Climate implications for Agricultural Production within the Murray Valley of NSW Michael Cashen – Climatologist, Agriculture John Smith – District Agronomist, Barham

So what’s the talk about? The three P’s Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB Relevant research quantifying uncertainty Impacts on farming systems Future implications for farm businesses and Deniliquin

The three P’s of climate change Peripheral Policy Physical

Policy responses- Climate Change  Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) and Carbon Tax.  Water policy review (MDBA- draft basin plan)  Exceptional circumstance policy review

Peripheral responses-Climate Change Niche marketing and preferential buying  Food miles  Carbon footprint (life cycle analysis)  Carbon neutral Our focus today- Physical (science and biophysical impacts on Ag)

So what’s the talk about? The three P’s Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB Relevant research quantifying uncertainty Impacts on farming systems Future implications for farm businesses and Deniliquin

Rainfall in Deniliquin ( ) Data source: SILO Data Drill Iconic droughts , and

Seasonal analysis rainfall ( ) Data source: SILO Data Drill

Autumn rainfall-Deniliquin Data source: SILO Data Drill

Murray Darling Basin- temperatures

Murray Darling Basin- annual rainfall Iconic droughts , and

MDB- Winter and Spring rainfall Data source: BoM Drivers of winter/spring variability ENSO/IOD Ummenhofer et al 2010

4 Sites Seasonal rainfall trends

Autumn rainfall-Deniliquin Data source: SILO Data Drill

Impact on Deniliquin Source: S Gannon Westpac %

So what’s the talk about? The three P’s Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB Relevant research quantifying uncertainty Impacts on farming systems Future implications for farm businesses and Deniliquin

The Subtropical Ridge

STR Changes and temperature

STR Impacts

Quantifying uncertainty

So what’s the talk about? The three P’s Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB Relevant research quantifying uncertainty Impacts on farming systems Future implications for farm businesses and Deniliquin

Reduced PAW in winter crop growing season Stored soil moisture = 69.2mm Stored soil moisture = 40.7mm (-28.5mm)

Reduced PAW in winter crop growing season GCM predictions

Implications for reduced water  Changes in water priorities –Less water available when decisions need to be made Winter crops for yield potential Calculated risk on water availability for rice

Implications for industry – rice (Gaydon et al., 2010)  Declines in irrigation water supply -ve impact  Potential increases in water demand (?) - increased ET but quicker growth  Low-temperature damage may be reduced (?)  Significant improvements in water productivity difficult under existing systems – less water = less rice

Rice farming system changes  Adaptation –Drill sowing - Farm layouts –Aerobic rice - New Varieties –AWD- Irrigation methods

Implications for industry – grains (Howden et al., 2010)  Enhanced growth with elevated CO 2 –Increased photosynthetic rates and WUE  Reduced frost risk  Accelerated plant development with increased temp. –Reduced yield without variety adaptation –More rapid depletion of soil moisture  Rainfall is a key determinant of yield – considerable risk of lower rainfall = lower yield

Implications for industry – grains (Howden et al., 2010)  Pests and disease - variable but for us –Stripe rust increase with milder winter temps, quicker life cycle –Viral Diseases (Barley Yellow Dwarf) increase with warmer winter temps, more aphid activity –Take all decrease, favoured by wet soil conditions

Take home message -Temps are up -Autumn rainfall down -STR intensification driving autumn decline (temp) -GCM uncertainty around autumn (under estimate?) -Impacting on water availability -Less water less production

So what’s the talk about? The three P’s Climate indicators Deniliquin and MDB Relevant research quantifying uncertainty Impacts on farming systems Future implications for farm businesses and Deniliquin

Future implications for farms  Scale (Diversification)  Return on water and land asset base (Review)  Equity level (Key to survival)  Flexible systems (annual –turn on or off)

References Gaydon DS, Beecher HG, Reinke R, Crimp S and Howden SM (2010) ‘Rice’. In Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change. CSIRO Publishing Howden SM, Gifford RG and Meinke H (2010) ‘Grains’. In Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change. CSIRO Publishing Timbal B (2010) ‘Understanding the anthropogenic nature of observed rainfall decline across south-eastern Australia. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Technical Report No. 026 Ummenhofer CC, Alexander SG, Briggs PR, England MH, McIntosh PC, Meyers GA, Pook MJ, Raupach MR, Risbey JS (2010). Indian and Pacific Ocean Influences on Southeast Australian Drought and Soil Moisture. Journal of Climate. Published on line in ( DOI /2010JCLI3475.1http://journals.ametsoc.org

Additional slides

El Nino Southern Oscillation Image source: Bureau of Meteorology

Indian Ocean Dipole Image source:

The years of ENSO/IOD (Ummenhofer et al 2010)

Impact of ENSO/IOD events MDB Figures inside brackets indicated number of events ( ) Note: variation in impact between case study sites