In-depth Analysis of Census Data on Employment Country Course on Analysis and Dissemination of Population and Housing Census Data with Gender Concern October 2011, Jakarta, Indonesia

Economically Active Population or Labour Force Labour Force or the Economically Active population is defined as that part of the population that supplies and willing to supply its labour for the production of economic goods and services during the time reference period chosen for investigation. The labour force differs from the concept of working age population. Working age population is the number of persons in the population in a specified age group eg years or 15 to 59 years.

Example Population (20.4m) Male Female (44%) (56%) Unemployed (5.4%) Employed (94.6%) Labour Force (49.5%) Not in Labor Force (50.5%) 37% Full time students 38% Engaged in household work 16% Retired and old age 5% Disabled 4% Other Male Female (62.2%) (37.7%) 3% Employer 57% Employee 30% Own account worker 10% Unpaid family worker Labour Force Participation Rate Male(67.8%); Female (33.2)

Sources of Employment/Labour Force Data 1.Census of Population 2.Labour Force Surveys 3.Socio-economic Surveys Concepts used in Collecting Data 1.Gainful worker approach 2.Labour force approach 3.Labour utilization approach

1.Gainful Worker Approach It is based on the idea that each person has more or less a stable functional role either as a breadwinner or as house wife or student etc. The main purpose of this concept was to enumerate the occupation of the person. Thus persons seeking work for the first time were left out of the labour force. Unemployment and underemployment were of secondary consideration. No reference period for data collection. 2.Labour Force Approach The labour force approach was developed to remedy the deficiencies of the gainful worker approach in the USA in 1930s. It is an economic concept to capture the labour supply for economic goods and services. It includes both the employed and the unemployed. It specifies a minimum age and a definite time reference period.

Labour Utilization Approach Due to the large number of underemployed persons in the labour force in developing countries, this approach has been developed to measure the extent of underemployment. It uses the same approach as in labour force in terms of minimum age limits and the reference period but the classification of categories differ. 1. Adequately utilized 2. Inadequately Utilized (a) unemployed (b) inadequately utilized by hours of work (c) inadequately utilized by level of income (d) inadequately utilized by mismatch between education and occupation Persons falling to categories (b), (c) and (d) are the underemployed. They are included under employed in the labour force approach.

Limitations of Data (a)Variation in length of time reference period The size of the labour force could vary depending on the length of the reference period as marginal members of the workforce could be included if the reference period is too long. (b)Variations in the definitions used Variations in the definition of persons by employment status particularly the unpaid family workers. (c) Variations in age group covered by economic activity The minimum age limit on economic activity is often set to conform to the legal minimum age for paid employment and compulsory school attendance.

(d) Changes in concepts and other limitations - Different concepts used in measurement - Errors in reporting occupation and age - Problems of measuring primary and secondary occupations - Variations in the formulation of the questionnaire - Selection of the dates for enumeration - Problem of enumerating seasonal workers

Labour Supply 1. Births (the rate largely determines the supply at entry ages) 2. Deaths (before entry to the labour force and in working ages) 3. Migration (within working ages) Labour Demand Growth of Output Growth of Productivity Other (a) Information and knowledge of job opportunities (b) Attitudes and preferences (c) Educational attainment and skills (d) Compatibility between child bearing and child caring roles

Labour Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex, In Sri Lanka-1971 and 2001

Assumptions Regarding Future Population and Labour Force Participation Rates by Age Groups and Sex 1.The future male and female population by age and sex can be obtained from Population Projections if available and the researcher is satisfied with the assumptions made with regard to fertility, mortality and migration. 2. Assumptions regarding age-sex labour force participation rates. (a) Male - Young ages (10-14, 15-19, 20-24) - Middle ages ( 25-55) - Older ages (55-65+)

(b) Females - Young ages (10-14, 15-19) - Child bearing ages (20-44) - Older ages (45-65+) In the case of females participation is largely influenced by marital status, educational attainment, attitudes and job preferences. In order to determine the future rates of labour force participation, it is necessary to examine the past trends of the population under study as well as the rates of other populations which have a similar economic structures.

Example of Labour Force Projection

Measures of Labour Force and Employment Labour Force Participation Rate LPR = No. of Employed + No. of Unemployed x 100 Population Employment Rate ER = No. of employed x 100 Labour Force Unemployment Rate UR = No. of unemployed x 100 Labour Force (These rates can be measured for Gender)

Employment by Demographic and SES factors Why explore employment data? Employment by sex by age by marital status by urban/rural by other ses variables by occupation By industry

Entries, Withdrawals and Net additions of Male Labour Force during Entries to the Labour Force : ( )= 757 Withdrawals from Labour Force : ( )= Net Additions to the Labour Force: 757 – 515 = 242 Average annual net additions = 242 / 5 = 48

Major Industrial Categories: Agriculture 1. Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry 2. Fishing Industry 1. Mining and Quarrying 2. Manufacturing 3. Electricity, Gas and Water 4. Construction Services 1. Wholesale and Retail Trade 2. Hotels and Restaurants 3. Transport and Communication 4. Banking, Insurance and Real Estate etc 5. Ownership of Dwellings 6. Government Services 7. Private Services

Employment Projections by Industry (a)Examine the average annual growth rates of Output in the major industrial sectors in the past (eg. during the past five years) (b)Examine the average annual growth rates of Employment in the major industrial sectors in the past (eg. during the past five years) (c)Using data in (a) and (b) estimate the average rate of growth of Productivity in the major industrial sectors (d)Make projections of Output for major industrial sectors for the future years (or obtain them from National Plans) (e)Determine the future rates of growth of Productivity for each industrial sector by taking into consideration of the changes in the productivity of capital and trained manpower. (f)Apply the projected rates of growth of Output to projected growth rates of Productivity and estimate the future Employment.

Major Occupational Categories 1.Legislators, Senior Officials and Managers 2.Professionals 3.Technicians and Associated Professionals 4.Clerks 5.Service Workers and Shop and Market Sales Workers 6.Skilled Agricultural and fishery Workers 7.Craft and Related Workers

Employment Projections by Occupation (a)Obtain the future employment projections by industry from the earlier exercise. (b)Construct an Industry/Occupation employment matrix as shown in the previous table at least for two points in time. (c)Examine the changes in industry/occupation employment coefficients. (d)Make changes in the coefficients as appropriate (e)Apply those coefficients to the projected employment by industry to obtain the employment projections by occupations.

B. Needs Based The need or requirement requires an estimate based on professional judgement of the number of workers necessary to attain and maintain a particular level of service. In some sectors like education and health, employment projections are made on need based taking into occount certain norms such as pupil / teacher or doctor / population ratios. The ratio method needs three basic sets of data: the existing supply of manpower of the type under consideration, the normative ratio to be used, and the projected population.

Employed Population The employed population comprises all persons above the minimum age specified for measurement of the economically active population who, during a short reference period of one week (Preferred option) (a) performed some work for pay, profit or family gain, in cash or kind; or (b) were temporarily absent from a job in which they had already worked and to which they maintained a formal attachment or from a self – employment activity such as a business enterprise, a farm or a service undertaking.

Employment Status a.Employee b.Employer c.Self – employed or own account worker d.Unpaid Family Worker

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