Currently, GOP House of Reps. is working on legislation to limit Planned Parenthood Employers affiliated with religious orgs. have asked for exceptions to Affordable Care Act’s coverage of contraception (“Obamacare”)

Case Studies - China  Family planning efforts began in 1970; TFR fell from 5.7 to 1.6; infant mortality and illiteracy rates 1/3 to 1/2 of India’s rates  Population control program is extensive, intrusive and strict:  postpone childbearing  only one child/family -- >benefits  dictatorship allows for stricter compliance

One Child Policy in China 1. Why did the Chinese Government take population control measures? a. Fresh water and food sources became strained b. Country experiencing population momentum 2. Government “Perks” for having one child: a. Free education and health care b. Increased personal and family incomes c. Increased legal marrying age for women d. Contraceptives, abortions, and sterilizations free of charge e. Preferential housing and retirement income

Case Studies - India  Family planning efforts began in 1952; fertility rate declined from 5.3 to 2.5 but population growth rate is still 1.2%  Disappointing results due to:  poor planning  bureaucratic inefficiency  low status of women  extreme poverty  lack of administrative & financial support

Poverty and The Environment Exponential pop. growth leads to environmental damage because impoverished people are focused on survival and can’t afford to consider the needs of the environment.  Overpopulation in Africa’s Sahel region has led to overgrazing of semi-arid lands.  Deforestation in the Amazon  Destruction of bamboo forests in China

Affluence and the Environment Poverty can lead to environmental degradation… BUT Wealth and resource consumption can produce even more severe and far- reaching environmental impacts.

The Wealth Gap Residents of developed nations have larger houses, more possessions, and more money than residents of developing nations. The richest 20% of the world’s people consumes 86% of its resources, and has > 80 times the income of the poorest 20%.

Measuring Impact of Affluence  Environmental Impact Equation  Credited to Paul Ehrlich, an ecologist (1970’s) I = P x A x T  I= Total Impact  P= Population size  A= Affluence  T= Level of technology

 The IPAT model: I = P x A x T x S  Our total impact (I) on the environment results from the interaction of population (P), affluence (A) and technology (T), with an added sensitivity (S) factor  Population = individuals need space and resources  Affluence = greater per capita resource use  Technology = increased exploitation of resources  Sensitivity = how sensitive an area is to human pressure  Further model refinements include education, laws, ethics