United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division 2008 SNA - Implementation plans in SPECA countries Presentation by UNECE Gabriel Gamez August 2012 Session 3

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 2October 2012 Overview 1. Background 2. Completed regional activities on the 2008 SNA implementation 3. Draft implementation plan tables 4. Draft implementation plan tables for SPECA 5. Conclusions reached at the May 2012 meeting in Geneva 6. Planned regional activities on the 2008 SNA implementation 7. Points to consider

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 3October 2012 Background Recommendations of the UNSC UN Statistics Division in New York coordinates global implementation UN regional commissions → regional implementation plans UNECE to support implementation in South and East Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia UNECE Survey on SNA implementation in the region in replies from the countries of South and East Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia as well as Mongolia Implementation plans in progress

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 4 October 2012 Completed regional activities on the 2008 SNA implementation (1) TimeActivity February 2010UNECE conducted a survey on the challenges in implementation of 2008 SNA in East Europe and Central Asian countries April 2010Special session at the meeting of the Expert Group on National Accounts to present the survey results and to discuss the need for an implementation strategy for the 2008 SNA. Geneva, 26 April May 2011Joint IMF/EFTA/UNECE Workshop on Links between Government Finance and National Accounts Statistics for East Europe and Central Asian countries. Vienna, 2-6 May July 2011Production of country profiles, based on the 2010 survey and bilateral contacts with countries, which identify main outstanding problems and the need for technical assistance country by country

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 5 October 2012 Completed regional activities on the 2008 SNA implementation (2) TimeActivity November 2011Joint UNECE/UNSD/EFTA Workshop on the implementation of the 2008 SNA in Central Asia and Eastern European countries. Kiev, 29 November – 2 December February 2012UNECE received draft implementation plans (all 6 SPECA countries replied) April 2012Launch of website for material on 2008 SNA implementation, including country profiles, draft implementation plans and training materials or links to training materials May 2012Special session at the meeting of the Expert Group on National Accounts, where the draft national plans were presented (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan) and discussed, and a draft regional implementation plan was developed

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 6October 2012 Draft implementation plan tables In 2011 UNECE developed a table to help countries to formulate structured national implementation plans The table follows the three stages and milestones for the change over to the 2008 SNA as suggested by the ISWGNA Each stage has been divided into more detailed actions points based on discussions with the countries in the region The table helps to identify problems and priorities reflecting both users' needs and resources constraints It enables timely support for the implementation process of the 2008 SNA in the countries The structure of tables was discussed and refined at the Workshop in Kiev

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 7October 2012 Draft implementation plan tables: Content Stage 1:Review of national or regional statistical strategic papers for inclusion of the 2008 SNA implementation plan a)Identification of outstanding issues with 1993 SNA b)The main changes from 1993 SNA to 2008 SNA and their impacts c)Institutional agreements d)Prioritization based on user needs and available resources e)Inclusion of the implementation of 2008 SNA in the overall strategic plan of the statistical office f)Adoption of detailed implementation action plans Stage 2:Review of work needed to support implementation of 2008 SNA a)Adoption of classifications and other improvements in business statistics and business registers b)Changes in business surveys to collect data for 2008 SNA c)Adaptation of administrative data sources to the new requirements d)IT and other changes Stage 3:Development of National Accounts and changeover to 2008 SNA Milestone 1. Basic indicators of GDP Milestone 2. GNI and other primary indicators Milestone 3. Institutional sector accounts: first step Milestone 4. Institutional sector accounts: intermediate step 1 Milestone 5. Institutional sector accounts: intermediate step 2 Milestone 6. Institutional sector accounts: final step

