3. Post-9/11 US Strategy How much has changed? How much has stayed the same?

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Presentation transcript:

3. Post-9/11 US Strategy How much has changed? How much has stayed the same?

Then Everything Changed Or Did It?

Pentagon

Traditional Threats Nation-state rivalries Hegemon vs. Rising Challenger VS.

New Threats Emerge 1.Non-state Actors 2.Ideology 3.Disruption  Global Insurgency  Loosely connected networks  From AQAM to transnational organized crime

AQAM Power Projection

Why Non-State Actors have Power Globalization Ease of travel Ease of global finance Communications revolution States –Ability to communicate lose their globally monopoly Information revolution on –Ability to share large influence amounts of information with and anyone, anywhere, anytime violence –Global spread of technology

GW Bush National Security Strategy Maintain Core Strategy 1.Nuclear Deterrence and missile defense 2.Forward Presence 3.Peacetime Military Strength 4.Own the sea 5.NATO and other alliances 6.Free Trade and Commerce 7.Spread Democracy**

Innovations? 1.Deter peer competitors 2.Deal with regional powers seeking WMD 3.Fight Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) or “The Long War” 4. Spread Democracy

1. Deter Peer Competitors

Seapower Forward Presence Power Projection “ ” Capability

2. Deal with regional powers seeking WMD “Axis of Evil” Isolation sanctions Preemption Regime change

3. Fight Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) or “The Long War”

4. Spread Democracy Neoconservatism Stability Operations COIN US Army FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency, 2006 US State Department Counterinsurgency Manual

US Domiance: Global Military Spending SIPRI data

Building World Order On global scale Regionally: Regime Change and Democracy Building Afghanistan Iraq Street by street Limits to this strategy?

Clear Limits

Obama Strategy Maintain Core Strategy 1.Nuclear Deterrence and missile defense 2.Forward Presence 3.Peacetime Military Strength 4.Own the sea 5.NATO and other alliances 6.Free Trade and Commerce 7.Spread Democracy**

Innovations? 1. Recognition of new international order –Interdependence –Globalization –Rise of new powers

2. US still wants to shape international order Power projection (US and UK Carriers)

Preparing for A2AD Strategies Anti-Access/Area-Denial strategies China’s DF-21D

3. Focus on Non-state Actors AQAM Osama bin-Laden May 2011 AQAP Anwar al-Awlaki September 2011

OUT Iraq Afghanistan IN (for training, joint exercises, or longer term deployments) –Uganda –Australia –Djibouti –Niger –Indonesia…

Drone Strikes (Yemen )

4. Defend Global Commons

5. Pivot to Asia Defense GuidanceDefense Guidance 2012:2012 –Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership Priorities for 21st Century Defense Clinton at East-West Center –“America's Engagement in the Asia-Pacific” texttext

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