The Transition to a Life Beyond Oil Peak Oil, Climate Change and Transition Towns

Oil dependency Oil currently accounts for about 43% of the world’s total fuel consumption 95% of global energy used for transportation.

Oil is used for …… …. almost everything

Food production 95% of our food products require the use of oil, and the supply of food accounts for 21% of Britain’s energy use 3.5 litres of oil is needed to produce half a kilogram of steak Guardian 7 th April 2007

Natural Resources RENEWABLE RESOURCES: FARMING – FISHERIES – FORESTRY SUSTAINABLE IF RESPONSIBLY MANAGED RENEWAL TIME: YEARS TO DECADES NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES: COAL – OIL – GAS …….. STRICTLY FINITE, HOWEVER MANAGED RENEWAL TIME: MILLIONS OF YEARS

What is Peak Oil?

Two typical oil fields Forties field UK sector North Sea Prudhoe Bay, Alaska

Oil production for four countries USA Indonesia Russia Egypt

The North Sea Peak to Peak - 27 years Peaked in 1999

World discovery peaked 40 years ago

When is the global oil peak?

World Production Stalls World Supply 85.3 mb / day in mb/day to Oct 2007 World Demand 85.9 mb/day in 2007 projected to increase to 88 mb/day in 2008 Source: International Energy Agency Oct 2007

Prices rise

Oil producers (98)

Post peak oil producers (64)

Why is oil so important? How many men does it take to push a car?

A tank of petrol contains 8,000 human hours work! If you worked for 24 hrs/day, 52 weeks a year, 7 days a week that equates to about 4 years’ work. (If you imagine pushing a car 250 miles into a hurricane – at 70mph it would take a year for teams of 4 people to be constantly pushing the car to do the same work as one tank full) 95% of our transport is fuelled by oil. There is no replacement that is as convenient, high density, and safe.

Gas is also a non-renewable resource Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil

“Humanity is approaching an unprecedented crisis when not enough oil and gas will be produced to keep industrial civilisation running...” The opening paragraph of the Independent’s Environment Correspondent Geoffrey Lean on the IEA Report (The Independent July 10 th 07)

Common Symptoms Include Clammy Palms / Nausea/ Mild Palpitations Denial A Sense of Bewilderment and Unreality An Irrational Grasping at Unfeasible Solutions Fear Outbreaks of Nihilism / Survivalism. Exuberant Optimism. “I Always Told You So” Syndrome. Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil Awareness (Post-petroleum stress disorder)

CO2 levels over the past years

The need for an urgent response

Vehicle Transport – are we asking the right questions? Running the UK’s cars, buses and lorries on biodiesel needs 25.9 million hectares of arable land. UK has 5.7 million hectares of arable land. 800 million malnourished people in the world. From: Monbiot, G. (2006) Heat. How to Stop the Planet Burning. Penguin.

Hydrogen? Running the UK’s cars on hydrogen would necessitate; 67 Sizewell B nuclear power stations a solar array covering every inch of Norfolk and Derbyshire combined or a wind farm bigger than the entire southwest region of England. From “The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan

Relocalisation “…localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative” David Fleming

Responses to Peak Oil & Climate Change P O + C C = Systems Re-think Planned Relocalisation Energy Descent Pathways Local Resilience CLIMATE CHANGE Climate engineering Carbon capture and storage International emissions trading Climate adaptation Nuclear power PEAK OIL The need for an urgent response Burn everything!  relaxed drilling regulations  biofuels  tar sands and non-conventional oils Resource nationalism Resource Wars

1930’s Visions of the Future

We need to address our collective inability to vision the future we actually want….

One possible vision……

What might peak oil look like?

Food - Urban Gardens in Cuba Downtown Havana

The Modernized Agrarian - Cuba

Rooftop Gardening

Your Town in 2012? Edible roofsTree crops

The 4 Recognitions of the Transition Movement. 1.Life with less energy is inevitable and it is better to plan for it than be taken by surprise 2.We have lost the resilience to be able to cope with energy shocks 3.We have to act for ourselves and we have to act now 4.By unleashing the collective genius of the community we can design ways of living that are more enriching, satisfying and connected than the present.

The 12 Steps of Transition

Step 1: Form a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Outset.

Step 2: Raising awareness – talks and films

Step 3: Engaging with existing groups – Collaborate where possible Co-operation, not competition.

Working with Business Oil Vulnerability Analysis.Working with Business Oil Vulnerability Analysis. Working with Local LandownersWorking with Local Landowners

Step 4. The Official Unleashing “Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

Step 5: Form Working Groups. Up and Running in Totnes Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / Housing In formation; Education, Youth, Transport.

Step 6: Use Open Space Technology.

Step 7: Develop Visible Manifestations of the Project. “Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.

The Totnes Local Food Directory.

The Totnes Pound

Transition Tales

Step 8: Facilitate the Great Reskilling Skilling Up for Powerdown. Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning …

Using You Tube to Communicate Transition Town ideas.

Great Re-skilling Courses Wild Foods, natural building, seed saving, hand made paints, stove building, forest gardening, food growing, bread making... Wild Foods, natural building, seed saving, hand made paints, stove building, forest gardening, food growing, bread making...

Step 9: Build a Bridge to Local Government World Cafe on Peak Oil and Climate Change with Local Councillors Contributions to Local Development Framework.

Step 10: Honour the Elders

Step 11: Let It Go Where It Wants to Go. Solar Water Heater Challenge.Solar Water Heater Challenge. The Totnes Renewable Energy Supply Company (TRESCO)The Totnes Renewable Energy Supply Company (TRESCO) Lending Library.Lending Library. NISP workshopsNISP workshops Car Share ClubCar Share Club TTT International YouthTTT International Youth Music Festival. Music Festival.

Step 12: Create an Energy Descent Action Plan. Start with a vision and then backcast Start with a vision and then backcast Incorporate Transition Tales Incorporate Transition Tales Base it on current planning documents. Base it on current planning documents.

The Bro Ddyfi Energy Descent Action Plan 2008 – 2023? ? Bro Ddyfi 2023

‘Most great adventure stories share the same basic plot: a community faces a threat to its survival and the story is of how the characters respond.’ (Chris Johnstone, 2006)

Thank you - Diolch yn fawr Trawsnewid Bro Ddyfi Transition