USDA and NOAA Partnerships: Data, Decision Making, and the Advent of NIDIS Presented to the NWS Eastern Region and Southern Region 2007 Climate Workshop 2007 Climate Workshop June 21, 2007 Mark D. Brusberg USDA Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Outlook Board

Background Information The United States Department of Agriculture has numerous interests in the field of weather monitoring and impact assessment: Global Monitoring and Assessment Ground Truth for Remote Sensing Crop Insurance Programs Western Water Supply Forecasting Research Fire Weather

Chief Meteorologist Joint Agricultural Weather Facility Remote Sensing Coordinator Interagency Agricultural Projections Coordinator OCE Chief Economist Secretary/Deputy Secretary USDA Situation and Outlook Organizational Structure WAOB Chairperson GrainsOilseedsLivestockFibers Specialty Crops Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees Chaired by WAOB Senior Analysts OCE Organizational Structure

NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF)  Jointly operated by NOAA/NWS and USDA/OCE (Washington, D.C.)  USDA and NWS (CPC) meteorologists work together as a team  Mission: Keep the Nation’s growers, exporters, USDA commodity analysts, as well as the Secretary and top staff informed of world-wide weather related developments and their effects on crops and livestock  Routinely collect global weather data and agricultural information to determine the impact of growing season weather conditions on crops and livestock production prospects  Directly advise the Office of the Chief Economist and the Secretary of Agriculture on weather related agricultural developments  Provide crop-weather assessments for WAOB’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) lockup report  Disseminate global weather data to other agencies within USDA

Meteorological Surface Data Metar (~ 5,000 stations) Frequency of reporting: 1 hour Wind speed Temperature Precipitation (U.S. only) Dew point Synoptic (~ 7,000 stations) Frequency of reporting: 3 hours Wind speed Temperature Precipitation Dew point Summarized by CPC from hourly data Maximum temperature Minimum temperature Total precipitation 3-Hourly observed weather Hourly Daily

Agrometeorological Indices Vapor Pressure Deficit Temperature Dew point Potential Evapotranspiration Temperature Dew point Wind speed Soil Moisture Precipitation PET Growing Degree Days Temperature Crop Stress Index Temperature VPD Wind speed

Daily Activities and Assessments  Morning US Weather Briefing and Report (WAOB, NWS)  Afternoon Global Weather Briefing (NWS)  Daily Highlights of Agricultural Developments (WAOB)  Special Reports (WAOB)

Weekly Activities and Assessments  Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin  U.S. and foreign weather analyses and tabular weather data (NWS)  U.S. Agricultural Summary (NASS)  National and International Weather and Crop Summaries (WAOB)  USDA Secretary Briefing (WAOB, NWS)  Highlight relevant global crop-weather impacts for USDA top staff  Drought Monitor (NOAA, WAOB, NDMC)  Global Weather Briefing for USDA analysts (NWS)  Media (WAOB, NWS)

Monthly Activities and Assessments  World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE) Lockup  Crop-weather assessments are integrated into USDA’s monthly crop production estimation procedures (WAOB)  World Agricultural Weather Highlights Map (WAOB)  North American Drought Monitor (NOAA, WAOB, NDMC, Canada, Mexico)

USDA Organization Chart Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (Office of Chief Economist) Other partnerships exist between USDA and NOAA!

Question: How can NOAA more effectively coordinate weather and climate data requirements for both operations and policy decisions across a wide spectrum of disciplines?

Goal: To enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to droughts.Goal: To enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to droughts. National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) WGA (1996) DPC (2000) NIDIS Act (2006) (2006) USGEOSS(2006) WGA (2004) Implementation Plan (2007) (2007)

NIDIS VISION and GOALS As originally envisioned by the Western Governors’ Association (1996): “A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.” Implementation requires:  Coordination of a national drought monitoring and forecasting system  Creating a drought early warning system  Providing an interactive drought information delivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)  Designing mechanisms for improved interaction with public (education materials, fora, etc)

 Desiging and establishing the NIDIS Project Office:  Desiging and establishing the NIDIS Project Office: Structure, implementation teams and governance (including Executive Council)  Setting National Goals   Engaging the preparedness communities   Monitoring and forecasting: gaps and capacity   Education and Outreach   Integrated research for generating drought risk scenarios   The Drought Portal   Climate Test-Bed  Designing Regional/State DEWS Pilots:  Designing Regional/State DEWS Pilots: Goals, Design, Implementation, Evaluation, Transferability  Developing Partnerships  Developing Partnerships: Federal, State, Tribal, Local, Watersheds NIDIS VISION and GOALS First steps toward implementation First steps toward implementation:

 Interagency and Interstate NIDIS Team and Implementation Plan  U.S. Drought Portal  Presentations to various stakeholder and other communities by Project Team members: Creating a drought response community  Identify and review NOAA cross-line activities in support of NIDIS  Workshops to initiate pilot team and prototype design: Cross-agency and cross-state coordination. Note: All activities designated as “NIDIS pilots” must be approved by the NIDIS Team  Focusing Climate Test-Bed activities in pilot locations  USGS detail to the NIDIS Program office (others?)  Partnerships with California Department of Water Resources, Western States Water Council (others) Western States Water Council (others)  National Workshop: Status of Drought Early Warning in the U.S.  USGEO Steps Toward Implementation

Governance Structure for NIDIS Implementation NIDIS Executive Council Co-chairs: Director, NOAA Climate Program Office (or designee) Director, National Drought Mitigation Center (or designee) NIDIS Program Office (NPO Director) Coordinate NIDIS-relevant cross-NOAA and Interagency drought-related activities Develop a national presence for NIDIS (e.g. formal links to National Governors Ass’n) Participate in GEOSS / IEOS Public Awareness And Education Integrated Monitoring and Forecasting Interdisciplinary Research and Applications Engaging Preparedness Communities U.S. Drought Portal NIDIS Program Implementation Team (NPIT) Working-Level Partner Representatives Coordinate and develop evaluation criteria for all NIDIS activities including pilot project selection Chair: NPO Director National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning System Design, Pilots, and Implementation NIDIS Technical Working Groups Federal, Regional, State, Tribal and Local Partner Leads Embedded in national and regional, and local NIDIS Activities Develop pilot implementation and transferability criteria Co-Chairs selected by NPIT

Coming soon:

NIDIS Pilots first series FY09 (selected by the Project implementation Team) Colorado River Basin Chesapeake Bay Montana Missouri/ Oklahoma Mississippi

Monitoring and forecasting National, regional and local levels gap analyses and product tailoring, benefits of additional (soil moisture, etc.) sensors. Real time data streams Risk assessment Risk assessment Enable resource and other management authorities to generate risk and impact scenarios (e.g., indicators, triggers, risk analysis in particular settings for EWS) Raising Public awareness of drought risks Goal Areas for the Pilots Preparedness Preparedness Outline and inform actions required to reduce the loss and damage expected from an impending hazard event Communication Communication Delivery of timely information on impending events, potential risk scenarios and preparedness strategies Evaluation and feedback Evaluation and feedback

Long-Term (>5 years) Short–Term (1-3 years) Begin Pilots: - Establish local partnerships - Identify regional capabilities to address goal areas - Identify activities to improve capabilities Summary of Pilot Goals and Timelines Evaluate Pilots: - Effectiveness within region - Understanding of local drought - Ability to monitor, predict, and mitigate Transition to non- Pilot areas Initiate second series of Pilots Transition to National Program Delivery of National Products to Regional and Local Level Continued Refinement Mid–Term (3-5 years)

Questions?