Human Dimensions of the Arctic System (HARC) Synthesis Workshop Implications for SEARCH 5 October 2007 Alexandria, Virginia

Workshop Purpose  Assess the current state of HD research within ARCSS  Share methods, data, and results  To make advances in data integration  Identify of commonalities, gaps, outliers, needs for moving towards formal synthesis and/or new synthesis efforts  Foster synthesis-focused communication, and co-ordination

Participants  HARC resides in ARCSS but many HARC- type projects and SEARCH-relevant human dimensions projects are funded through other venues at NSF (and elsewhere…. i.e., NOAA)  PIs from ARCSS, AON, BEST, IPY Observing and Understanding initiatives  Other ARCSS investigators (past and present)  ARCSS committee and HARC SSC members

Disciplinary Expertise  Applied Anthropology  Biochemistry  Biological Oceanography  Civil Engineering  Computer Simulation Modeling  Cyberinfrastructure  Economics  Enthnology  Environmental Archaeology  Environmental Biology  Environmental Engineering  Environmental Systems Analysis  Geochemistry  Geography & Regional Development  Geophysics  Historical Climatology  Wildlife Management  Resource Management Science  Sociology  Natural Resources & Regional Planning  Paleoecology  Physical Geography  Terrestrial Ecology

Disciplinary Engagement

Projects (NSF only)  Humans and Hydrology at High Latitudes (SASS I) Richard Lammers  Heterogeneity and Resilience of Human-Rangifer Systems: A Circumpolar Social-Ecological Synthesis (SASS I) Gary Kofinas  Synthesis of Sea Ice, Climate, and Human Systems in the Arctic and Subarctic (SYNICE, SASS II)Astrid Ogilvie  Environmental Variability, Bowhead Whale Distributions, and Iñupiat Subsistence Whaling: Whaling Linkages and Resilience of an Alaskan Coastal System (SNACS) Craig Nicolson  Nelson Island Natural and Cultural Knowledge Project (BEST) Ann Riordan  ELOKA (IPY/AON) Henry Huntington  Is the Arctic Human System Moving to a New State (IPY/AON Jack Kruse/Larry Hamilton)  Bering Sea Sub-Network (IPY/AON) Victoria Gofman  Employment and Sustainability in a Time of Transition : Human Capital Development, Firm strategy, and Community in the Arctic (IPY/HPR) Hal Salzman  Long Term Human Ecodynamics in the Norse North Atlantic: Cases of Sustainability, Survival, and Collapse (IPY/HPR)Tom McGovern

SEARCH-Relevant Observational Data  Data Commonalities and Indexed Time Series –Parallel time series across multiple data sets from present day water use to historic faming –Demographics, wage labour, land use including high latitude agriculture, sea ice, some subsistence –Local and regional scale  Spatial and Temporal Coverage - Large data gaps  Historic sea ice data and sea ice services for North Atlantic  Historic land use data for Iceland and Greenland  Recent water use for Alaska (key water indicators)  Recent human/marine system interactions including sea ice and bowheads (north slope AK, Labrador, Iceland only)  Some pan-Arctic but very limited in scope (i.e. human/rangifer systems)  Multi-decadal to century-scale in some regions  Annual and daily resolution in others  In general, most time series very short or even snapshot quality

Observational Needs  Broader Human/Biophysical Domain Coverage –Observations of ecosystem/human systems (outside the range of those currently collected and including physical/oceanographic, paleoecology) –Observations relevant to understanding, mitigating and responding to arctic change, including changing pathways, regional scale predictability, economic development –Observations of features most sensitivity to natural variability, including features of the human domain (i.e., seasonally dependent activities, food production and access, energy production and access, political in/stability etc.) For Example  Oil infrastructure is built on the premise of the existing ice structure  Increasing unpredictability in variability in access to water for ice road construction  Impacts and feedbacks of alternative forms of access at regional and global scales  Specialist vs. generalist systems and ability to respond to change in oil availability whether as a function of access to oil or shift in price etc.

Understanding Objectives  Understanding human interactions with and feedbacks to upper trophic levels and a wide range of ecosystem services  Understanding responses and feedbacks to changes in seasonality (bio/physical domain )  Predicting impacts and feedbacks from changing access to ecosystem services (competition, conflict etc.)  Predicting impacts and feedbacks of arctic and global development activities – On the natural system (i.e. increased pollution, change in human footprint on marine and terrestrial systems ) – On human system (i.e. rural/urban communication networks, food systems including high latitude agriculture and aquaculture developments, changing disease patterns, changing chemical transport pathways, shifting parasite loads etc.)

Understanding Needs  Increased data integration and analysis of diverse data sets – Common observational data collections protocols – Implementation of advanced multivariate statistical approaches to data analysis – Downscale modeling of feedbacks and interactions – Ability to characterizing potential state changes (downscale) – Ability to predict/understand potential alternative states across all domains (downscale) – Ability to predict future conjunctions and trajectories of change in the context of global system – Global teleconnections across domains

Responding to Change  Major Challenges – Identifying environmental signals in human behaviour – Determining what kind of an environmental signal will begin to impact decision making at all levels (from individual to global government) – Developing and communicating policy relevant scientific information – Developing best practices for communication of model outputs (from GCM to downscale) and options for mitigation and adaptation to stakeholders at all levels – Effecting behaviour change – mitigation and adaptation