The Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools Opportunity FOR RIGOR Gap A Data Driven Discussion October 1, 2012

 Executive Summary  AP Potential Background  Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools Advanced Placement Overview  Participation and Performance Reports  College Board Support Table of Contents [Enter Presentation Title in Header and Footer] 2

Executive Summary There are 3964 possible additional seats available for students in Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools with high potential to be successful in AP (70% likelihood of getting a 3, 4, or 5) but who are not in AP today. This is called the Opportunity for Rigor Gap 3 Course Gap Course not offered PSAT administered Minimum of 15 students with 70% three-exam constrained AP Potential Section Gap Course offered PSAT administered School enrollment data available Minimum of 25 students with 70% three-exam constrained AP Potential APP students minus estimated enrollment >= 10 APP students minus estimated capacity >= 10 Seat Gap Course offered PSAT administered Exam data submitted to College Board Minimum of 25 students with 70% three-exam constrained AP Potential Estimated capacity minus estimated enrollment >=10 Criteria 2238 Seats 481 Seats1245 Seats CMS

Executive Summary These courses can satisfy North Carolina graduation requirements and increase college readiness. Offer AP Human Geography, World History, Calculus AB, Statistics and Environmental Science in schools where the courses are not currently offered With teachers already trained and appropriately resourced, adding new sections is a cost effective strategy for increasing AP participation. Expand the number of sections of AP Music Theory, European History and Art History where the courses are offered in the district Some current AP classes may have low enrollment numbers. Use best practice recruiting methods to attract and retain students. Ensure that current classes are optimized for enrollment at all district high schools 4 There are many students in Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools with the potential to be successful in AP coursework who do not have access to AP today. These students could fill the 3964 possible seats identified through the AP Potential models. Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools can make progress towards the district’s mission to “…maximize academic achievement by every student …” and increase AP participation and AP performance at the same time by increasing enrollment of these high potential students in rigorous coursework. Further, AP professional development supports one of the two key goals of the district’s Strategic Plan 2014, that of improving teaching. There are three high-impact strategies that the Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools can implement to close this gap:

How do we measure the Opportunity for Rigor Gap? How can you find these students at your schools? [Enter Presentation Title in Header and Footer]

AP Potential is a metric that indicates students’ potential to score a 3 or higher on specific AP exams based on their PSAT/NMSQT (PN) scores 6 AP Potential is based on proven research (internal and external) that analyzed the performance of more than a million students and found strong correlations between PN score and AP Exam results. Studies conducted in 1998, 2006, 2007, and Expectancy Tables provide probabilities of scoring 3 or better based on PSAT performance levels. AP Potential rosters can be customized to expand your AP population

There are strong correlations between the AP Exam and specific PN sections 7 ExamCorrelationPN Section(s) Art History.575V+W Biology656V+M Calculus AB.530M Calculus BC.484M Chemistry.599M Computer Sci A.511M English Lang.732V+W English Lit.727V+W Environmental Sci.632V+M European History.586V+M+W GoPo: Comparative.523V+M GoPo: United States.622V+M+W Human Geography.606V+M ExamCorrelationPN Section(s) Latin.471W Macroeconomics.566V+M Microeconomics.549V+M Music Theory.477M Physics B.540M Physics C: E&M.455M Physics C: Mechanics.572M Psychology.624V+M+W Spanish Literature.411W Statistics.617V+M US History.603V+M+W World History.584V+M PN Sections: V=Verbal, M=Math, and W=Writing Source: Updating AP Potential™ Expectancy Tables Involving PSAT/NMSQT® Writing – Ewing, Camara, Millsap, and Milewski Note: The R-squared ranges between 17% and 54%

PSAT/NMSQT is more strongly correlated with AP success than other measures used by school districts in enrollment policies  PSAT (.56 correlation) stronger correlation than cumulative GPA (.28): “When considering all of the 29 AP Examinations that exhibited a moderate to strong correlation with PSAT/NMSQT scores, the average correlation between AP Examination grades and HSGPA (cumulative high school GPA) had a magnitude of.28. By contrast, the average correlation between the same AP Examinations and the PSAT/NMSQT scores used for computing the expectancy tables was much higher at.56.” 1  PSAT (.56 correlation) stronger correlation than relevant course grades (.25): The correlations between AP Examination grades and relevant course grades ranged from.08 (i.e., Studio Art: 2-D Design and Studio Art: Drawing) to.36 (i.e., Statistics). When considering all of the 29 AP Examinations that exhibited a moderate to strong correlation with PSAT/NMSQT scores, the average correlation between AP Examination grades and relevant course grades was.25. This average was again well below the average correlation between AP Examination grades and the PSAT/NMSQT scores used to compute the expectancy tables The Relationship Between PSAT/NMSQT® Scores and AP® Examination Grades: A Follow-Up Study, Maureen Ewing, Wayne J. Camara, and Roger E. Millsap, 2006, pg. 10

