Gulf Coastal Plains & Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative: Past Progress, Current Activities, and Future Directions Adaptation Science Management Team Conference Call January 22, 2014

Objectives and Outline Overview LCC activities from 2013 to ensure ASMT is aware of existing science efforts – Science Agenda – RFP – Multi-LCC projects Discuss broad science priorities for 2014 – Strategic Plan Landscape and Species Assessments Landscape Conservation Design Offer up some potential next steps for 2014 – Engagement in TATs – In-person ASMT meeting

Official LCC Mission To define a shared vision for sustainable natural and cultural resources in the face of a changing climate and other threats; design strategies to achieve that vision; and deliver results on the ground through leadership, partnerships, contributed resources, evaluation and refinement over time

Official LCC Mission To define a shared vision for sustainable natural and cultural resources in the face of a changing climate and other threats; design strategies to achieve that vision; and deliver results on the ground through leadership, partnerships, contributed resources, evaluation and refinement over time

Strategic Habitat Conservation

Integrated Science Agenda Communication Tool – Describe how the GCPO LCC is “operationalizing” SHC

Science Need Themes Define desired states for each habitat in terms of specific endpoints Species-habitat relationships for species indicative of desired states for habitats

Defining Landscapes Geographic frame of reference West Gulf Coastal Plain Gulf Coast East Gulf Coastal Plain Ozark Highlands Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Priority Habitat Types Terrestrial #1Terrestrial #2Aquatic East Gulf Coastal Plain Open Pine Woodland and Savanna Grassland-Prairie- Savanna Freshwater Aquatic: Medium-low gradient streams & rivers Ozark HighlandsUpland HardwoodsFreshwater Aquatic: High gradient streams & rivers Mississippi Alluvial Valley Forested WetlandsFreshwater Aquatic: Mainstem “Big” Rivers West Gulf Coastal Plain Grassland-Prairie- Savanna Open Pine Woodland and Savanna Freshwater Aquatic: Medium-low gradient streams & rivers Gulf CoastBeaches and DunesEstuarine Systems: Tidal marsh

Establishing Conservation Targets Endpoints define the desired states for broadly-defined habitat types – Landscape Spatial and temporal patterns of habitat – Species Ecological role (habitat, functional, etc.)

Open Pine Woodland and Savanna Ecologically Desirable State of the System – Woodlands and savannas comprised mostly of pine with low basal area, open canopies, and dense herbaceous understories in large interconnected blocks

Open Pine Woodland and Savanna Ecologically Desirable State of the System – Woodlands and savannas comprised mostly of pine with low basal area, open canopies, and dense herbaceous understories in large interconnected blocks How much pine? How low does the basal area need to be? How open the canopy? How much understory? How large the forest block? How interconnected?

Open Pine Woodland and Savanna Defining Desired Levels Landscape and Species Endpoints

Integrated Science Agenda Communication Tool – Describe how the GCPO LCC is “operationalizing” SHC – Articulate the initial subset of science needs that are the specific priorities of the GCPOLCC Partnership and the logic behind their identification – Context for LCC science

Science Need Themes Define desired states for each habitat in terms of specific endpoints Species-habitat relationships for species indicative of desired states for habitats ID of indicators for economically and culturally sustainable landscapes Current assessment of landscape Prediction of alternative future landscapes ID prominent drivers of system change and mechanisms by which they act Better define decision context

Request for Proposals 5 Topic Areas ~$1.75 M available – $350K/topic area Timeline – Released July 15 th – Closed August 30 th

Five Topic Areas Linking Habitat and Population Objectives and Integrating Multidisciplinary Conservation Goals Quantification and Evaluation of Relationship between Species and Landscape Endpoints for Priority Systems Characterization of Flow Evaluation and Assessment of Incentives for Natural Resource Management on Private Lands: Identification of Economic and Cultural Endpoints/Indicators Targeting Science Need Themes in the GCPO LCC’s Integrated Science Agenda

Request For Proposals - Response 78 Proposals Submitted Under 5 Topic Areas – Integrating Multidisciplinary Conservation Goals (12) – Evaluating Species and Landscape Endpoints (25) – Characterization of Flow (6) – Economic and Cultural Indicators (11) – Addressing Science Needs from Science Agenda (24)

Proposal Review Process - Structure Reviewers (33) – ASMT (11) – PAC (3) – SC (6) – GCPO LCC Staff (10) – External Partners (5) – Science Coordinators from adjacent LCCs (6)

Proposal Review Process - Structure All reviewers required to sign “Reviewer Conflict of Interest and Confidentiality Agreement” – Disclose real or perceived conflicts Some reviewers reassigned – Maintain confidentiality of proposals and review team discussions