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 8October 2012 Draft implementation plan tables for SPECA STAGE 1 - Review of strategic papers StatusActivities and problemsNeed for TATiming a Identification of main outstanding issues with SNA 1993 Completed: 6 Clear understanding of main outstanding issues with SNA 1993 b Understanding the main changes in 2008 SNA and their importance Completed: 2 On-going: 2 Planned: 2 Main actions: Main focus on changes affecting GDP, drafting guidelines and instructions of new methods Seminars, workshops, guidelines in Russian, experience of others 2012: : : 2 c Identification of the main institutions involved, establishment of agreements for 2008 SNA implementation On-going: 4 Planned: 1 Not started: 1 Main actions: Development and signing of agreements or MOU with other institutions, discussions on 2008 SNA changes Coordination of cooperation between the institutions, and seminars for their staff, experience of others 2012: : : : 1 d Prioritization for 2008 SNA, based on user needs and resources Completed: 1 On-going: 2 Planned: 1 Not started: 2 Main actions: Workshops for the users, discussions with users and other institutions Main problems: Lack of resources to communicate with users Training for the users on 2008 SNA issues 2012: : : 1 e Inclusion of 2008 SNA implementation in the overall strategic plan Completed: 4 On-going: 2 Main actions: Development and inclusion of plans in overall statistical plans Main problems: Issues related to coordination with overall plans for statistics 2013: : 1 f Adoption of a detailed implementation plan for 2008 SNA Completed: 2 On-going: 3 Not started: 1 Main actions: Development of a detailed plan, the plan to be coordinated or included into the medium-term plans for statistics Main problems: Issues related to coordination with overall plans for statistics Exchange of country views2012: : 1

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 9October 2012 Draft implementation plan tables for SPECA STAGE 2 - Review of work needed to support implementation StatusActivities and problemsNeed for TATiming a Adoption of new classifications in business registers and business statistics Completed: 2 On-going: 2 Planned: 1 Not planned yet: 1 Main actions: Development, adoption and implementation of national classifications according NACE rev.2 (ISIC 4), development of other classifications and tables for transition. Main problems: Need for improvements in business registers, backcasting issues. Workshops on backcasting, classifications, business registers and business statistics 2012:1 2014: : 1 b Changes in business statistics surveys and questionnaires On-going: 4 Planned: 2 Main actions: Reviewing data sources, changes in statistical surveys and questionnaires Main problems: Lack of resources and knowledge, sampling issues, difficulties with data collection Workshops, experience of other countries Continuously: : : 1 c Adaptation of administrative data sources On-going: 4 Planned: 1 Not planned yet: 1 Main actions: Reviewing data sources, cooperation with CB and MoF on implementation of BPM 6 and GFS, cooperation with administrative registers Main problems: Difficulties with data sources and data collection Workshops, consultations Continuously: : : 1 d IT and other changesOn-going: 4 Planned: Not planned yet: 2 Main actions: Improvement of IT and data warehouses in national accounts and basic statistics Main problems: Lack of resources, need for software and training of staff IT training for staffContinuously: : : 1

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 10October 2012 Draft implementation plan tables for SPECA STAGE 3 - Development of National Accounts and changeover Milestone 1. Basic indicators of GDP: Outstanding issues from SNA 1993 GDP production and expenditure side Main actions: Data sources, coverage, deflators, quarterly GDP GDP exhaustiveness Main actions: NOE, estimates for illegal activities GDP at constant prices Main actions: Deflators, double deflation, GDP by expenditure Main problems: Need for detailed price indices Owner-occupied dwellings services Main actions: Identification of data sources, studies of methodology Main problems: Lack of information by categories of dwellings Accrual basis for GFS data recording Main actions: Discussions with Ministry of Finance and other partners Supply-Use tables Main actions: Experimental calculations Main problems: Lack of human and financial resources to collect and process information Regional GDP Main actions: NUTS levels, data sources by regions, cooperation with other institutions

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 11October 2012 Draft implementation plan tables for SPECA STAGE 3 - Development of National Accounts and changeover Milestone 1. Basic indicators of GDP: New issues from 2008 SNA Output of the Central bank Main actions: Studies of methodology, discussions with CB, preparation of methods Main problems: Lack of resources, availability of appropriate data Calculation of FISIM and allocation to users Main actions: Studies of methodology, discussions with CB, preparation of methods Expenditure on R&D Main actions: Studies of methodology, discussions in NSO and with other institutions, methods Main problems: Statistical questionnaires, changes in GFS needed, new survey, resources Military expenditure Main actions: Studies of methodology, discussions with MF and others, experimental calculations Main problems: Lack of resources, changes in GFS needed, military expenditure is confidential Consumption of fixed capital & Other changes for fixed assets Main actions: Perpetual inventory method study, improvement of estimates in government sector, changes in questionnaires, experimental calculations Main problems: No long time series by types of fixed assets, lack of resources Goods for processing (sent to and received from abroad) Main actions: Identification of issues, discussions with other institutions

