Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation MARS BULLETIN Vol. 23 No 8 – AUGUST 2015

Content Agro-meteorological overview Meteorological review (1 July – 18 August) Weather anomalies and areas of concern Crop development Forecasts Country analysis 223 October 2015

Meteorological review (1 July – 18 August) Temperatures 23 October Substantially warmer-than- average in central Europe, Spain, France, the Balkan Peninsula and the Black Sea region. Warmest period on our records in many regions of central Europe, Italy and the Balkan Peninsula, where a series of heat waves affected the growth of summer crops.

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5 Precipitation Rainfall deficit in eastern France, northern Italy, major parts of central and eastern Europe, and the Balkan Peninsula. Rainfall surplus in northern Germany, the British Isles and northern Europe.

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Weather anomalies 15 August – 19 September 723 October 2015 Series of heat waves Hot and dry conditions, Affecting flowering, pollination and grain filling of summer crops.

Crop development and precocity 823 October 2015

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1023 October 2015 Soil moisture conditions

Weather conditions around harvesting (update 2 nd dekad of August) 1123 October 2015

Crop yield forecast tables 1223 October 2015

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France  Since 1 July unfavourable weather for summer crops:  unusually hot  below-average precipitation.  Rainfall during first half of August in south- western regions of Aquitaine, Poitou- Charentes and Midi-Pyrénées benefited maize during initial grain-filling.  But crops continue suffering from dry conditions in Rhône-Alpes and Centre.  Yield outlook for maize below average  Rainfall needed in the coming two weeks to avoid further damages.

Germany Heatwaves during July and August compromised maize yield potential, particularly in the south. Cooler periods with low night-time temperatures in between the heat waves. Rain surplus in the north; rain deficit in the south, where soil moisture levels are critically low. Frequent rains in the north hampered harvest activities Cereal yield forecasts around average but well below last year Yield forecast for maize revised downwards October 2015

Poland  July and August exceptionally hot in central and southern Poland.  Precipitation below the average in most of the country and concentrated in the first half of July; almost no rainfall since then.  Dry and hot conditions negatively impacted the yield potential of summer crops, especially maize; and particularly in the western half of the country (Dolnoslaskie, Opolskie).  Yield expectations for summer crops revised downwards

31 United Kingdom and Ireland  Temperatures around or below average.  Rainfall around or above average.  Barley and oilseed rape mostly harvested; harvesting of wheat well underway.  First reports suggest good yields and quality, despite frequent rains hampering harvest in Ireland and northern UK.  Rains in south-eastern England concentrated in fewer larger events, particularly benefiting sugar beet and potato.  Yield forecasts mostly revised slightly upward; remain above the five-year average.

Spain and Portugal  The dry and hot conditions of early summer continued from July onwards.  In the north, temperatures fell to seasonal values in the first half of August.  Sunflower crops now being harvested  Yields expected to be well below average due to lack of precipitation.  Average outlook for other summer crops, as water storage has been sufficient to satisfy irrigation demands.

Italy 33  So far, one of the warmest summers experienced in many regions across Italy  Average temperatures about 3°C higher than seasonal values.  Rainfall was slightly below average in the north (Lombardia and Emilia Romagna), and above average in the south (Sicily, Calabria and Lazio).  Summer crops development advanced, but prolonged high temperatures could negatively affect crop growth. Irrigation and some beneficial rainfall should partially limit the damage.  Yields expected to be lower than last year for maize and durum wheat, and close to average for soft wheat and sugar beets.

34 Hungary  Hottest period under review of the past 40 years.  Since 1 July, three long heat waves.  Precipitation half of the average until mid- August. Followed by excessive, locally devastating rainfall (up to 100 mm/day).  Grain cereals were harvested quickly and with no losses.  The very high temperatures and water scarcity considerably compromised the pollination and yield formation of maize.  Biomass accumulation of potatoes and sugar beets was also badly affected.  Yield outlook for summer crops revised downwards.