Proposal Review Process - Structure Reviewers provided standard ranking form

Proposal Review Process - Structure Reviewers provided standard ranking rubric

Proposal Review Process - Outcomes Individual reviews compiled by topic area

Proposal Review Process - Outcomes Composite rankings provided to Review Teams

Proposal Review Process –Timeline September 6: Review Team receives proposals September 27: Reviews due back to Tirpak September 30: Topic 3 Review Team convenes October 28-November 15: Review Teams convene to review composite rankings and develop recommendations November 18: Review of recommendations by Partnership Advisory Council November 21: Final project selection by Steering Committee

Portfolio of Selected Science Projects 9 projects – Topic 1: Integrating Multidisciplinary Conservation Goals McGowan – Grassland Habitat Management DSS Riffell – Delivering Open Pine Conditions on Managed Forests – Topic 2: Evaluating Species and Landscape Endpoints Murrow – Black Bear Habitat Modeling Conner – Evaluating Open Pine Conservation Targets Robinson – Developing and Testing Endpoints for Priority Freshwater Aquatic Habitat Types – Topic 3: Characterization of Flow LaFontaine – Assessing Flow for the GCPO LCC – Topic 4: Economic and Cultural Indicators Grala – Landowner Values for Alternative Land Uses – Topic 5: Addressing Science Needs from Science Agenda He – Forest Changes from Climate and Urbanization White – Developing DECs for Open Pine Systems

McGowan Title: Grassland Habitat Management for Diverse Taxa and Stakeholders Cost: $77,110 PIs: McGowan, Lonsdorf, Guyer, Grand Affiliations:USGS AL Coop Unit, Chicago Botanic Gardens, Auburn Subgeography: EGCP Objectives: – Expand existing grassland decision tool to include non- avian species – Incorporate economic and cost considerations into existing DST

Riffel Title: Open Pine Habitat: Desired Ecological States by Managed Forests Cost: $91,368 PIs: Riffell, Wigley, Miller, Deusen Affiliates: MSU, NCASI, Weyerhaeuser Subgeography: East and West Gulf Coastal Plains Objectives: – Evaluate extent to which different forest management techniques provide desired ecological states for open pine – Evaluate potential for operationally-feasible forest management scenarios to provide open pine conditions over time

Murrow Title: GCPO LCC Black Bear Habitat Assessment with Associated Landscape Endpoints Cost: $50,831 PIs: Murrow, Clark, Thatcher Affiliations: UMD, USGS, UT-K Subgeography: Ozark Highlands and MAV Objectives: – Improve and couple existing LA and Ozark bear models – Identify specific forest endpoints associated with bears

Conner Title: Using wildlife habitat models to evaluate management endpoints for open pine woodland and savanna Cost: $132,104 PIs: Conner, Smith Affiliates: Joseph W. Jones Ecological Research Center Subgeography: East and West Gulf Coastal Plains Objective: – Evaluate efficacy of habitat characteristics to be predictive of species occurrence for open pine system endpoints

Robinson Title: Assessment of Water Availability and Streamflow Characteristics in the GCPO LCC for Current and Future Climatic and Landscape Conditions Cost: $170,000 PIs: Robinson, Davis Affiliations: SARP Subgeography: Entire LCC Objective: – Developing and documenting conservation targets for freshwater aquatic priority habitat types identified in Science Agenda Landscape endpoints Species endpoints

LaFontaine Title: Assessment of Water Availability and Streamflow Characteristics in the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative for Current and Future Climatic and Landscape Conditions Cost: $349,787 PIs: LaFontaine, Hay, Archfield, Bock, Hart, Markstrom, Regan, Viger, Hunt, Kern, Montgomery Affiliations: USGS Subgeography: Entire LCC Objectives: – Simulate streamflow using daily time step model – Provide summary products to characterize current and future flow

Grala Title: Assessment of ecosystem service value and program delivery options: establishment of a scalable model for understanding landowner engagement opportunities Cost: $227,148 PIs: Grala, Gordon, Hunt, Cooke, Galik, Olander, Urban, Nelms, Hatcher Affiliates: MSU, Duke, NRCS, Farm Bureau Subgeography: East & West Gulf Coastal Plains, MAV Objectives: – Assess landowner values towards alternative land uses in bottomland hardwood, open pine, and grasslands – Spatially depict variability in landowner preferences for incentive program attributes, information tools, expected participation in EGS program delivery options