However, few districts use AP Potential to recommend a students for AP - leaving many high-potential students out of rigorous courses (Opportunity for Rigor Gap) 9 What factors do you use in recommending a student to enroll in an AP course? Select all that apply Source: 2012 AP Participation Survey: 13,262 respondents

10 Note: “AP Potential” is defined here as a 70% or greater likelihood of scoring a 3 or higher on an AP Exam. These data are based on projections from the 2 million students PSAT/NMSQT test takers in the class of 2010 Asian 42% 58% White 62% 38% Hispanic/Latino 70% 30% Black/African American 80% 20% Took Recommended AP Did Not Take Recommended AP 10 Among students with high AP potential, Latino and African American students are the least likely to gain access to AP

You can easily identify students with high potential of being successful in AP with PSAT and AP Potential 11 Helps schools grow their AP programs by identifying students who have the potential to succeed in rigorous AP courses. Online tool that generates rosters of students likely to score 3 or better on a given AP Exam Free for all schools that administer the PSAT/NMSQT (PN) Designed to expand access to AP and ensure that no student with the potential to succeed in overlooked School can customize the list and define the pool of students based on likelihood level (e.g. students are 50% likely to score a 3/4/5 vs. 70% likely) The Tool provides a list of students that fit this criteria and are strong candidates for AP We can provide specialized training to your District on this tool

What is the Opportunity for Rigor Gap in Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools? [Enter Presentation Title in Header and Footer]

AP Course Offerings and AP Potential 13 Science 6 Courses Biology Chemistry Physics B Physics C – Mechanics Physics C – Electricity & Magnetism Environmental Science Mathematics 3 Courses Calculus AB Calculus BC Statistics English 2 Courses English Language and Composition English Literature and Composition Social Studies: 9 Courses European History US History World History Human Geography Comparative Government & Politics US Government & Politics Psychology Microeconomics Macroeconomics Electives: 5 Courses Art History Computer Science A Latin Music Theory Spanish Literature AP Potential is predictive in 25 AP Course Offerings

AP Course Offerings – an Overview for Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools 14 Each cell in the next table represents the number of AP courses offered in each school in a specific content area. Example: an entry of 4 in the science column for a specific high school indicates that the school offers 4 out of the 6 possible AP science courses. English: 2 CoursesMathematics: 3 Courses English Language and CompositionCalculus AB Calculus BC English Literature and CompositionStatistics Social Studies: 9 CoursesScience: 6 Courses European HistoryBiology US HistoryChemistry World HistoryPhysics B Human GeographyPhysics C –Mechanics Comparative Government & PoliticsPhysics C – Electricity & Magnetism US Government & PoliticsEnvironmental Science Psychology MicroeconomicsElectives: 5 Courses MacroeconomicsArt History Computer Science A Latin Music Theory Spanish Literature

AP Course Offerings An Overview for Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools 15

Charlotte Mecklenberg High Schools AP Course Offerings by High School 16

Opportunity for Rigor model gaps – an Overview for Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools 17

Opportunity for Rigor model gaps – Course Gap Specifics 18

Opportunity for Rigor model gaps – Section Gap Specifics 19

Opportunity for Rigor model gaps – Seat Gap Specifics 20

Schools offer a variety of Rigorous Coursework Opportunities to Students Research comparing AP to dual enrollment shows that students who take AP: Earn more credit hours Have higher college GPA’s Have higher graduation rates 21 Murphy, D., & Dodd, B. (2009), Keng, L., & Dodd, B. (2008), Hargrove, L., Godin, D., & Dodd, B. (2008)

Rigorous Coursework – What to Consider The decision about AP and Dual Enrollment should consider more than where a student will attend college Student Interest/Proposed Major Motivation Career Interest Perseverance Time to College Graduation 22

How can AP help you close the Opportunity for Rigor Gap? 1. Training for counseling staff on using data to identify students 2. Start Up Kit for school leaders - Process and Timelines for successfully adding new AP courses to course catalog 3. Recruitment Toolkit for your teachers and school leaders - best practice strategies for increasing enrollment in AP Courses 4. Cost-effective professional development for teachers that will start new AP courses, access to teacher community and resources to get started 5. Outreach to students/parents/community based organizations about value of AP and asking them to get engaged in college readiness 6. Outreach to counselors 23

How do we measure the Opportunity for Rigor Gap? Appendix [Enter Presentation Title in Header and Footer]

 Total number of schools 159  Elementary schools 88  Middle schools 39  High schools 28  Alternative schools 4  Mobile/modular classrooms 612  Projected number of students enrolled (excludes Pre-K) 137,740  Pre-kindergarten 3,100  Kindergarten-grade 5 68,799  Grades ,288  Grades ,653  Demographic Information:  American Indian/multiracial 3%  Asian 5%  African-American 42%  Hispanic 17.5%  White 32.5%  Advanced Courses ( )  Students taking AP exams 9,526  Total number of AP exams taken by students 9,523  IB diplomas conferred 64  Total IB candidates 134 Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools

North Carolina State HS Graduation Requirements