Using Statistics – from Florence Nightingale to Al Gore… NZAMT 2007

Plan for today Health Statistics  Florence Nightingale  Dynamic Graphs - Gapminder  UN Statistics Statistical Literacy  Curriculum  Data Lenses Environmental Statistics  Expectation / Surprise  Al Gore  Correlation / Causation

Task One  Look at the graph you have been given…  What do you think?

The Areas of the blue, red, & black wedges are each measured from the centre as the common vertex. The blue wedges measured from the centre of the circle represent area for area the deaths from Preventable or Mitigable Zymotic diseases, the red wedges measured from the centre the deaths from wounds, & the black wedges measured from the centre the deaths from all other causes. The black line across the red triangle in Nov marks the boundary of the deaths from all other causes during the month. In October 1854, & April 1855, the black area coincides with the red, in January & February 1855, the blue coincides with the black. The entire areas may be compared by following the blue, the red, & the black lines enclosing them. Source: Nightingale, Florence. Notes on Matters Affecting the Health, Efficiency and Hospital Administration of the British Army,

Florence Nightingale "To understand God's thoughts we must study statistics, for these are the measure of His purpose" Issue – high mortality rate due to unsanitary conditions Issue – high mortality rate due to unsanitary conditions Collected data Collected data Invented Polar Area Diagram Invented Polar Area Diagram Intro of field hospitals Intro of field hospitals

 ery/milestone/sec1.html ery/milestone/sec1.html  Milestones in the History of Thematic Cartography, Statistical Graphics, and Data Visualization Further Exploration…

The new curriculum…  Evaluate the effectiveness of different displays in representing the findings of a statistical investigation or probability activity undertaken by others.  Evaluate statements made by others about the findings of statistical investigations and probability activities.  Evaluate statistical investigations or probability activities undertaken by others, including data collection methods, choice of measures, and validity of findings.

The draft new curriculum…  Evaluate statistical reports in the media by relating the displays, statistics, processes and probabilities used to the claims made.  Evaluate statistically based reports: Interpreting risk and relative risk Identifying sampling and possible non-sampling errors in surveys, including polls.  Evaluate a wide range of statistically based reports, including surveys and polls, experiments, and observational studies: Critiquing causal-relationship claims; Interpreting margins of error

Possible lenses for viewing data displays  I notice / I wonder  Interest Groups  Analysis Matrix  THINKits  Expectations / Surprises  Tell a story…

Gapminder…

Tell a story…  Use the gapminder software, select a graph and use it to tell a story…

Downloads  click on Gapminder Tools… then download button under each graph  ds/applications/

Your turn…  Look at the graph you have been given from the viewpoint of the region you represent…

An alternative method… SmallMediumLarge Africa Americas Eastern Mediterranean Europe South East Asia Western Pacific

Expectations / Surprises  Challenging preconceived ideas  Exploring Centre and Spread Exploring Centre and Spread

UN Stats  I notice…  I wonder…  Thinking matrix

Link  _10highlights.pdf _10highlights.pdf  WHO – WHO Statistical Information System 

Life expectancy at birth (years)  Rationale for use  Life expectancy at birth reflects the overall mortality level of a population. It summarizes the mortality pattern that prevails across all age groups - children and adolescents, adults and the elderly.  Definition  Average number of years that a newborn is expected to live if current mortality rates continue to apply.  Associated terms  A life table presents a set of tabulations that describe the probability of dying, the death rate and the number of survivors for each age or age group. Accordingly, life expectancy at birth is an output of a life table.  Data sources  Vital registration, census and surveys: Age-specific mortality rates required to compute life expectancy at birth.

Methods of estimation  WHO has developed a model life table based on about 1800 life tables from vital registration judged to be of good quality.  For countries with vital registration, the level of completeness of recorded mortality data in the population is assessed and mortality rates are adjusted accordingly.  Where vital registration data for 2003 were available, these were used directly to construct the life table. For countries where the information system provided a time series of annual life tables, parameters from the life table were projected using a weighted regression model, giving more weight to recent years. Projected values of the two life table parameters were then applied to the modified logit life table model, where the most recent national data provided an age pattern, to predict the full life table for  In case of inadequate sources of age-specific mortality rates, the life table is derived from estimated under-5 mortality rates and adult mortality rates that are applied to a global standard (defined as the average of all the 1800 life tables) using a modified logit model.

 Disaggregation  By sex, location (urban/rural, major regions/provinces).  Comments  The lack of complete and reliable mortality data, especially for low income countries and particularly on mortality among adults and the elderly, necessitates the application of modelling (based on data from other populations) to estimate life expectancy. WHO uses a standard method as explained above to estimate and project life tables for all Member States using comparable data. This may lead to minor differences compared with official life tables prepared by Member States.

A look at environmental data…  Where would you like to live Where would you like to live

Environmental Statistics

Al Gore  An inconvenient truth 

Some graphs  Compare and Contrast it Compare and Contrast it  An inconvenient truth An inconvenient truth

Correlation / Causation  Power point Power point

Statistical Thinking

A statistician is a person who stands in a bucket of ice water, sticks their head in an oven and says "On average, I feel fine." K.Dunnigan

A mathematician is a blindfolded person in a dark room looking for a black cat which isn't there. Charles Darwin