He Title: Changes in Forested Landscapes of Gulf Coastal Plains & Ozarks Under Alternative Climate and Urban Growth Scenarios Cost: $259, PIs: He, Thompson, Iverson, Guldin Affiliations: University of Missouri, USFS Subgeography: Entire LCC (-OZH) Objective: – Model landscape change under alternative climate, urbanization, management scenarios

White Title: Developing and Applying Desired Forest Condition Metrics to Enhance Wildlife Habitat and Biodiversity Within Southern “Open Pine” Ecosystems Cost: $125,496 PIs: White, Wilson, Ware Affiliations: NatureServe, USFWS Subgeography: Entire LCC Objectives: – Develop a definitive set of desired forest condition metrics to define wildlife needs and ecological integrity – Develop a protocol to use in assessing ecosystem integrity

Science Need Themes Define desired states for each habitat in terms of specific endpoints – White – Developing DECs for Open Pine Systems – Robinson – Developing and Testing Endpoints for Priority Freshwater Aquatic Habitat Types – McGowan – Grassland Habitat Management DSS Species-habitat relationships for species indicative of desired states for habitats – Murrow – Black Bear Habitat Modeling – Conner – Evaluating Open Pine Conservation Targets ID of indicators for economically and culturally sustainable landscapes – Riffell – Delivering Open Pine Conditions on Managed Forests – Grala – Landowner Values for Alternative Land Uses Current assessment of landscape – LaFontaine – Assessing Flow for the GCPO LCC Prediction of alternative future landscapes – He – Forest Changes from Climate and Urbanization ID prominent drivers of system change and mechanisms by which they act Better define decision context Portfolio of Selected Science Projects

Technical Advisory Teams Form – Established for each project – At least 3 to 5 individuals who have knowledge and expertise related to the research topic Understand LCC’s interests and desired outcomes Member of “target audience” for research Function – Serve as sounding board for PIs – Ensure projects accomplish the desired outcomes Liability for products remains with PI and agreement administrators

Technical Advisory Teams Specific responsibilities – Participate in 1-3 webinars at start of project Ensure common expectations of objectives, methods, products, and outcomes between partners and PIs Provide input on key questions and issues for PIs – Read progress reports and participate in webinars biannually Ensure adequate progress is being made towards desired outcomes – Provide recommendations on and ultimately approve final reports and products

Technical Advisory Teams Seeking volunteers to serve on TATs Interested or know someone that is? – Call – – Write in chat box February 1 st deadline

Science Need Themes Define desired states for each habitat in terms of specific endpoints – White – Developing DECs for Open Pine Systems – Robinson – Developing and Testing Endpoints for Priority Freshwater Aquatic Habitat Types – McGowan – Grassland Habitat Management DSS Species-habitat relationships for species indicative of desired states for habitats – Murrow – Black Bear Habitat Modeling – Conner – Evaluating Open Pine Conservation Targets ID of indicators for economically and culturally sustainable landscapes – Riffell – Delivering Open Pine Conditions on Managed Forests – Grala – Landowner Values for Alternative Land Uses Current assessment of landscape – LaFontaine – Assessing Flow for the GCPO LCC Prediction of alternative future landscapes – He – Forest Changes from Climate and Urbanization ID prominent drivers of system change and mechanisms by which they act Better define decision context

Multi-LCC Projects Interior Least Tern Population and Habitat Monitoring Landward Migration of Wetlands in Response to Sea-level Rise and Urbanization Providing Training Opportunities to LCC Partners: Introduction to SDM – February Auburn University Mississippi River Connectivity: Hypoxia and Wildlife Corridor

Science Need Themes Define desired states for each habitat in terms of specific endpoints – White – Developing DECs for Open Pine Systems – Robinson – Developing and Testing Endpoints for Priority Freshwater Aquatic Habitat Types – McGowan – Grassland Habitat Management DSS Species-habitat relationships for species indicative of desired states for habitats – Murrow – Black Bear Habitat Modeling – Conner – Evaluating Open Pine Conservation Targets ID of indicators for economically and culturally sustainable landscapes – Riffell – Delivering Open Pine Conditions on Managed Forests – Grala – Landowner Values for Alternative Land Uses Current assessment of landscape – LaFontaine – Assessing Flow for the GCPO LCC – Interior Least Tern Population and Habitat Monitoring Prediction of alternative future landscapes – He – Forest Changes from Climate and Urbanization – Landward Migration of Wetlands in Response to Sea-level Rise and Urbanization ID prominent drivers of system change and mechanisms by which they act Better define decision context – Providing Training Opportunities to LCC Partners: Introduction to SDM – Mississippi River Connectivity: Hypoxia and Wildlife Corridor

