Climate Change Planning in Alaska’s National Parks 1 How can National Park Service managers best protect the natural and cultural resources and values within their jurisdiction in the face of climate change?

Overall Project Summary  Changing climatic conditions are rapidly impacting environmental, social, and economic conditions in and around National Park System areas in Alaska.  Alaska park managers need to better understand possible climate change trends in order to better manage Arctic, subarctic, and coastal ecosystems and human uses.  NPS and the University of Alaska’s Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning (UAF-SNAP) are collaborating on a three-year project that will help Alaska NPS managers, cooperating personnel, and key stakeholders to develop plausible climate change scenarios for all NPS areas in Alaska. 2

 Forecast Planning  One Future  Scenario Planning  Multiple Futures  Scenarios overcome the tendency to predict, allowing us to see multiple possibilities for the future Scenario Planning vs. Forecasting +10% -10% Uncertainties Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group © 2010 Monitor Company Group What we know today 3

Corporations that derived value from scenarios  Shell: pioneered the commercial use of scenarios; prepared for and navigated the oil crises of the 1970s, and the opening of the Russian market in the 1990s  Morgan Stanley Japan: identified looming problems in Asian financial markets in the late 1990s. Held back on retail investments, and engaged fully with governments and regulators.  UPS: in the late 1990s, used scenarios to identify and explore the powerful forces of globalization and consumer power. As a result, made significant investments (like Mail Boxes Etc) that enabled them to directly reach the end consumer.  Microsoft: Amidst great uncertainty, Microsoft used scenarios (including early indicators) to provide signals as to which platforms/technologies/channels would prevail. 4

One corporation that… didn’t 5 Eastman Kodak  Failure to diversify adequately  Did not correctly read emerging markets  Acted slowly, waiting for “perfect” products  Complacency

Background Information: Climate models and scenarios planning 6

Background Information: Reconstruction of summer Arctic temperatures [Kaufman et al., 2009, Science]

Alaska annual temperature anomalies Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index PDO Index Background Information: Variability and uncertainty

Monthly temperature projections for Anaktuvuk Pass A1B (mid-range) scenario) Background Information: SNAP data

Projected monthly precipitation for Anaktuvuk Pass Background Information: SNAP data

Mean annual soil temp. (2 m depth)  

Background Information: Simulated annual burn area in Alaska (ALFRESCO)

Climate Change in Alaska: the bottom line  Change is happening, and will continue for decades regardless of mitigation efforts.  Key tipping points may be crossed, e.g fire, permafrost, sea ice, biome shift, glacial loss.  High uncertainty results in divergent possible futures for many important variables. alaskarenewableenergy.org 13

Explaining Scenarios: A Basic GBN Scenario Creation Process What are the implications of these scenarios for our strategic issue, and what actions should we take in light of them? What is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address? What critical forces will affect the future of our issue? How do we combine and synthesize these forces to create a small number of alternative stories? As new information unfolds, which scenarios seem most valid? Does this affect our decisions and actions? This diagram describes the 5 key steps required in any scenario planning process 14 Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group © 2010 Monitor Company Group

Step one: Orient What is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address? How will climate change effects impact the landscapes within which management units are placed over the next 50 to 100 years? How can NPS managers best preserve (protect?) the natural and cultural resources and values within their jurisdiction in the face of climate change? To answer this challenge, we need to explore a broader question: Gates of the Arctic National Park photo credits: Tom Moran, Jay Cable, Amy Marsh

Explaining Scenarios: A Basic GBN Scenario Creation Process What are the implications of these scenarios for our strategic issue, and what actions should we take in light of them? What is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address? What critical forces will affect the future of our issue? How do we combine and synthesize these forces to create a small number of alternative stories? As new information unfolds, which scenarios seem most valid? Does this affect our decisions and actions? This diagram describes the 5 key steps required in any scenario planning process 16 Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group © 2010 Monitor Company Group

Step Two: Explore What critical forces (drivers) will affect the future of our issue? Critical forces generally have unusually high impact and unusually high uncertainty We are aiming to create scenarios that are: Challenging Divergent Plausible Relevant 17 Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group © 2010 Monitor Company Group

