Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani1 Spying from from Outer Space or Managing Global Nuclear Threat and Verifying Treaties? Bhupendra Jasani Department of War Studies King’s College London UK

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani2 Introduction Security Concept Recently two reports have have identified threats to national and international security: 1. The Solana Report, issued by the European Union (EU) in December 2003 that identified the following threats: terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), regional conflicts, state failure and organised crime; 2. A 2004 UN report, issued by the former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan that identified poverty, infectious disease, environmental degradation, conflict between and within states, proliferation of WMD, terrorism, and trans-national organised crime;  While the UN has taken a broader view of security by including poverty, infectious disease, and environmental degradation, there is, by and large an agreement on the threat perceptions between regional and international communities;  This presentation deals with one of the most important element of security, arms control, disengagement and peace treaties.

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani3 Multilateral arms control treaties  For these to be meaningful, they have to be effectively verified;  With increasing capabilities of civil/commercial satellites and more and more states launching and operating their own satellites, their application to monitoring arms control treaties on a multilateral basis becomes possible. Examples of such treaties are:  1970 NPT  1992 CFE Treaty  1993 CWC  2003 a ceasefire, disengagement and security agreement - such as Sudan Agreement  1996 CTBT (Opened for signature but not in force yet)  Future treaties  e.g. a treaty on the cut-off of the production of weapons usable fissile materials (FMCT)

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani4 Performance of panchromatic sensors  States such as China, France, India, Israel, Japan, Russia and USA have developed their own spacecraft and they launch them and operate them;  Performance of a sensor is assessed by, spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions;  Consider the spatial resolution of a panchromatic sensor which range from 30m to 0.41m on current spacecraft

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani5 Performances multi- and hyper-spectral sensors  Some of the sensors also deploy multi- spectral and hyper-spectral devices

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani6 Examples of what can be seen nuclear fuel cycle – thermal signature that could distinguish between Pu production facility and power production reactor IKONOS-2 image taken on 11 November 1999 at 1m resolution; Bruce Nuclear power plant. Source: SpaceImaging Landsat image with bands 6 as red (120m), 7 as green and 4 as blue (28.5m) over Bruce plants Source: EOSAT

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani7 Positions of Indian spacecraft in orbit shows high temporal resolution

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani8 Are observations from satellites enough?  Information from satellites only is not enough  Many open sources of information are available that must be used  Examples are “grey literature”, technical and trade journals, news paper articles, internet, and institutes and universities

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani9 Examples of open sources  “Grey literature” under which information is open but not readily accessible; e.g. annual reports by companies, conference papers, congressional hearings or parliamentary proceedings etc  Technical and trade journals, such as those produced by the Jane’s Publications in UK, news paper articles  Internet  Institutes and universities

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani10 Examples of some treaty monitoring  Consider first nuclear energy and weapons related facilities;  Targets studied were some of the nuclear facilities and weapon sytems;  Identification of civil and military targets and their locations;  As an example consider part of the nuclear fuel cycle.

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani11 Nuclear fuel cycle  Nuclear power reactors and weapons require fissile materials: e.g. U-235 and Pu-239;  U-233 is also usable but not employed in practice  U-235 and Pu-239 are produced in enrichment facilities and nuclear reactors respectively

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani12 Space capability for the Middle East  We have some idea of the capabilities of commercial observation satellites;  Data from these are openly available;  As a result, in Europe we have been able to establish a European Satellite Centre for arms control and confidence monitoring and crisis management;  I have suggested that a similar agency could be established in the Middle East.

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani13 Space capability for the Middle East - continued  In the Middle-East there is an increasing feeling towards cooperation and away from confrontation;  Middle-East peace process is indicative of this;  Such tendencies are perceived in the Gulf region also;  An example of the latter is the gradual improvement towards cooperation within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC);  The success of such a development may be initiated with the development of confidence-building measures (CBMs);  Adequate CBMs could overcome deep-rooted suspicions that often result in conflicts.

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani14 Space capability for the Middle East - CSBMs  Suitable CBMs could help build trust making it possible to realise the concept of collective security;  In the Middle East CBMs are not entirely new;  The 1974 and 1975 Egyptian-Israeli disengagement and the 1979 peace treaty are examples of measures under which extensive CBMs have been developed;  For example, demilitarised and reduced force areas and third-party verification systems have been established;  An example is the 1974 reduced forces agreement between Israel and Syria with 3rd-party verification measures (UN);  Moreover, after the Gulf War, the Madrid peace process introduced the multilateral Arms Control and Regional Security (ACRS) talks that did not get very far.

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani15 Space capability for the Middle East – Peacekeeping Operation  QuickBird satellite images acquired over the Internet using Google Earth software

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani16  Observation s from space could be a very important CBM  Examples of what can be seen from commercial remote sensing satellites Space capability for the Middle East – CBM Golan Heights Israeli side

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani17 Space capability for the Middle East – CBM Golan Heights Syrian side

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani18 Space capability for the Middle East – CBM Golan Heights Syrian side

Presentation at IIFWP210909: Jasani19 Some conclusions  Commercial remote sensing satellite capabilities are such that not only can they contribute to arms control treaty verification but in other areas of security also;  For example; conflict reduction, peace agreements (e.g. Sudan Peace Agreement), peace keeping operations (Like Golan Heights) and humanitarian assistance;  The latter would be for detection of refugees and monitoring their movements in order to deliver them aid (particular interest to the UN High Commission for Refugees);  Thus, we have some of the following options:  Encourage more and more UN specialised agencies, e.g. OPCW, CTBTO and UNHCR, to use satellite imagery;  Encourage more regional satellite monitoring agencies, like EUSC, in, for example, the Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, Latin America and Africa;  Ultimately develop a UN International Satellite Monitoring Agency