Hanoi, January 29 th 2015 Enrico Weber DEI – Politecnico di Milano IMRR Project 12 – Thac Ba policy design INTEGRATED AND SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT OF RED-THAI BINH RIVER SYSTEM IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

The Red-Thai Binh River basin

Thac Ba release optimization All photo from

Experiment settings Energy demand [GWh] 2 alternative hydropower objectives: 1) max Energy Production 2) min Weighted Deficit Deficit weight [%]

Off-line Management Problem or s.t.

Experiment settings Horizon: 2002/01/ /07/31 Reservoir inflow [m3/s]

Stochastic inflow model: AR(0)

Design algorithm Stochastic Dynamic Programming

First results Historical Reservoir level [GWh x year] [-] Yearly Energy ProductionYearly Weighted DeficitYearly Threshold Violation Days x year [m]

First results Historical EProd opt. constr. Reservoir level [GWh x year] [-] Yearly Threshold Violation Days x year [m] Yearly Energy ProductionYearly Weighted Deficit

First results Historical EProd opt. constr. Reservoir level [GWh x year] [-] Yearly Threshold Violation Days x year Deficit opt. [m] Yearly Energy ProductionYearly Weighted Deficit

First results Historical EProd opt. constr. Reservoir level [GWh x year] [-] Yearly Threshold Violation Days x year Deficit opt. Deficit opt. constr. [m] Yearly Energy ProductionYearly Weighted Deficit

First results Historical EProd opt. constr. Reservoir level [GWh x year] [-] Yearly Threshold Violation Days x year Deficit opt. Deficit opt. constr. EProd opt. [m] Yearly Energy ProductionYearly Weighted Deficit

First results Historical EProd opt. constr. Reservoir level [GWh x year] [-] Yearly Threshold Violation Days x year Deficit opt. Deficit opt. constr. EProd opt. Compromise [m] Yearly Energy ProductionYearly Weighted Deficit

First results Historical [GWh] Deficit Weight Daily Energy Production Energy Demand [-]

First results Historical EProd opt. constr. [GWh] Deficit Weight Daily Energy Production Energy Demand [-]

First results Historical EProd opt. constr. [GWh] Deficit Weight Deficit opt. Daily Energy Production Energy Demand [-]

First results Historical EProd opt. constr. [GWh] Deficit Weight Deficit opt. Deficit opt. constr. Daily Energy Production Energy Demand [-]

First results Historical EProd opt. constr. [GWh] Deficit Weight Deficit opt. Deficit opt. constr. EProd opt. Daily Energy Production Energy Demand [-]

First results Historical EProd opt. constr. [GWh] Deficit Weight Deficit opt. Deficit opt. constr. EProd opt. Compromise Daily Energy Production Energy Demand [-]

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