Dr. C. Lee Giles David Reese Professor, College of Information Sciences and Technology Professor of Computer Science and Engineering Professor of Supply Chain and Information Systems The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA IST 511 Information Management: Information and Technology What is Science and the Scientific Method Thanks to Tyler Nordgren

What is Science? "Equipped with his five senses, man explores the universe around him and calls the adventure Science” Science is a process for investigating and explaining the natural world Science creates theories and “laws”, all of which are testable –Theories explain laws –Laws predict Edwin Hubble,

What is science? Science is a tool. Medicine: “I have high cholesterol, what should I do?” Actions: –Take cholesterol lowering medication. –Change your behavior. –Consult your astrologer. –Pray to the god Baal and sacrifice a goat.

The Scientific Method Observe an event(s). Develop a model (or hypothesis) which makes a prediction to explain the event Test the prediction with data Observe the result. Revise the hypothesis. Repeat as needed. A successful hypothesis becomes a Scientific Theory. model test

Medical Science Scientific MethodHigh Cholesterol ObservationPatient has high cholesterol Hypothesis (prediction)Certain chemicals may dissolve cholesterol deposits. TestGive 100 patients these chemicals, give 100 patients placebo. Observe resultSame number lower their cholesterol as placebo patients. Revise hypothesis?Try different combo of chemicals. New test?Re-run medical test. Observe results. Scientific TheoryLipitor reduces cholesterol.

Everyday Science Scientific MethodCar Repair ObservationEngine won’t turn over. Hypothesis (prediction)Predict battery is dead. TestReplace battery. Observe resultEngine now turns over. Revise hypothesis?Not needed. New test?Not needed. Scientific TheoryCars won’t work without a fully charged battery.

Everyday Science Scientific MethodMaking Spaghetti Sauce ObservationSpaghetti sauce should be red. Hypothesis (prediction)Try a tomato sauce. TestHeat pot of tomato sauce. Observe resultTaste the sauce - bland. Revise hypothesis?Use tomato sauce and garlic! New test?Add garlic, taste - not so bland. Scientific TheoryThe Final Recipe.

Food Science Throwing something together  Hypothesis Your grandmother’s time-tested recipe  Scientific Theory.

Repeatability A successful theory is repeatable. –By you. –By anyone. Examples: –Cold Fusion (1989) –Ecstasy (Science, 2003) Science can be done well or poorly

Requirements Objective reality –We all see the same world. Constant Laws of Nature –What happens here, happens there. –What happened yesterday will happen tomorrow. The Cosmos is knowable.

Does it work? Scientific Method is a tool. Does this tool work? –Life expectancy –Mortality rates –Construction/mechanics –etc Are there better tools?

Recap: Theories, Guesses, Laws What does the word “Theory” mean to you? “A conjecture; guess” (Webster’s Dictionary) Does it mean the same to a scientist? “A model which has been born out by repeated tests and observation.” Is a Theory less than a Law? “Evolution is just a theory, it is not a fact.” Do Theories “grow up” to be Laws? “Einstein’s Theory of Relativity”

Theories A theory is a highly successful hypothesis. All hypotheses make predictions. All theories make predictions. All theories can be tested. Result: Any scientific theory is subject to change as our ability to make tests, or make observations of a test’s results, improves with time.

Non-scientific Theories Make no predictions Un-testable Can’t be falsified

Non-scientific Theories Car won’t work?  Aliens drained the battery. Spaghetti is bland?  You were meant to eat bland food. Car won’t work?  Gods must be angry. Spaghetti is bland?  At the instant of tasting, tongue is transported to alternate dimension where all flavors are rendered nullified. Happens instantaneously.

Non-scientific Theories The chain of events needed for life to arise is too complicated to have happened by chance, a divine intelligence must therefore have caused life to arise (Intelligent Design). Face on Mars. Viking Orbiter (1976)Mars Global Surveyor (1998)

Falsification A real Scientific Theory tells you what observations are necessary to falsify it. –Not so proponents of: Face on Mars Moon Hoax Intelligent Design Astrologers

Astrology Tests What test would falsify astrology?

