Jesse Hiss, Jack Pillsbury, Mick Schroeder, Clayton Vance, Harrison Williams

Outline 1) Projecting Hamels future value using his current value with risk involved 2) Putting a dollar value on that WAR 3) Finding possible trade partners 4) Valuing those prospects based on WAR, age, position, and rank and associated a dollar value with that 5) Coming up with possible trade packages that provides the most value for the teams involved 6) Estimating added wins 7) Calculating added revenue for those teams

Stage 1 Finding Hamels Present and Future Value To find Hamels PV we used a combination of our own SIERA calculation and a consistency rating. Calculated SIERA – K%, BB%, GB – (FB+IFFB) Consistency rating – Our SIERA + WAR + FIP weighted over the last 3 years

Hamels Current Value Pitcher NameCalculated SIERAConsistency Value 1Felix Hernandez Clayton Kershaw David Price Chris Sale Max Scherzer Zack Greinke Cole Hamels Madison Bumgarner James Shields Adam Wainwright Jeff Samardzija R.A. Dickey Jordan Zimmermann Justin Verlander Hiroki Kuroda

Stage 1 Finding his future value over control years Combination of projected WAR calculations and player comparisons Weighted his projected WAR at 40% and his player comps at 60% Comparisons - pitchers with similar: stats through age 30 physical attributes mechanics pitching style pitch tendencies

Pitchers Comparisons Tom Glavine Roy Oswalt Chuck Finley Cliff Lee Mark Buehrle Pedro Martinez

The Johan Santana Comparison Cole Hamel’s Pitch Breakdown compared to Johan Santana’s Average Velocity on FB over course of career both 91.2 Hamels Santana

Stage 1 Hamels WAR from Standard Deviation = % Confidence Interval = +/ Wins

Stage 1 Hamels WAR from 31-35

Stage 1 95% Confidence Interval

Stage 2 Putting a Dollar Value on Hamels WAR

Stage 3 Risk Assessment- Hamels Factors that influence future injuries, ranked in order of importance – Past Injuries – Decreased FB Velocity – Pitch Type – Mechanics – Injury Before Age 24 – Pitcher Comparisons

Past Injuries Elbow Tendonitis (minors) missed 40 games (20) Elbow Ligament soreness, missed 30 games (23) Surgery on elbow in off season, returned healthy for 2012 opener Reported shoulder soreness, nothing came of it

Injury Adjustment

Stage 3 Finding Possible Trade Partners

Stage 4 Valuing Prospects Method: – Player age, position and level gave us a risk value (low, med, high) – Examined prospect ranking charts – Equated above findings to find their surplus value over first 6 years of service time

Trade Option 2

Jameson Taillon (RHP) Total Surplus Value = $26.88 Baseball America #31 Pirates #2 Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 60 “potential number two starter” 2 nd Overall Pick in the 2010 Draft out of HS Age: 23

Austin Meadows (OF) Total Surplus Value= $22.54 Million Baseball America #46 Pirates #4 Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 65 | Arm: 40 | Field: 60 | Overall: 55 “He has a smooth left-handed swing and an advanced approach at the plate” 9 th pick in 2013 Draft out of HS Age: 19

Jacoby Jones (2B/OF) Total Surplus Value≈ 5 Million. Pirates #12 Scouting grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 50 | Run: 65 |Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45 “Jones has the tools to do just about everything on the baseball field” 3 rd Round Pick in 2013 out of LSU Age: 22

Trade Option 2 - Pirates

Trade Option 2 - Phillies

Converting Wins to Revenue Increase in wins effect on playoff revenue Increase in wins effect on ticket revenue

Postseason Effect on Revenue % Increase in Revenue

Pirates

2014 vs – 14.6% increase in revenue Average 10.1% and 14.6% 12.35% Increase

Playoff Percentage vs. Wins

Non Linear Regression

Trade Option 2 – Playoff Revenue Added

Wins vs. Attendance

Trade Option 2 – Ticket Revenue Added

Trade Option 2 – Total Revenue Added

Red Sox Surplus OF

Projecting Nava’s Potential Effect

Who needs closer help?

Trade Option 1

Manuel Margot (OF) Total Surplus Value= $20.4 Million Baseball America #99 Red Sox # 5 Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 65 | Arm: 50 | Field: 60 | Overall: 50 “very quick hands and a patient approach at the plate” “Already skipped a level, on track to reach the Majors at age 22” Age: 20

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) Total Surplus Value= $17.8 Million Baseball America #65 Red Sox #4 Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50 “throws his fastball in the low 90s, with good sink and movement” “profiles as a possible middle-of-the rotation starter” Age: 21

Jeff Hoffman (RHP) Total Surplus Value= $14.2 Million Baseball America #87 Blue Jays #3 Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 65 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55 “he works in the mid 90s and hits 98 mph with his fastball” 9 th pick in the 2014 Draft Age: 22

Trey Ball (LHP) Total Surplus Value≈ 4 million Red Sox #11 Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 45 | Overall: 50 “An excellent athlete, Ball was considered the top two-way player in the 2013 Draft class (7 th overall)” “Ball's ceiling might be the highest of all of the Red Sox pitching prospects” Age: 20

Trade Option 1 - Blue Jays

Trade Option 1 - Red Sox

Trade Option 1 - Phillies

Trade Option 1 – Playoff Revenue Added

Trade Option 1 – Ticket Revenue Added

224,917 ÷ 81 Home games 2,776 Per Game 37,811 Max Capacity - 36,495 Avg Attendance 1,316 Per Game

Trade Option 1 – Total Revenue Added

Sources Diamond Dollars by Vince Gennaro

Questions?