© T. M. Whitmore TODAY “The Green Revolution” continued

© T. M. Whitmore LAST TIME The Fertilizer Revolution  Late 18th thru early 20th century  Coincident with the development of chemistry generally “The Green Revolution”

© T. M. Whitmore How does it work? The “green revolution” consists of several things — “the package”  1) Dwarf, high yielding hybrid seeds (HYV)  2) Irrigation  3) Fertilizer  4) Herbicides and pesticides  5) Often uses agricultural machinery Lacking the “package”: yields/ha are often NO better than traditional Infrastructure: (roads, markets, banking and finance, rural credit, agricultural extension, research capacity, national integration and policy making) necessary to develop and sustain the technological package

© T. M. Whitmore Changes in an Punjab (India) village 1960s-1970s Changes are not just increases in output – the proportion of crops sown changes  Wheat:  yields up 2x as HYV monocrop  increased proportion of village land  Rice  yields increase 1970s as HYV monocrop  none planted in 1960s  Maize  yields up as HYV monocrop  increased proportion of village

© T. M. Whitmore Changes in crops (continued) Changes are not just increases in output – the proportion of crops sown changes  Cotton  little change in yield  decreased proportion of village  Cane sugar  little change in yield  decreased proportion of village  Bersim (a form of clover)  legume/fodder crop for rotations  little change in yield  decreased proportion of village (stubble of maize/wheat used as fodder)

© T. M. Whitmore Changes in technology Technology  Irrigation: increased for winter cropping; better tube wells and mechanical pumps; worth it with higher yields  Soil amendments: increased chemical inputs for rice, wheat, maize; decreased intercropping and rotation  Tools of cultivation: hand tools and oxen plows still; add some rental tractors  Transport: ox carts & bicycles only before; better ox carts, motorbikes, some trucks

© T. M. Whitmore Changes in technology (continued) Use and type of animals  Decrease in cattle (traction)  Increase in buffalo (traction AND milk for local use and sale)

© J. Jangoux

© M. Meade

© T. M. Whitmore Social Changes Human populations  Total numbers grew  Proportions in upper classes lower  moved out  or now manage larger farms; teach; etc.  Proportions in landless lower classes increased  now wage labor Tenure  number of holdings decreased - size of some increased

© M. Meade

© T. M. Whitmore Social Changes (continued) Public works  Improved roads  Improved temple  Local secondary school built Interconnectivity/dependence  Rather self sufficient before  Now reliant on  Capital (loans)  Purchased inputs  Petroleum  Markets NOT clear that even though total output increased - wellbeing did for everyone

© M. Meade

© T. M. Whitmore Problems & Successes – critics and apologists Successes  Improved productivity 3-6 times as much per hectare Improved  Far lower prices for main grain crops world wide  Lower rates of extensification world wide  Vastly increased food productionincreased food production  Lower proportions of hunger and lower absolute numbersproportions of hunger

Yield (metric tons/hectare) Wheat Yield Rice Yield Maize Yield Yields Are Up, But Growth is Slowing World Resources Institute

© T. M. Whitmore Problems & Successes continued Problems with the technology itself  Chemical pollution  runoff can enter water tables and poison local water sources  individual farmers often have very little knowledge of risks using pesticides especially — thus compromising their health

© T. M. Whitmore Problems with the technology itself  Soil damage  chemicals, especial herbicides and other organic killers, can also kill micro organisms within the soils  very “tight” spacing of crops in the field lead to large demands on the soils for nutrients  tight spacing and mechanization can lead to soil compaction  Erosion & salinization Problems & Successes continued

© T. M. Whitmore Problems & Successes continued Uneven geographic and crop-specific impactsgeographic  Little improvement in pulses and roots  Little improvement in crops that are mostly dry land (barley, millets, and sorghums  Late getting to Africa and Mid East  Most growth 1960s-70s in Africa due to extensification  Most growth in output 1980s - due to increased inputs not HYVs per se  Most benefits to Asia and LA

Progress in Feeding the World Has Varied Widely by Region

© T. M. Whitmore Problems & Successes continued Impacts on large and small holders  Difficult for poor to afford the “package”  Benefits of improved output mostly to the already relatively better off Other criticisms  Genetic loss  Petroleum dependence (fertilizer)fertilizer  Dependence on irrigationirrigation  Does not “solve” the food problemfood

Food Supply Increasingly Relies on Irrigation

More fertilizer: More food, but more pollution