Context of Congressional Elections Single member districts Roughly equal size (650,000 souls) First Tuesday in November in even # years Australian ballot Must win 2 elections

Same Place, Same Voters Three Maps, Three Outcomes Basic Rules – each square same population. – All squares in the same district must touch – R squares have a majority of Republican voters – D squares have a majority of Democratic voters. Each set of squares with the same color represent a single election district

Map 1 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections? five desirable less safe, more competitive districts, where the winner of the election may be either a Republican or a Democrat

Map 2 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections? three Republican and two Democratic majority districts, all safe 55 percent or better districts for incumbents of the respective parties. Note the very safe pink D district

Map 3 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections? two Republican and three Democratic majority districts, all safe 55 percent or better districts for incumbents of the respective parties:

Florida Florida's 22nd District – 90 miles long – Less than 3 miles wide. – every beach house lining Route A1A along Florida's Gold Coast from West Palm Beach to Miami Beach – 52% Dem in 2000, 55% R in 2002

Majority Minority Districts

Social & Political Contexts Amazing Variation – geographic size – Population – Economic base – Ethnicity – Age – Partisanship

Incumbency Reelection Rates

Incumbency 93% of House incumbents are reelected – 1994, 84% of House Democrats were reelected 77% of Senate incumbents are reelected #1 question to ask for congressional elections, Is there an incumbent? Defining feature of Congress

Sources of Incumbent advantage Institutions are designed by members who want to get reelected. Amazing array of resources – Free mail, trips to district, staff – Free facilities for TV and radio ads – Casework

# of Senate Staff, 1830 –1993

Puzzle

Is it the Money? Average incumbent gets 64.3% of vote For every $100,00 spent, lose 1.17% of vote For every $100,00 spent by party, lose 2.73% of vote incumbent House winner spends $700,00 incumbent House loser spends 1,300,000

Incumbency Status and Voters' Familiarity with Congressional Candidates, Jacobsen, The Politics of Congressional Elections, 1996

Voters’ Contact with Incumbents

Voters’ Contact with Candidates, 1990

Challengers 1990, 1994

Things Liked about Incumbents

Things Disliked about Incumbents

Things Liked about Challengers

Characteristics of Winning and Losing Challengers

Corporate PACs/Trade Associations 60% of all PAC $, 1994

The Incumbent’s Strategy Discourage serious electoral competition – Herb Kohl Use casework, trips home, mailings to create perception of invulnerability Ambitious career politicians and campaign funders are rational

Who is a marginal incumbent Less than 60% of vote in previous election Scandal in last term Republican in a democratic leaning district First term representative

Electoral Competition and Challenger Spending in 1994 Challenger’s party vote in last House election, spending by non-incumbent house candidate <40%, $105, %, $322, %, $433,000 Open seat $580,000

House of Representatives 61 “competitive” races in 2000 – 193 GOP incumbents won, 4 lost – 199 Dem incumbents won, 2 lost – GOP wins 20 of 25 open seats – Dems with 4 of 10 open seats 17 changes of 435

Senate in toss up races out of 33 – GOP 13 of 18 incumbents win – Dems 10 of 11 incumbents win – GOP 0 of 1 on open seats – Dems 3 of 4 on open seats 7 changes

Expectations Game Better the electoral odds, better the challenger and more money Weak incumbents and open seats attract well funded quality challengers Strong incumbents attract weak, poorly funded candidates

Strategic Politician Hypothesis Best candidates, most money go to marginal incumbents, open seats 2 nd tier candidates, some money go Hopeless, poorly funded candidates run against strong incumbents

Campaigns ½ of all money is wasted, high uncertainty What issues are important Low turnout Random terror and running scared – Tom Foley, speaker of the house, 15 terms

Why do incumbents win? Better known (90% vs 40% Better liked (more familiar) Better funded

Why do challengers win? Make voters aware of incumbents’ shortcomings, their own virtues via mass media Are well funded Implications???

Reforming the System Term limits – Federal level – State level Increase competitiveness of elections – Campaign finance reform Key Issue, how to get more people to run for office!!!

Why Incumbents Win Table 5.3, high name recognition Table 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates Table 5.15 – Personal – Performance/experience – District service – Ideology/Policy

Challengers Strategy Table 5.3 name recognition Table 5.11, Campaign expenditures and name recognition Table 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates – Where do voters learn about challengers Table 5.15, Things liked about challengers – What is #1?

The Two Congresses Representative/elective institution – reelection is never far from members’ minds. Lawmaking institution – First branch of government – Unique among representative institutions

Explaining the Behavior of Individual Members Edmund Burke should representative – act like a delegate and follow the wishes of those who have elected him or her? – Or as a Trustee who decides according to his or her own best judgment?

Changing Representational Roles Lawmakers District service Constituent assistance

3 types of behavior Advertising – Nobody’s senator but yours Credit claiming – Has to be credible – Pork barreling; casework Position taking – Inherently costly

reelection tips for legislators keep your perspective speak the right language first impressions are important