Climate Change, Tipping Points, and the Media Erika Engelhaupt Environmental Science and Technology Arctic Forum 2008

Kyoto Protocol IPCC TAR Katrina UN Development Program 2007/08 Report Gore movie “skeptics”

Has media coverage reached a tipping point? How Industry May Change Climate The New York Times The amount of carbon dioxide in the air will double by the year 2080 and raise the temperature an average of at least 4 per cent.

Will this picture save the world? Telegraph March 4, 2007 Scientists: Most Polar Bears Dead By 2050 CBS News Sept 7, 2007 “Drowning polar bears may provide the human 'tipping point' to tackle climate change”

Changing coverage US study was high in , declined ‘balanced’ reporting (roughly equal coverage to both sides) was high in , declined UK study Content analysis found tabloids did not improve accuracy from ; UK and US “prestige press” did “interviews indicate that inaccurate reporting may be linked to the lack of specialist journalists in the tabloid press.” Boykoff, Area 2007 Boykoff, Env. Res. Letters 2008

Journalistic Norms Novelty Novelty Balance Balance Authority Authority Personalization Personalization Dramatization Dramatization Boykoff and Boykoff 2007 Culture clash?  Not educators or translators  Different peer review

Americans naming climate change as the world’s biggest environmental problem jumped from 16% in 2006 to 33% in (Washington Post/Time/ABC/Stanford University) 82% of Americans believe global warming exists, up 5 points from (Fox News, February 2007)

Tipping Points

What Are Tipping Points? James Hansen: a point where calamitous change becomes unavoidable James Hansen: a point where calamitous change becomes unavoidable Statisticians: a bifurcation in a dynamical system Statisticians: a bifurcation in a dynamical system sea ice scientist : A threshold such that a rapid change is imminent and irreversible sea ice scientist : A threshold such that a rapid change is imminent and irreversible sea level rise scientist : A step change in climate, when the climate system shifts to some new state. (i.e. the melting of ice in glaciers and ice sheets) sea level rise scientist : A step change in climate, when the climate system shifts to some new state. (i.e. the melting of ice in glaciers and ice sheets) scientist at policy NGO: an abrupt or irreversible change in the internal dynamics in a system in response to an external driver crossing a threshold scientist at policy NGO: an abrupt or irreversible change in the internal dynamics in a system in response to an external driver crossing a threshold Policy: large shift in attitudes or political will Policy: large shift in attitudes or political will Media: big change? Media: big change?

Senator James Inhofe (R-OK), 2007: “the man-made global warming fear machine crossed the ‘tipping point’ in I am convinced that future climate historians will look back at 2007 as the year the global warming fears began crumbling.” Tipping Points Debate on Climate Shifts to Issue of Irreparable Change Some Experts on Global Warming Foresee 'Tipping Point' When It Is Too Late to Act Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post January 29, 2006; A1 Carbon Emissions: Catch them if you can CNN International - May 4, 2008 Many scientists believe the CO2 "tipping point" has been passed already. There is already too much C02 sitting in the atmosphere.

I never found the notion of "tipping points" to be a very useful contribution to public discourse. The concept is ill-defined and very prone to be misunderstood — as in: we've passed a tipping point so it's too late to do anything (might as well have a party). -Ray Pierrehumbert on realclimate.org

What You Can Do Your first challenge: define tipping points Your first challenge: define tipping points Prepare for interviews Prepare for interviews Know your PIO-- help with press releases Know your PIO-- help with press releases Redirect reporter if needed Redirect reporter if needed Give reporters feedback Give reporters feedback Encourage students interested in writing Encourage students interested in writing Do not give up Do not give up

UN Development Program 2007/08 Report 40 newspapers