Astrology and a President (TIME, May 16, 1988) -- “The First Lady dabbled in astrology as far back as In 1981 [Joan] Quigley made Nancy a believer …. And from then on, no presidential public appearance was slated without the Friend's say-so. To this day, Nancy's Friend continues to influence the President's schedule. For the Reagan-Gorbachev Washington summit, she cast the charts of both men and determined that 2 p.m. on Dec. 8, 1987, was the most propitious moment for them to sign the intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty. At Nancy's behest, the entire summit was built around that hour. For the upcoming Moscow summit, Gorbachev's chart (he is a Pisces) has been recast alongside Reagan's (Aquarius).” “[Former White House Chief of Staff, Donald] Regan and others make a compelling case that in 1986 and 1987 astrological influence dramatically reduced the presidency's effectiveness, at least partly, by keeping Ronald Reagan under wraps for much of the time. Nancy's intrusions in the scheduling process, Regan said in an interview with TIME last week, ‘began to interfere with the normal conduct of the presidency.’” (TIME, May 16, 1988)

Science as a Tool Kit Science is an intellectual “tool kit” that humans have developed for the purpose of explaining and controlling our environment It is an intensely practical endeavor –Not a “belief system” predicated upon faith or adherence to anything other than a requirement for practical results –Thereby achieving a measure of control The fruits of this endeavor are –New knowledge –New technology Technology and science often work hand in hand. –Technology can produce new science –Science can produce new technology –Which is more important?

What is Technology? Technology is the process by which humans modify nature to meet their needs and wants.

Technology vs. Science Technology –Study of our human- made world –Deals with “what can be” Science –Study of our natural world –Deals with “what is”

Science as a Tool Kit Like any tool kit, it has been amassed gradually –The invention and development of Science has a history

The History of Science Science is a relatively recent endeavor Certain technological advances were known to the ancients –The axle/wheel unit ~7000 BCE in Europe –Paper in China ~600 BCE –Gunpowder (again in China) ~900 CE –The compass ~80 CE But technology is not science

The History of Science Such advances were sporadic and did not rely on a coherent system of investigation –“Accidental” & didn’t hinge on a systematic approach to their development Thales of Miletus –Perhaps the first scientist –The “first to express his ideas in logical and not mythological terms” But the true development of science awaited the invention of one of its major components… BCE

The Experiment A crucial component of the scientific process –Cited by Peter Watson as one of the three great ideas in the history of humanity Robert Grosseteste –Emphasized mathematics –Observation & experiment as the essential methods to test hypotheses Roger Bacon –Predicted that science would someday give mastery over nature Forecast submarines, automobiles and airplanes c – 9 October 1253 c – 1294

“These principles transformed the study of scientific data from a fairly random exercise to an integrated mathematical inquiry into physical phenomena based upon the tripartite cycle of observation, hypothesis and experimental verification” The Emergence of Science – William Chester Jordan, Europe in the High Middle Ages

The Scientific Toolkit Observation Hypothesis Measurement –Refined observation Experiment Conclusions Predictions Revision (or discarding) of conclusions Collective / Cumulative

Integration of the Scientific Toolkit Experiment and hypothesis must produce tangible results Derived conclusions must be: –Tentative –Testable –Falsifiable –Lead to predictions which in turn can be tested by observation, measurement and experiment Science is self-correcting

Stuttering Progress The history of scientific thought is uneven and stuttering –Many blind alleys are pursued and (eventually) discarded or modified –Newton was only partially correct –Einstein modified and extended Newtonian physics In the end, though, its progress has been remarkable and singularly successful in defining & controlling external reality –And giving evidence for the existence of external reality “There are no pure social constructionists at 30,000 feet”

The Rules of Science

Negative Rules of Science (things which are not done) Adhere to dogma –i.e. conclusions are always tentative –This does not mean that faith is “bad” It just means that it is not part of the scientific process Resort to the supernatural –Note that science does not say there is no supernatural or that you can’t turn to it Again, it just says that if you do so it ceases to be science

Compromise Compromise and “fairness” are not part of Science = 4 vs = 6 does not mean that = 5 One does not “teach both sides” if one side has overwhelming evidence to support it

Absolutes vs Relative Science has absolutes Gravity Try stepping off a bridge How often will you fall? Only if you take actions not to fall or Where there is no gravity Relativity and uncertainty in physics is not relative

Intellectual Tension in the Pursuit of Science Scientists must balance many seemingly contradictory impulses Eternal skepticism vs. open mindedness –Doubting one’s own and other’s hypotheses / Demanding evidence –Eschewing dogma –Considering new (sometimes disturbing) explanations for the world –The inadequacy of the concept of “majority”