35 Romania  One of the warmest summers since  Below average rainfall during period of review.  Development of summer crops advanced by 1-2 weeks.  Soil moisture supply below optimal primarily for grain maize, but also for sunflowers during the flowering and the first half of the grain-filling stages, with the exception of the Centru and Sud-Muntenia regions.  High temperatures negatively affected photosynthesis in potatoes and sugar beets, and causes early leaf senescence.  The model simulations indicate constrained biomass accumulation

36 Bulgaria  Temperatures 1-3°C > LTA.  Last dekad of July particularly warm; daily maxima exceeding 35°C, locally upto 40°C.  In July, scarce precipitation (<10 mm) in southern Bulgaria; mm in the northern half of the country: facilitated harvest.  Heavy showers (up to 100 mm) in south- western area on the last day of July.  First half of August again very dry.  Due to water stress, summer crops biomass accumulation considerably reduced since mid-July.

37 Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia Dry and very warm  Period of review warmest of our records.  Long-term average temperature exceeded by 4°C (by up to 6°C in the Czech Republic).  Three heat waves since the beginning of July, with daily maxima >> 30°C (close to 38°C in major agricultural areas.  Rainfall << LTA, especially in the Czech Republic.  Pronounced soil moisture deficit and extremely high temperatures at the end of July and during the first half of August limited the growth of summer crops.  Forecasts for summer crop yields revised downwards.

Denmark and Sweden 38 Favourable yield outlook  Relatively cold from 10 July to early August.  Rainfall has been generally good; excess rain (30-50 mm above the mean) around half August in Sweden (Ostra Mellansverige) and northern Denmark.  Winter barley harvest underway; spring barley has reached maturity.  Crop forecast unchanged:  Above average yield outlook for winter crops, particularly barley and rapeseed;  Around average for spring and summer crops.

Finland and the Baltic countries 39  In the Baltic countries:  Cool and wet second half of July benefited summer crops.  Yield expectations for summer crops slightly above average in Latvia but below average in Lithuania due to dry June and August.  Yield expectations for spring crops above average in Latvia and Estonia; close to the average in Lithuania.  Warm and dry conditions in August provided optimal conditions for harvesting of winter crops.  In Finland, persistent wet and cold conditions during July led to a decrease in both spring and summer crop expectations, and delayed harvesting activities.

40 Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg Fairly good yield outlook  Distinct heatwave at the beginning of July.  Overall, temperatures > LTA; up to 3°C in Luxembourg.  Rainfall above average in the Netherlands, around average in Belgium; well below average in Luxembourg.  First 12 days of August generally dry; good harvest conditions for winter crops.  Wheat, barley and oilseed rape mostly been harvested; first reports suggest good yields and quality.  Spring- and summer crops benefited from improved soil-water conditions.  Yield forecasts revised slightly upwards; mostly remaining around five-year average

41 Greece and Cyprus Temperatures in July and August consistently above long-term average in mainland Greece; around average in the islands. High temperatures (Tmax > 40°C) around 30 July for very short period (1 or 2 days). July very dry, especially in central and northern regions. First half of August rainy in all agricultural areas. Biomass accumulation above average for grain maize (currently in the grain-filling stage). In Cyprus, the review period was completely dry and temperatures were mainly above average.

42 Slovenia and Croatia  Review period warmest in our records.  Series of heat waves, with maximum air temperatures close to 38°C.  Rainfall since the beginning of July substantially below long-term-average in eastern Croatia and north-eastern Slovenia.  Extremely hot and dry weather limited summer crop growth in major agricultural areas.  Soil moisture was most severely depleted over eastern Croatia.  Heat and drought stress during flowering and grain-filling reduced the number of grains as well as starch accumulation, thus lowering yield potential of grain maize.  Summer crop yields revised downwards.

Thank you for your attention 4323 October 2015