Pandemic Flu Planning Influenza: Seasonal and Pandemic Steven Moore Emergency Planning Officer East of England Ambulance Service This presentation is taken from a briefing by Dr Marian McEvoy - CCDC HPA - October 2005

Pandemic Flu Planning What is What? Seasonal Flu Pandemic Flu Bird Flu Yearly onset (normally winter) Limited vaccine Yearly deaths from virus Can be at anytime of the year Currently there is no vaccine Will be more virulent than Seasonal Flu Can be at anytime of the year Currently there is no vaccine Will be more virulent than Seasonal Flu

Pandemic Flu Planning Pandemic Phases

Pandemic Flu Planning Pandemic and Epidemic (seasonal) Flu: Differences PandemicSeasonal (Epidemic) anytime of year 1/30 years – anytime of year Every year - winter Estimated 25%+ of population affected – but could be at the same time as Seasonal Flu 10-15% affected

Pandemic Flu Planning Pandemic and Epidemic (seasonal) Flu: Differences PandemicSeasonal Much higher mortality, all groups may be at risk Lower mortality, most recover, deaths in at risk groups, such as ill and elderly May be no vaccine initially and anti-virals limited Vaccine strains usually predictable

Pandemic Flu Planning Pandemic v War The Pandemic in 1918 killed more people that World War 1

Pandemic Flu Planning Avian Flu (Bird Flu) A/H5N1 could mutate to enable human to human transmission Currently no strong evidence of above Vaccine development work underway ( adverse reactions – a risk ) Oseltamivir effective against H5N1 (???) Few cases in humans in Mainland Europe

Pandemic Flu Planning What do we need to do locally: Seasonal flu Clear understanding of difference between this and pandemic flu (DoH’s Explaining Pandemic Flu Leaflet Vaccination for agencies outside NHS – cannot be done by NHS GPs Continue flu campaign for >65s and risk groups

Pandemic Flu Planning What do we need to do locally: Pandemic flu Pandemic Flu Coordinating Committee Explore NHS OH resources for prophylaxis (firstly) and vaccination (at later stage) of frontline staff Ensuring other key agencies have clear OH vaccination plans in place Remember incubation period is 2-4 days

Pandemic Flu Planning What do we need to do locally: Pandemic flu Business continuity (all agencies) Public order issues (working with Constabulary) Channels of communication Social initiatives hygiene in public places schools (planning to close or stay open) public gatherings

Pandemic Flu Planning Face Masks FFP3 masks for close contact treatment where there will be bodily fluids… –Intubation –Naso examination –Dentistry Risk of over reliance on masks Only useful if introduced with other infection control processes such as hand washing

Pandemic Flu Planning Face Masks Who else has bought face masks… –Banks –Three Vallies Water –EDF Energy Risk of staff confusion if private companies have masks and NHS / HPA are saying masks are not necessary for continual wearing

Pandemic Flu Planning Mortality Rate Pandemic Flu will bring additional deaths Although like all illnesses we can’t predict exactly how many people will die, we do know there will be an increase Approximately 0.37% of the Hertfordshire population will die, that is in the region of 1000 people (over and above normal seasonal flu deaths)

Pandemic Flu Planning Training Don’t panic Mr Mainwaring !! October 2006 Exercise Willlson took place To look at issues at mass vaccination centres Staff resilience Patient compliance

Pandemic Flu Planning Resources available

Pandemic Flu Planning Bird Flu Reaches France The first death from Bird Flu is witnessed at Disneyland Paris Mickey and Minnie are still in mourning their friend Donald’s fate! Any Questions?