Introduction to Research Methods Voter turnout in the UK and the US

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The use of models in social sciences  Prediction is difficult in social science because of the ‘Oedipus effect’  Hence, most models are explanatory  The world is complex, probably increasingly so  Hence we need parsimonious and robust models to understand it  A theory that says nothing about practice/reality is a bad theory

Rational choice  All models make simplifying assumptions  Remember that rationality is judged in terms of a person’s goals – not whether a third party judges whether those goals are rational  People are rational and predictable at least some of the time – that’s what market research is all about

Voting  Benefits of voting are low. Chances of affecting outcome are small, but there may be other satisfactions derived from ‘taking part’  Costs are also relatively low, although variable. Costs of making decision may be higher than act. Hardly above rationality threshold.

A key insight  What rational choice tells us is that we should not be surprised that people do not vote, but that they do  Turnout is tending to fall slightly in established democracies, about 4 per cent from 1970s to 1990s, but very sharply more recently in the UK  Turnout tends to be very high in first elections in new democracies

So what?  Basic element of a democratic system, undermines legitimacy of that system if citizens do not vote  Democracy taken for granted by those who have it, most important element is guarantees of human rights, e.g., Chile  There is more to citizen engagement than voting – a concern primarily of the political class?

US comparison  Registration not turnout of those registered is the key variable  In presidential elections about 85% of those registered vote  But turnout of voter age population was 55.3% in 2004, although up from 51.3% in 2000 and 49.1% in 1996  Non-south voting level near that of 1820s when many voters were illiterate

Registration  Essentially a state function, but with federal interventions  Easy and lax in some states, difficult in others (especially south)  Registered individuals tend to be better educated, older, more politically interested and more socially connected

Discrimination  In the past ‘All the suffrage provisions … were phrased to exclude from the franchise not African-Americans as such but persons with certain characteristics most of whom would be African-Americans (Key)  4.7m felons disenfranchised, only a quarter in prison, half of them African American  Federal laws on residency requirements and motor voter programmes

Who is not registered in UK? Catgeory Percentage not registered Black African 37% Moved in last 6 months 33% Private renter 27% Students22% Inner London 18%

Key findings on registration  ections/index.cfm for full details ections/index.cfm ections/index.cfm  Overall non-registration rate is 8-9%, 3.5m missing  Mobility a key factor, non-registration declines with time at address  Reasons are both situational and attitudinal, e.g., perceptions of registration (jury service) and ultimately attitudes towards voting and politics

UK turnout trends % % % % %

The problem  ‘It seems clear that low turnouts are likely to be a permanent phenomenon’ (Worcester et al)  Making it easier to vote has limited impact and other costs such as fraud  PR systems have short run impact  Compulsory voting controversial

What doesn’t help explanation  Mechanics of voting  Levels of interest in politics – highly stable over time: very/fairly interested – 1973:60%, 2005:61%  Disappearance of tribal politics (outside N.Ireland)  Fewer voters have strong party attachment, only 20% with strong attachment

Turnout was higher in 2005  If seat was marginal – this seems to be a mobilisation rather than a voter interest effect, campaigning makes a difference  Had a strong Lib Dem or minor party presence  Above average numbers of elderly and well educated voters

Social factors  Turnout well above the national average in safe Cons. seats and low in safe Labour seats  Social exclusion matched by political exclusion: those in working class occupations, have few educational qualifications or are unemployed are less likely to vote

‘Duty to vote’  Correlation between turnout and duty to vote by age is very high: R squared =  Age is a key variable, 37% of those aged voted, compared with 75% of those who are 65+  If this is a generational effect, turnout is likely to continue to decline

Other factors  AB social class 71%, DE 54%  No gender differences  High levels of distrust in political parties, have lowest ratings across Europe of any political institution  Reflected in success of independents  But offer voters a structured choice

Core issue is low turnout of young voters  Not apathy but disengagement from politicians and political process  Henn et al show they support democratic process but are sceptical of how it works and are turned off by politicians and political parties  Young people do not consider political system open to them or responsive to their needs

Not a homogeneous group  Big differences based on social class and education, some gender effects, but no major ethnicity or regional effects  This is consistent with comparative literature which suggests social capital/networks important in transition for young person to regular voter

Broad perspectives  Young people less involved because of lifestyles and ‘start up’ problems  Campaigns focus on middle aged middle England  Young people have a ‘new politics’ agenda, but membership in cause groups not high  ‘Generational’ – more difficult to be young, fewer ways of transmitting knowledge about politics

Conclusions  Problem is more one of alienation rather than apathy  There is a small core of young people engaged with new social movements  Political system is failing to provide stimuli to young people to engage, hence crisis of democratic legitimacy