U. S. Coast Guard International Ice Patrol Commander Scott Rogerson International Ice Charting Working Group Frascati, Italy 22 October 2007 Historical Perspective to Recent (Light) Iceberg Seasons in the North Atlantic Ocean

Outline Brief Overview of IIP (history/mission) Summary of 2002 & 2003 Iceberg Seasons Summary of Iceberg Seasons Summary of 2007 Iceberg Season Historical Perspective to Seasons Conclusions

R.M.S. Titanic (1912)

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TITANIC IIP’s Core Purpose: Promote safe navigation in the northwest Atlantic Ocean when the danger of iceberg collision exists.

IIP Mission Monitor the iceberg danger near the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and provide the limits of all known ice to the maritime community. IIP Vision Eliminate the risk of iceberg collision.

Key IIP Metric = Icebergs South of 48N Where icebergs pose greatest threat to most ships Also How many days are icebergs a threat south of 48N in a given year? (When did IIP begin and stop issuing products?) Note Few (or no) icebergs south of 48N does not mean there are no icebergs anywhere!

How does IIP monitor the iceberg danger near the Grand Banks of Newfoundland?

We conduct aerial reconnaissance with USCG aircraft (out of St. John’s, Newfoundland) HC-130H

How does IIP provide the limits of all known ice to the maritime community?

We use a Berg Analysis & Prediction System (BAPS)…and issue Daily Products

Summary of 2002 & 2003 Iceberg Seasons 2002 –Icebergs South of 48N: 877 –Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 147 (19 Feb – 15 Jul) 2003 –Icebergs South of 48N: 927 –Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 116 (24 Mar – 17 Jul)

Summary of Iceberg Seasons 2004 –Icebergs South of 48N: 262 –Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 92 (27 Apr – 27 Jul) 2005 –Icebergs South of 48N: 11 –Days IIP Issued Daily Products: –Icebergs South of 48N: 0 –Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 0

Speaking of 2004… Just one iceberg can ruin your day!

Summary of 2007 Iceberg Season 2007 –Icebergs South of 48N: 324 –Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 117 (9 Apr – 3 Aug) Summary of 2002 to 2007 Iceberg Seasons Icebergs South of 48N Days IIP Issued Daily Products First Product Issued19-Feb24-Mar27-AprNA 9-Apr Last Product Issued15-Jul17-Jul27-JulNA 3-Aug

Historical Perspective ( ) How many icebergs have crossed 48N (annually) since 1950?

Icebergs South of 48N ( ) Note: 50% of seasons had <250 icebergs cross 48N Several periods with numerous light seasons 58-year average = 511

Conclusions Large interannual variability dominates the signal (for icebergs crossing 48N). Numerous light iceberg seasons in a row (or within a short period) is not uncommon. Icebergs remain a threat in the vicinity of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland (and North).

Questions?

Icebergs South of 48N ( ) Surface ReconnaissanceAerial Reconnaissance Average = 472