The effect of doubled CO 2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system Andrew Turner, P.M. Inness & J.M. Slingo IUGG meeting: JMS011 Monsoon.

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Presentation transcript:

The effect of doubled CO 2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system Andrew Turner, P.M. Inness & J.M. Slingo IUGG meeting: JMS011 Monsoon Systems

Introduction Indian summer monsoon is vital to the lives of more than 2 billion people across South Asia through agricultural and, increasingly, industrial users of water. How characteristics of the mean monsoon and its variation on different timescales may change in the future is a key goal of climate research. Changing predictability of the monsoon through its teleconnection to ENSO must also be addressed.

Outline Introduction Model framework Climate change and the mean monsoon Interannual variability How do systematic model biases affect the result? The monsoon-ENSO teleconnection

Model set-up Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3 run at high vertical resolution (L30) which better represents intraseasonal tropical convection 1 and has an improved atmospheric response to El Niño 2. 1 P.M. Inness, J.M. Slingo, S. Woolnough, R. Neale, V. Pope (2001). Clim. Dyn. 17: H. Spencer, J.M. Slingo (2003). J. Climate 16: Control (1xCO 2 ) and future climate (2xCO 2 ) integrations used to test the impact of increased GHG forcing. Further integration of each climate scenario to test the role of systematic model biases.

2xCO 2 response of HadCM3 Summer climate of HadCM3 2xCO 2 Response to 2xCO 2

The monsoon in IPCC AR4 models Annamalai et al. (2007): Of the six AR4 models which reasonably simulate the monsoon precipitation climatology of the 20 th century, all show general increases in seasonal rainfall over India in the 1pctto2x runs (including HadCM3 L19). H. Annamalai, K. Hamilton, K. R. Sperber (2007). J. Climate 20:

Interannual variability Interannual variability is projected to increase at 2xCO 2 (+24% using Webster-Yang dynamical index*). seasonal rainfall PDF Increased likelihood of very wet seasons. DMI (JJAS) * P.J. Webster & S. Yang (1992). QJRMS 118: xCO 2 2xCO 2

Interannual variability Greater difference between extreme monsoon seasons at 2xCO 2. 1xCO 2 2xCO 2 strong-weak monsoon precip and 850hPa wind

Model set-up Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3 run at higher vertical resolution (L30), which better represents intraseasonal tropical convection 1 and has an improved atmospheric response to El Niño 2. 1 P.M. Inness, J.M. Slingo, S. Woolnough, R. Neale, V. Pope (2001). Clim. Dyn. 17: H. Spencer, J.M. Slingo (2003). J. Climate 16: Control (1xCO 2 ) and future climate (2xCO 2 ) integrations used to test the impact of increased GHG forcing. Further integration of each climate scenario to test the role of systematic model biases.

Systematic biases in HadCM3 Summer climate of HadCM3 1xCO 2 HadCM3 minus observations

Monsoon-ENSO teleconnection: lag-correlations The monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is weak and mis-timed in HadCM3. DMI (JJAS) vs. Niño-3

Flux adjustments at 1xCO 2 Flux adjustments are calculated by relaxing Indo- Pacific SSTs back toward climatology in a control integration. The heat fluxes required for the relaxation are saved and meaned to form an annual cycle. Annual cycle applied to the equatorial band of a new integration*. Annual Mean Amplitude of annual cycle * After: P.M. Inness, J.M. Slingo, E. Guilyardi, J. Cole (2003). J. Climate 16:

Systematic biases in HadCM3 & their reduction in HadCM3FA Maritime Continent cooled; cold tongue warmed Coupled response: reduced trade wind errors and monsoon jet Reduced convection over Maritime Continent & other precip errors opposed HadCM3 minus observations HadCM3FA minus HadCM3 Results from A.G. Turner, P.M. Inness, J. M. Slingo (2005) QJRMS 131:

Flux adjustments at 2xCO 2 Assume systematic biases will still be present in the future climate. Assume that the adjustments necessary to correct these biases will be the same. Same annual cycle of flux adjustments used at 2xCO 2 (in common with previous studies where adjustments were necessary to combat drift, eg in HadCM2*). * M. Collins (2000). J. Climate 13:

2xCO 2 response of HadCM3 Summer climate of HadCM3 2xCO 2 Response of HadCM3 2xCO 2

2xCO 2 response of HadCM3FA Summer climate of HadCM3FA 2xCO 2 Response of HadCM3FA to 2xCO 2

Monsoon precipitation response Systematic bias seems to mask full impact of changing climate Taken from A.G. Turner, P.M. Inness, J.M. Slingo (2007). QJRMS, in press.

Monsoon-ENSO teleconnection: lag-correlations Flux adjustments have dramatic impact on the teleconnection, particularly when measured by Indian rainfall. The impact of increased GHG forcing is less clear but the teleconnection is generally robust. DMIIndian rainfall

Monsoon-ENSO teleconnection: moving correlations Variations of correlation strength in models are of similar amplitude to those seen in observations despite fixed CO 2 forcing. See also AR4 models in Annamalai et al. (2007). HadISST vs. All-India gauge data rainfall DMI

Summary Projections of the future climate show enhanced mean monsoon consistent with other modelling studies. Interannual modes of variation are more intense at 2xCO 2, potentially leading to greater impacts of the monsoon on society. Systematic model biases may be masking the true impact of increased GHG forcing. The monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, useful for seasonal prediction, remains robust. Indeed model error has more impact than climate change. Large amplitude variations occur in the modelled monsoon-ENSO teleconnection despite fixed CO 2 forcing.

Thank you!