An Important Corollary Common Sense is not Necessarily a Good Guide to External Reality

Intellectual Tension in the Pursuit of Science These inherent tensions are often misunderstood by non-scientists –They see the very strength of science (its tentativeness) as a weakness –“Fiber prevents colon cancer” ….”oops, no it doesn’t” –Whether babies should be placed on their backs or their stomachs to prevent SIDS

Evolution as a Case Study Evolutionary theory explains the diversity of life and its underlying cohesion Observation –Homologous structures in different organisms –Similarities in embryos Hypothesis –Common Descent with natural selection as a driving force in speciation

Evolution as a Case Study Prediction –The mechanism underlying heredity must be compatible with random heritable change & subject to selective pressures Modern genetics is nothing more than a grand fulfillment of predictions inherent in evolutionary theory as laid out by Darwin and others –The age of the earth –Discovery of intermediate fossil forms Archyopteryx Tiktaalik roseae

Evolution as a Case Study Experiment –Viral and bacterial changes due to selective pressures Antibiotics –Decades of data on finch beaks on the Galapagos –Dog and pigeon breeding Tentativeness and Revision –Darwin’s original theory allowed a role for Lamarckian inheritance of acquired characteristics Now discredited

Evolution and Medicine Evolution is central to all of biology and to medicine It answers many questions that begin with “Why” –Why 80% of us suffer back pain –Why modern diseases in developed countries kick in once we are past reproductive age –Why diabetes is a modern epidemic

Friction Between Science and Culture Arises because science has a tangible impact on questions that it can inform but not fully answer –When does life begin? –When does life end? –Where did humanity come from? In so doing it inevitably encounters friction with belief systems that have sought to explain some of the same things

Science vs. Religion Since the rise of modern science, tension has existed between it and religion Science does undermine certain religious claims –The earth is more than 6000 years old –It was not predominantly shaped by a great flood –Humans did not appear de novo in their present form within the last few thousand years

Science and Religion The explanatory success of science cannot tell us how to act in the realm of morality and ethics –Though science does illuminate much about the existence of ethics via evolutionary psychology and neurobiology A reliance on science is not inherently inconsistent with the existence of a god –Empirically demonstrated by the fact that there are many scientists who believe in a god

Why Does it Matter? The power of science is formidable Many want the impressive imprimatur of science without actually following its rules –Ideology Those who seek to teach religion in the guise of science do both a disservice –Profit Medical quackery

Why Does it Matter? Lysenko set the Soviet Union back by decades (and millions starved) because of junk science Mao dismissed Einsteinian physics as at odds with Marxist philosophy of an “infinite universe with endless class struggle” We ignore scientific evidence of global warming and environmental degradation at our own peril

Why Does it Matter?

Science has brought great misery in addition to benefits –War has been a driving force in the development of science and technology –Unintended consequences of material benefits We need to understand the tangible impact of science for good and for ill

Intangible Impact of Science Sheer pleasure in understanding our world A component of awe and wonder Bringing an added dimension of beauty to our appreciation of the world

An Added Dimension of Beauty

The Limits of Science Are there physical limits to our knowledge? –Animal brains are limited; are ours? Are our brains are up to the job of omniscience? –Will we complement our brains? Moral issues –Computational morality/ethics Policy Information science seems to be important in all arenas – the only need is the use of information.

Values in Science Integrity Honesty Constant questioning, experiments Data (without data, there is no science) To be a science, there must be data Data rules!

eScience: What is it? Synthesis of information technology and science. Science methods are evolving (tools). Science is being codified/objectified. How represent scientific information and knowledge in computers? Science faces a data deluge. How to manage and analyze information? Scientific communication changing publishing data & literature (curation, access, preservation)

Science Paradigms Thousand years ago: science was empirical describing natural phenomena Last few hundred years: theoretical branch using models, generalizations Last few decades: a computational branch simulating complex phenomena Today: data science (eScience) unify theory, experiment, and simulation –Data captured by instruments or generated by simulator –Processed by software –Information/Knowledge stored in computer –Scientist analyzes database / files using data management and statistics

Can Information Science help eScience? Data management Data access Data structure Data search Data storage Data gathering Cyberinfrastructure Ex at IST:

Discussion Questions Are these sciences? –Economics –Political science –Information science –Sociology –Astronomy What is the role of information in science or escience?