Arctic Park Units Climate Variable Projected Change by 2050 Projected Change by 2100 Patterns of ChangeConfidence Source Temperature +2.5°C ±1.5°C +5°C ±2°C More pronounced in N and autumn-winter >95% for increase IPCC (2007); SNAP/UAF Precipitation (rain and snow) Winter snowfall Autumn rain and snow Winter snowfall Autumn rain and snow Increased % falls as rain in shoulder seasons High uncertainty in timing of snow onset and melt AMAP/SWIPA; SNAP/UAF Freeze-up Date5-10 days later10-20 days later Largest change near coast >90% SNAP/UAF Length of Ice-free Season (rivers, lakes) ↑ 7-10 days ↑ days Largest change near coast >90% IPCC (2007); SNAP/UAF Length of Growing Season ↑ 10–20 days ↑ 20–40 days Largest change near coast >90% IPCC (2007); SNAP/UAF River and Stream Temps ↑ 1–3°C ↑ 2–4°C Earlier breakup, higher summer temps >90% Kyle & Brabets (2001) Water Availability↓ 0–20% ↓ 10–40% Longer summer, thicker active layer >66% varies by region SNAP/UAF; Wilderness Society Relative Humidity 0% ±10% ↑ or ↓ 0% ±15% ↑ or ↓ Absolute humidity increases 50% as likely as not SNAP/UAF Wind Speed ↑ 2–4% ↑ 4–8% More pronounced in winter & spring >90% for increase Abatzoglou & Brown PDOUncertain Major effect on Alaska temps in cold season High degree of natural variation Hartmann & Wendler (2005) Extreme Events: Temperature 3-6x more warm events; 3-5x fewer cold events 5-8x more warm events; 8-12x fewer cold events ↑ warm events, ↓ cold events >95% likely Abatzoglou & Brown; Timlin & Walsh (2007) Extreme Events: Precipitation Change of –20% to +50% ↑ winter ↓ spring Uncertain Abatzoglou & Brown Extreme Events: Storms ↑ frequency/intensity Increase>66% Loehman (2011)

Climate Change Scenario Drivers TEMPERATURE AND LINKED VARIABLES: thaw, freeze, season length, extreme days, permafrost, ice, freshwater temperature PRECIPITATION AND LINKED VARIABLES: rain, snow, water availability, storms and flooding, humidity PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO): definition, effects, and predictability SEA LEVEL: erosion also linked to sea ice and storms OCEAN ACIDIFICATION 19

20 Driver 1 Driver 2 Combining two selected drivers creates four possible futures CLIMATE SCENARIOS BIOREGION: ______________

Avoid pairs of drivers that are too similar – think of the effects of crossing them with one another Choose drivers that lead to the effects that are most critical Pick drivers with a wide range of possible outcomes Choose drivers that impact several sectors, e.g tourism, subsistence, and wildlife, not just one Select drivers with effects in most of the parks in the network Select drivers with a high enough likelihood to be convincing to stakeholders 21

Climate Effects Climate effects are the outcomes of the critical forces or drivers, as expressed by significant changes in particular parks. Points to consider include:  Time frame (20 years? 100 years?)  Uncertainty (of both driver and effect)  Severity of effect (and reversibility)  Scope: what parks, who is impacted?  Repercussions: what is the story?  Feedback to policy 22

Climate Effects 23 NPS and SNAP summarized a wide range of potential effects of climate change, based on the best available modeling, observations, and published literature.

Climate Effects 24 Participants reviewed, discussed, and amended these effects tables prior to the workshop. They also voted on the relative importance of each potential effect.

Western Arctic case study 26

27 Mean summer season length. These maps show the projected number of days between the date on which the running mean temperature crosses the freezing point in the spring, and date on which when that point is crossed again in the fall. The above-freezing season is likely to be up to 40 days longer by the end of this century.

Ranking of scenario drivers Bering Land Bridge 28 Climate variable/driverUncertaintyImportanceVotes TemperatureMH4 PrecipitationMH Relative HumidityML Length of growing seasonMM-H3 Ocean acidificationHH1 Sea ice extent (decline)MH7 Extreme weather events (severity and frequency) HH4 Coastal permafrost degradationHH3 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)HH1 Sea level riseLH3 Change in hydrologic regimeHM-H2 Length of ice-free seasonMH Freeze-up dateM-HH Wind pattern shiftsLM SnowpackMH2 FireM-HM Interior permafrost degradationMH L, M, H = low, medium, high. Votes reflect how many group members selected each driver, given three votes per person. The highlighted drivers were selected for the BELA scenarios. For the purposes of scenario planning, the goal was to select two drivers with high importance (in order to maximize the relevance of resulting scenarios) and high uncertainty (in order to maximize divergence).