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 12October 2012 Draft implementation plan tables for SPECA STAGE 3 - Development of National Accounts and changeover Milestone 2. GNI and other primary indicators For rest of the world – external accounts of primary income and current transfers, capital and financial accounts (BPM 6) 4 - in process of study and discussion, 2 - not planned yet Status Main actions: Study of the 2008 SNA and BPM 6, cooperation with CB, adjustment of existing methods and surveys Main problems: Lack of resources, insufficient IT support, issues with data sources Activities and problems Guidelines, training and workshops Need for TA 2 - Continuously, , Planned timeframe

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 13October 2012 Draft implementation plan tables for SPECA STAGE 3 - Development of National Accounts and changeover Milestone 3-6. Institutional sector accounts: All accounts: Including Financial accounts, Balance sheets 3 - in process of study and discussion, 3 - not planned yet Status Main actions: Study of the 2008 SNA and BPM 6, cooperation with CB, adjustment of existing methods and surveys Main problems: Lack of resources, insufficient IT support, issues with data sources Activities and problems Guidelines, training and workshops Need for TA Planned timeframe

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 14October 2012 Conclusions reached at the May 2012 meeting in Geneva  Countries welcomed the support to the 2008 SNA implementation  General agreement to follow the stages and the milestones for the implementation of the 2008 SNA, as suggested by the ISWGNA Particular circumstances in countries should be taken into account to ensure the development of realistic implementation plans  Dissemination and communication of the updated national accounts indicators to be addressed in further detail in: Report of activities to support the implementation of the 2008 SNA in Eastern European and Central Asian countries  UNECE to establish a website for 2008 SNA implementation Relevant materials and useful links, draft national implementation plan tables

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 15October 2012 Conclusions reached at the May 2012 meeting in Geneva  Technical assistance and practical guidance needed in a number of areas, such as: Improvement of primary statistics; use of administrative sources and statistical business registers; classifications; prices and volume measures; exhaustiveness of the national accounts; measurement of the non-observed economy; integrated accounts and tables; financial statistics; institutional sector accounts; software; backcasting, time series analysis and seasonal adjustment practices  UNECE to provide assistance in the form of methodological guidance, training workshops and materials, in English and Russian Subject to the availability of funding  Internal coordination within NSOs to be improved to involve primary statistics in the implementation of the 2008 SNA

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 16October 2012 Conclusions reached at the May 2012 meeting in Geneva  Cooperation with Ministries of Finance and Central Banks is crucial The 2008 SNA and the BPM6 implementation should be coordinated  Cooperation of regional and international organizations to ensure Efficient and consistent support to countries Coordinated implementation of the BPM6 and the 2008 SNA  Special sessions to follow-up on the 2008 SNA implementation To be organized in conjunction with the Meeting of Group of Experts on National Accounts in 2014 and 2016

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 17October 2012 Planned regional activities on the 2008 SNA implementation TimeActivity November 2012Joint UNSD/UNECE Workshop on economic classifications and their implementation for primary economic statistics and national accounts in statistical offices in East Europe and Central Asia Early 2013Joint IMF/EFTA/UNECE seminar on the links between Government Finance Statistics and the National Accounts Mid-2014Special session at the meeting of the Expert Group on National Accounts, to take stock and plan for the following two-year period Capacity building missions and specialized workshops (depending on funding) Mid-2016Special session at the meeting of the Expert Group on National Accounts, to take stock and look forward for follow-up activities

UNECE Statistical Division Slide 18October 2012 Points to consider  The 2008 SNA to be implemented while still developing the full system of accounts – a challenge or an advantage?  The draft implementation plan tables should be revised by countries during  Technical Assistance and Cooperation: The 2008 SNA implementation depends on the availability of appropriate resources. Allocation of sufficient resources within the national statistical offices to ensure that the plans can actually be implemented Provision of technical assistance by international and regional organisations during the implementation process Funding of the different activities, both from national and international sources, should be considered as part of the implementation plans