Hurricanes Last Season and Next Jerry D. Jarrell Director National Hurricane Center Jerry D. Jarrell Director National Hurricane Center

Outline Brief Review of 1998 Season Major issues for Season Brief Review of 1998 Season Major issues for Season

1998 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

SEASON HIGHLIGHTS 14 TROPICAL STORMS OF WHICH 10 BECAME HURRICANES 3 MAJOR HURRICANES (CAT. 3, CAT. 4, & CAT. 5) 10 U.S. LANDFALLS (4 BY GEORGES) $ 7.3 BILLION U.S. DAMAGE 23 DEATHS IN THE U.S TOTAL DEATHS (9,000+ IN MITCH) 14 TROPICAL STORMS OF WHICH 10 BECAME HURRICANES 3 MAJOR HURRICANES (CAT. 3, CAT. 4, & CAT. 5) 10 U.S. LANDFALLS (4 BY GEORGES) $ 7.3 BILLION U.S. DAMAGE 23 DEATHS IN THE U.S TOTAL DEATHS (9,000+ IN MITCH)

SEASON HIGHLIGHTS MITCH WAS THE FOURTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN, AND THE STRONGEST EVER OBSERVED IN OCTOBER ON 25 SEP. FOUR HURRICANES WERE IN PROGRESS AT ONCE-- THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1893 MITCH WAS THE FOURTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN, AND THE STRONGEST EVER OBSERVED IN OCTOBER ON 25 SEP. FOUR HURRICANES WERE IN PROGRESS AT ONCE-- THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1893

SEASON HIGHLIGHTS IN A REMARKABLE SPAN OF 35 DAYS…FROM 8/19 TO 9/23…TEN NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED THE FOUR-YEAR PERIOD OF FEATURED A RECORD NUMBER OF HURRICANES (33) IN A REMARKABLE SPAN OF 35 DAYS…FROM 8/19 TO 9/23…TEN NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED THE FOUR-YEAR PERIOD OF FEATURED A RECORD NUMBER OF HURRICANES (33)

Issues for 1999 (and beyond) Winds at Elevations Inland Flooding A US Catastrophe? 2 Scenarios Memory of History Winds at Elevations Inland Flooding A US Catastrophe? 2 Scenarios Memory of History Disaster Resistant Homes Human Impact Scale Warning Lead Times Climate & Season Forecasts Disaster Resistant Homes Human Impact Scale Warning Lead Times Climate & Season Forecasts

Winds are Stronger Just above the Surface Implications for High Rise Buildings High Terrain Implications for High Rise Buildings High Terrain

Is the new big Hurricane Killing Agent Inland Flooding? Can We Forget about Storm Surge?

Deaths Deadliest TCs Since Camille ‘69 US TC Deaths by Cause

Can the USA still have a Catastrophic Hurricane Event? Most likely Scenario(s)

U.S. Coastline Phase 1: Traffic jam Phase 2: Accident or other incident Phase 3: The Hurricane U.S. Coastline Phase 1: Traffic jam Phase 2: Accident or other incident Phase 3: The Hurricane Catastrophe Scenario 1.

Hurricane Betsy, 1965, US 1 in the Florida Keys

The Key West Problem Catastrophe Scenario 2. Phase 1. Adequacy of Escape Routes Questioned Phase 2. No Action to Fix Escape Routes Phase 3. Fear Diminishes Evacuation Phase 4. The Hurricane Storm Surge

People Confuse Memory and History We Act not on History, but on Our Perception of History

Saffir-Simpson Categories of Hurricane Strikes

Chatham County, Georgia, 20 Years into Last Century

Disaster Resistant Homes What is it? Information? Are We Moving in the Right Direction? What is it? Information? Are We Moving in the Right Direction?

Disaster Resistant Demonstration Home off I-95, Deerfield Beach, Florida Disaster Resistant Demonstration Home off I-95, Deerfield Beach, Florida

The Human Impact Model Saffir- Simpson Scale: A Success Story Saffir- Simpson Scale: A Success Story

Human Impact Model Meteorology Demographics Geology Preparedness Infrastructure Building Codes Zoning Communications etc. Casualties Displaced Homeless Destroyed/ Damaged: Buildings Bridges Hospitals

The Emergency Management Community needs Longer Lead Times for Preparation: We are Trying to Issue Hurricane Warnings Earlier

Hurricane Warnings

Is Climate Changing? What about 1999?

1999 Forecast: Hurricane Season 1 June to 30 November Be Prepared!