National LCC Project Integration of Conservation Design Across LCCs of the Eastern United States

Strategic Plan Developed and approved by the Steering Committee Outlines – Vision – Mission – Challenges – Long-range goals – Way of working – 5-year strategies

Strategic Plan Mission – To define a shared vision for sustainable natural and cultural resources in the face of a changing climate and other threats; design strategies to achieve that vision; and deliver results on the ground through leadership, partnerships, contributed resources, evaluation and refinement over time

Strategic Plan Long-range goal – Collaboratively identify and agree on the best and most representative examples of healthy ecosystems as priorities for conservation and management

Strategic Plan Conservation Science Strategy – The GCPO LCC will work with our partners and other organizations …to develop a robust science agenda that employs the principles of adaptive management on a landscape scale, and which defines a future conservation landscape capable of sustaining natural and cultural resources at desired levels

Strategic Plan Conservation Delivery Strategy – The GCPO LCC will develop the appropriate tools, [and] decision support…to facilitate strategic and coordinated conservation delivery

Priority LCC Activities for 2014 Landscape and Species Assessments

Priority LCC Activities for 2014 Landscape Conservation Design – Conservation decisions often reflect an unstated logic on why a specific action is taken at a specific place to affect a specific target – Spatial depiction of this logic is conservation design

Priority LCC Products for 2014 Landscape Assessment – “State of the Systems” Report Landscape Conservation Design – A Conservation Blueprint for the GCPO LCC

Conservation Blueprint for GCPO LCC Rapid integration of existing priorities while avoiding pitfalls of inappropriate overlays Many types of “priorities” – Where we work – Where we could work – Where we should work Niche – Geographic scale – Cross-partner perspective – Incorporation of future change

Efforts Supporting a Blueprint Ozark Highlands Comprehensive Conservation Strategy Participants – SWAP Coordinators from AR, MO, and OK – Central Hardwoods Joint Venture – Gulf Coastal Plains & Ozarks LCC Products – A spatial data layer prioritizing conservation actions across AR, MO, and OK Currently being piloted in two habitats – Pine-Oak Woodland – Glades Plans to expand to other terrestrial and all aquatic habitat types

Efforts Supporting a Blueprint Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment Participants – Four Gulf Coast LCCs (GCPO, GCP, PF, and SA) – Gulf of Mexico Alliance Products – Phase I – A report on vulnerability of these systems to anticipated changes – Phase II – Prioritized conservation actions Currently being piloted in four habitats – Oyster reefs – Mangroves – Tidal marsh – Barrier island beaches and dunes

Efforts Supporting a Blueprint Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy Participants – SEAFWA – SNRLG – 6 Southeast LCCs (GCPO, App, Carib, GCP, PF, SA) Six Essential Work Areas – Communicating Conservation – Building a Southeast Habitat Network – Understanding Governance Structures – Conservation Leadership Summit – A Collaborative Monitoring Network – SECAS Coordination

Efforts Supporting a Blueprint Integrating Conservation Design Across Eastern LCCs Participants – Nine “Eastern” LCCs (GCPO, App, Carib, ETP&BR, GCP, NA, PF, UM&GL, SA) – USFS – UConn Products – A technical guide that compiles and compares the methods, assumptions, data requirements, and strengths and limitations of existing modeling approaches for landscape conservation design. – A white paper that outlines opportunities and challenges in making outputs from alternative conservation design models compatible and seamless – A seamless product for some elements of a conservation design across at least two LCC areas that clearly demonstrates means of unifying inputs and/or outputs from two or more conservation frameworks

Challenges for ASMT How do we effectively leverage all this collective work? How do ensure these individual efforts are adding up to a meaningful whole? How do we make progress on a conservation blueprint for the GCPO LCC without getting trapped in the weeds or producing something so rough as to be useless?

Potential Solutions Increased involvement of ASMT members and LCC partners in these efforts – Technical Advisory Teams – Regional Design Initiatives In-person ASMT Meeting – Summer 2014 – Explore these individual efforts in more depth Review and refine conservation targets/desired states Review ongoing science Evaluate the State of the System report Take a first crack at prioritizing the landscape – Conservation Blueprint v.1

Next Steps and Needs Populate TATs and host kick-off meetings Update Science Agenda – version 5 – Incorporate latest round of comments – Link the science projects into the agenda – Expand to include design Offer opportunities to engage in existing regional design initiatives Arrange and host a summer meeting – Clarify objectives, outcomes, agenda – Doodle for time and location; logistics – Meet and work

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