Explaining Scenarios: A Basic GBN Scenario Creation Process What are the implications of these scenarios for our strategic issue, and what actions should we take in light of them? What is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address? What critical forces will affect the future of our issue? How do we combine and synthesize these forces to create a small number of alternative stories? As new information unfolds, which scenarios seem most valid? Does this affect our decisions and actions? This diagram describes the 5 key steps required in any scenario planning process 29 Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group © 2010 Monitor Company Group

. 30 ”Hotwash” B “Overrun” A “Contemporary Change” C “Stormy Weather” D Tempe rature +5°C/8°C by 2050/2100 Increased severity, frequency Current severity, frequency +1°C/2°C by 2050/2100 Extreme Precipitation and Storm Events Each quadrant represents a different combination of potential future temperature and extreme precipitation and storm events Primary matrix of drivers, BELA group

The “Hotwash” scenario envisions a much warmer and much stormier future, as compared to the early 21 st century. Potential effects of such conditions include:  More coastal erosion  Increased rain on snow events  Increased travel danger  Increased sedimentation and river erosion  Decrease in marine mammals  Migratory birds change  Large scale losses of archaeological resources  Increased fire  More shrub expansion and lichen loss  Decreased winter caribou range  Infrastructure and habitat loss even more severe than other quadrants due to permafrost loss  Increased risk of village relocation/destruction  Boreal forest expansion, moves in to tundra areas  Infrastructure and habitat loss due to permafrost loss  Increased risk of village relocation/destruction  Boreal forest expansion  Ocean development, ocean travel and tourism, oil and gas, mining, fisheries leading to increased risk for subsistence users (but also more employment). Less tourism development due to storms.  Increased risk of oil spills and associated losses of fish, wildlife, habitat, and ecosystem services  Marine noise and disturbance affect subsistence  Loss of arctic endemic species, e.g. musk ox, tundra hares  Aquatic invasive species  Increased disease and insects  Possible reduction in freight costs 31

Scenarios nested in a sociopolitical framework 32 The two nested scenarios selected by the BELA group are marked by blue stars. Participants examined possible futures in a sociopolitical framework that incorporated a wide range of societal concern and institutional support.

33 Cultural Resources Massive loss of archaeological sites due to erosion, irretrievable loss of cultural history and possible compromise of park mandate Facilities/ Infrastructure Potentially greater need to accommodate cruise ships and road travel, but no funding and large erosion problems Social/Economic/Subsistence Decreased subsistence harvests Health impacts with loss of important sources of nutrition Loss of important social roles Increased costs of living due to substitution of expensive imported food Huge increase in social problems associated with relocation of village residents Community evacuation leads to dispersion to cities and other communities Dispersion (diaspora) causes breakdown of sharing networks, cultural socialization, traditional roles Institutional help and protections against damage to communities is missing, leading to more rapid erosion, destruction Dissolution of community from storm surges may lead to a loss of traditional ways of life Damage to community infrastructure may lead to a rise in the cost of living Natural Resources Loss of biodiversity through decreased ice and heating of riverine systems; loss of marine mammal species; loss of subsistence fish. Sea level rise may exacerbate damage from storm surges Sea ice season recedes and is limited to about one month/year, limiting ability to hunt on ice and exacerbating erosion Changing migration patterns could result in inappropriate harvest seasons, methods and take/limits Erosion of landing sites; impact to delivery of bulk cargo (e.g. fuel); rising cost of living Storms will have been hammering the coast for several decades, causing massive erosion and communities washing away Shrubs and forest encroaching leading to more moose and beaver Inland permafrost degradation leading to damaged roads, new developable thawed lands Communication Less funding for interpretation and no strong forums for discussion due to community losses and funding cuts Great needs for communities near the park to communicate needs and get help

Keep in mind…. Scenario planning involves synthesizing results to create a small number of alternative stories Sixteen (or more) choices available (4x4) Need to select only 3-4 to turn into narratives and planning tools Focus on scenarios that are:  Challenging  Divergent  Relevant  Plausible Create a narrative (story) about each scenario 34

