Demography of the Middle East John Bongaarts Population Council
Middle East Region
Outline Population growth and consequences Age structure changes: youth “bulge”, labor force growth Why population growth continues Population policy options
Adverse Effects of Rapid Population Growth • Environmental: Degradation of natural resources (land, water), pollution • Economic: Low wages, poverty, slow growth • Governmental: Lagging investment in education, health services and infrastructure • Political Growth of political extremism and anti-Western sentiments
2) Age structure changes: youth “bulge”, labor force growth
3) Why population growth continues
Why population growth continues in the developing world Fertility remains relatively high Declining mortality Population momentum due to a young age structure
4) Population policy options
Past response to concern about population growth Implement family planning programs to: Provide access to and information about contraception Reduce unmet need for contraception
Causes of growth Policy options 1) High fertility - Unwanted Strengthen family planning programs - Wanted Invest in human capital 2) Declining mortality 3) Momentum of population growth Delay childbearing
Conclusions ME population is expected to double by 2050 Substantial environmental, economic and political consequences Policy options available: - strengthen family planning programs - invest in human capital - address needs of the young