Agriculture and Livestock Sector Case study on estimation of damage and losses

Contents 1.Description of drought disaster 2.Baseline and other information 3.Estimations to be made

Annual Rainfall at Gulu, 1960 to 2010 Average: 1,554 mm 10/7/2011RJ3

Departure from Average Monthly Rainfall at Gulu, 2010 to /7/2011RJ4 Rainfall Surplus Rainfall Deficit DeficitDeficit

Millet Water Demand versus Effective Rainfall Water Deficit 10/7/2011RJ5

Effects of drought on agriculture crops Due to the drought seasonal crop growth was curtailedDue to the drought seasonal crop growth was curtailed The effects of the drought included the following:The effects of the drought included the following: –Harvested area for each crop was lower than planted area –Average unit yields for each crop were lower than initially foreseen –Overall quantity of production was lower than forecasted

Effects of drought on livestock Some domestic animals died due to lack of water and pastureSome domestic animals died due to lack of water and pasture A significant number of animals were forced to travel long distances to obtain water and pasture. As a result:A significant number of animals were forced to travel long distances to obtain water and pasture. As a result: Some animals became sickSome animals became sick Others required unforeseen expenditures to provide veterinarian attention, water and feedOthers required unforeseen expenditures to provide veterinarian attention, water and feed Production of meat, milk and cheese declined correspondinglyProduction of meat, milk and cheese declined correspondingly

Planted and harvested area for food and cash crops

Forecasted and obtained crop yields

Crop prices paid to producers

Baseline for livestock Data on animal stock # of animals under production Animal productivity

Drought effects on livestock Effects on productivity of animals # of dead and sick animals

Unit prices and associated costs Price paid per animal Prices of by-products Cost of veterinarian assistance

Estimations to be made 1.Value of dead animals (damage) 2.Production losses of meat and milk due to: Death of animalsDeath of animals Illness of animalsIllness of animals 3.Higher costs incurred –Veterinarian attention –Cost of water and feed