Keep in mind… NameSpeciesHair/FurAge Appetite Level Size Preliminary Porridge Assessment Preliminary Mattress Assessment GoldilocksHumanBlonde8ModeratePetiteN/A PapaBearBrown12HighBigToo HotToo Hard MamaBearTawny11ModerateMediumToo ColdToo Soft BabyBear Red- Brown 3LowSmallJust Right Effective storytelling matters! 35 Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group © 2010 Monitor Company Group

36 The Sign ( a short skit set several decades into the future) A family is on a beach that used to be part of Bering Land Bridge National Preserve. The family is hunting for sea lions. The hunters have gone up to the haul-out. As they wait for the hunters to return, a young woman picks up an old faded sign with only a couple of letters left on it. “I wonder what this was?” she says to her grandmother. “Anyhow, it would make a good table. There’s plenty of other driftwood for the fire.” The grandmother says, “Oh, that’s the old park service sign.” The young woman sets up the old sign as a table. The old woman says, “I’m so glad my nephew came to hunt with us. It’s been almost a year now since we lost his brother. That was so hard for him, and for all of us. His father was such a good provider, until he moved to Nome. The family kind of fell apart then, when the village was evacuated. That was really a shame. The storms got so bad, and we just couldn’t get any help, not even rocks. There was no clean water anymore either. Folks were getting sick. Things got really bad. Even before the big storm, the village was cut off when the flooding washed out all the roads.” As they make the fire, the young woman says, “I sure hope the hunters get lucky. It’s too bad our cousin in Nome didn’t have the opportunity to harvest sea lions. He sure would have had fun, and he’d like the meat. I miss the taste of walrus, though, from when I was little.” The grandmother says, “Your cousin sure had a hard time in high school. I regret that he didn’t have the chance to learn the traditional skills his father had.” Her granddaughter nods. “And he could have done a lot of moose hunting, now that there’s enough for everyone – but not this time of year, though, when they’re getting so buggy from this heat.” The hunters return, triumphant, and are greeted and congratulated. Later, as they sit and eat sea lion around the old park sign, they discuss past hunts. An older man says, “It’s kind of scary these days, trying to get across rivers when the ice is so thin, even in the middle of winter.” “It’s hard to get around,” agrees another. “And I miss being able to go out on the ice to fish.” “That doesn’t worry me as much as those cruise ships. Seems like they don’t pay attention to small boats, and they make so much noise, and pollute the water. Sure doesn’t help the hunters.” “I think the oil rigs are the worst. They say they’re not spilling anything, but I’ve seen slicks on the water.” “Well, the government sure isn’t going to do anything about it.” “We’ll just have to do the best we can with what’s left.” They all fall silent and enjoy their meat. As the meal ends, they toss the old sign onto the fire. The last letters of “Bering Land Bridge National Preserve” turn black and disappear.

Explaining Scenarios: A Basic GBN Scenario Creation Process What are the implications of these scenarios for our strategic issue, and what actions should we take in light of them? What is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address? What critical forces will affect the future of our issue? How do we combine and synthesize these forces to create a small number of alternative stories? As new information unfolds, which scenarios seem most valid? Does this affect our decisions and actions? This diagram describes the 5 key steps required in any scenario planning process 37 Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group © 2010 Monitor Company Group

Categorizing Options to Help Set Strategy Robust: Pursue only those options that would work out well (or at least not hurt you too much) in any of the four scenarios OR Bet the Farm / Shaping: Make one clear bet that a certain future will happen — and then do everything you can to help make that scenario a reality OR Hedge Your Bets / Wait and See: Make several distinct bets of relatively equal size OR Core / Satellite: Place one major bet, with one or more small bets as a hedge against uncertainty, experiments, and real options Hedge Your Bets Core Robust Satellite Bet the Farm

Implications common to all scenarios 39 Lake Kuzitrin Photo by NPS - Jennifer Thelen BELA Photo by NPS

Management actions common to all scenarios 40 Photo by NPS Testing and recording an archeological feature atop a beach ridge UW/NPS

Explaining Scenarios: A Basic GBN Scenario Creation Process What are the implications of these scenarios for our strategic issue, and what actions should we take in light of them? What is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address? What critical forces will affect the future of our issue? How do we combine and synthesize these forces to create a small number of alternative stories? As new information unfolds, which scenarios seem most valid? Does this affect our decisions and actions? This diagram describes the 5 key steps required in any scenario planning process 41 Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group © 2010 Monitor Company Group