Sustainability Freshman Inquiry Jan. 27, 2010 Jeff Fletcher

Logistics Service experiences –Recyclemania and/or Garden Preparation Possible EC assignment –Food Inc. Sunday 1/31 8pm Ondine Lobby Due Now: –HW 2 (Bad Apples) Due Next Monday: –Read Kolbert Chapters 8, 9, 10, afterward and chronology (p ) –Meet in group for discussion, write one paragraph Mentor Session Today –Stabilization Wedges

Catastrophe: Group Follow-up Thermohaline Circulation (N. Atlantic) (worldwide)Thermohaline Circulationworldwide –8,200 years ago thermohaline disruption?thermohaline disruption Comma Butterfly of England Golden Toad (Monteverde Cloud Forest)Golden ToadMonteverde Cloud Forest Wyeomyia smithii MosquitoMosquito –Video ( ston_globe_29_apr_2007.mov)Video ston_globe_29_apr_2007.mov –Polar Bears vs. Mosquitoes—who is doing better and why? –Phenotypic Plasticity vs. Natural Selection

Chapter 5 Collapse of societies based on drought –Effect of global warming on US drought conditions –Survive 3 to 5 days without water depending on temperature –Survive weeks without food Climate models P. 102 modelsmodels –climate cells other visualsclimate cells other visuals –NetLogo modeling programNetLogo modeling program Heat Forcing –2.5 w/m 2 (6 Christmas lights per square meter p. 107) –Delay in system (pros and cons) “Adaption to change” p. 111 Water vapor feedback

Chapter 6 Amphibious homes ( hibian-houses-rising-water/) hibian-houses-rising-water/ Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (DAI) –400ppm, 450pm, 500ppm? –CO2 levels near peak for last 3.5 billion years –Temp near peak in last 420 K years

Time Machines? In groups of 3-4 Identify different methods presented in the text so far for estimating past conditions What systems states in the past have been analyzed? What methods have been used?

Catastrophe: Time Machines How do we know about ancient atmosphere, temperatures, weather, fauna? Greenland Ice Cores (also Antarctic Ice Cores) –Atmosphere: trapped air bubbles –Temperature: isotopic composition of the ice (isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen different ratios depending on temperature)isotopic composition of the ice Lakebed sediment pollen samples –What kind of plants were growing at a particular location in the past Microscopic skeletons in rocks, ocean sediments, e.g. Foraminifera (“forams”)Foraminifera –Ratio of species indicator of temperature Ocean and lakebed sediments for wind blown substances (e.g. dolomite) Others?

Introduction to Kolbert, Ch. 7 Key Concepts: –Why C0 2 is a greenhouse gas and why we should care. The Planet Venus Carbon Cycle –Business as Usual (BAU). Pictures from: Gore Socolow –Stabilization Wedges: Explain the graph Note the definition of a wedge –How to make a Wedge: Policy + Economics + Technology (sometimes called Social Engineering).

Venus was Once a Twin of Earth “Venus Ruined by Greenhouse Gases” Atmosphere of super-dense C0 2 Average Surface Temp 457 deg C 876 deg F

Earth’s Carbon Cycle Natural & Human Sources Natural Sequestration Soil Forests Ocean

Where is the Carbon Coming From? Generating Electricity Transportation Deforestation Growing Food Manufacturing

Americans Generate 12,000 Pounds of CO 2 Each Year That’s 6 tons each… That’s 2 Gigatons (billion tons) per year for the USA… That’s 2 wedges each year (see below)… “In the USA, most of us begin generating CO 2 as soon as we get out of bed.”

Business As Usual (BAU) on Earth

Stabilization of CO 2 Emissions

Stabilization Wedges

15 Stabilization Wedges See printed descriptions of these for Group Exercise, also available at pages Socolow says… “Pick any 7 of these”

The Bad News Implementing wedges will only reduce our C0 2 EMISSIONS by 2055; it does not reduce the total CO2 in the atmosphere. TOTAL C0 2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE FOR THE NEAR FUTURE NO MATTER WHAT WE DO NOW. Under the current conditions… “There is for the most part no direct cost to emitting CO2…none of Socolow’s wedges are apt to be implemented.”