Signaling & International Politics John Lee Department of Political Science Florida State University

The Problem How do states communicate information about themselves? Cheap Talk – The costless communication of information.

Rationalist Explanations for War 1.Private information with the incentive to misrepresent. – You are unsure about my probability of victory. Because I know that a bargain is based on my probability of victory I tell you that I will with p = 1. – But, you know that I have an incentive to say that p = 1, so you discount what I say as cheap talk…

Costly Signals Costly Signal – Forms of communication which are not “free.” For example, the United States could signal its resolve to attack Iran by deploying naval vessels/troops to the Iranian border.

Types of Costly Signals 1.Domestic-Political – The institutional make- up of a state may allow the transmission of costly information (e.g. democracies v autocracies). 2.Military – The use/mobilization of military forces may allow the transmission of costly information (Slantchev 2005).

Domestic-Political Audience Costs – Electoral penalties leaders suffer for “bad actions.” Leaders who make threats and back down are removed from office. Thus, a military threat from a democratic leader is costly to that leader. – Leaders want to stay in power. – Is a free press necessary (Slantchev 2006).

IR as Two-Level Game Leaders of states worry about two audiences. – Domestic constituencies. – International actors (e.g. other states). Think about farm subsidies in US. Good for US farmers, bad for third world countries. Possibility of multiple levels?

Why Audience Costs? 1.National honor/reputation (see for example Fearon 1994). 2.Leader competence. Leader knows his/her competence…citizens are unsure. Foreign policy outcomes represent noisy signals regarding a leader’s competency. Incompetent leaders make threats and then back down more frequently, since they expect poor outcomes (Smith 1998).

Audience Costs – Just Democracies? Weeks (2008) audiences of all leaders value (1) good international reputations and (2) competent leaders. As a result, any leader with an audience should face audience costs if foreign policy decisions (1) hurt reputation or (2) signal competence. All leaders have winning coalitions, but do all care about international reputation/competence?

Military Signals States that undertake military preparations send clear signal to other side that their threats are not hollow. These types of signals can increase the probability of war since they diminish the cost of conflict (sunk costs). Generally considered more informative than actions that qualify for “audience costs.”

Other Sources of Information Opposition political parties in democracies reveal information about resolve. If both parties agree on policy this result sends a strong signal about a country’s resolve (Schultz 1998).