Energy and the Fossil-Fuel Age

V. Smil, “Energy in World History” “Fundamentally, no civilization on Earth can be anything but a solar society…” p. 157 “Whereas preindustrial societies tapped virtually … inexhaustible (solar) energy flows, modern civilization depends on extracting …finite fossil energy that could not be replenished even in 100 million years.” p. 157 “Unlike its predecessors, fossil-fueled civilization cannot last thousands of years.” p.158

Six Stages of the Energy Crisis Between 1955 and 1971, demand in the U.S. was outstripping supply 1972 rise in oil prices – OPEC – Embargo and panic President Ford – focus almost entirely on supply – no long term policy 1979 – Iran and a Second Oil Crisis – Regan Era – OPEC overproduction and new sources

Nye – pp.222-3: “The oil shock of was a symptom, not a cause. The shortages revealed the energy dependence and the vulnerability that the United States had been building up for decades. The high-energy middle-class standard of living was not a victim of the energy crisis; it was the source of the crisis. Compared with equally affluent Europeans, Americans used roughly twice as much energy per capita. Half the difference was directly attributable to their transportation systems, and much of the rest was due to their preference for widely spaced detached houses.

We will mine more, drill more, cut more timber." --Secretary of the Interior James Watt

World energy use Coal Nuclear Oil (34.9%) Gas Hydro Biomass Geothermal, wind, solar, etc. RE (13.4%) Total ~400 Quadrillion Btu World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day

U.S. Energy Consumption Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006

U.S. Energy Production Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006

Electricity Generation Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006

Fertilizer Production Efficiency

Energy and Crop Yield

Frank Moore – Black Pillow (1996) Turning Petroleum into Food or Fuel

Cereal Shortfall

M. King Hubbert October 5th, October 11th, 1989 "Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know."M. King Hubbert