January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders 1 Global Land Use and Food in a Finite world Workshop Transatlantic Academy, Washington, DC

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders 2  Foodsecurity  Competing claims on land  Resource efficiency  Smart policies

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 3

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 4 Number of hungry people (FAO)

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 5 More factors are key

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 6 Complex linkages

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 7 7

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 8 Competing claims in 1970 and 2010

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 9 Potential of cropland expansion

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 10 Biodiversity in 1970 and 2010

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 11 Global agricultural area will level off  Huge uncertainties –climate –diet –yield

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 12 Regional differences, change in crop area

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 13 Pressures on biodiversity up to 2050

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 14 The case of bioenergy  Important role in mitigation –However indirect emissions (fertilizer, transport, production)  Compete with other land use –Food prices –Biodiversity loss 1.Second generation bioenergy 2.Sustainability criteria 3.High yield versus extensive production 4.Cascading

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 15 Competing goals  Agriculture drives land use change  Land use change drives biodiversity loss

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 16 Effects and points of intervention

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 17 Effficiency forms a key factor in preserving biodiversity, while providing sufficient food for all  In order to provide sufficient food for all, more agricultural production is needed and  to meet the biodiversity goal, no further expansion of agricultural area allowed.  Four major issues –reduction of consumption –global management of land –growth of agricultural yields –the right price of food

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 18

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World November 2011 EU Resource Efficiency Perspectives in a Global Context 19

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 20

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World November 2011 EU Resource Efficiency Perspectives in a Global Context 21  Loss of MSA reduced by enhanced RE; but not stopped # ; #  Additonal losses (until 2050!) in some regions due to bio-energy for climate mitigation

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 22 Smart policies - general  No easy solutions –Age old problem of the commons –Major barriers  Not one size fits all –e.g. high yield versus extensive  Beware of trade-offs and look for synergy –e.g. bioenergy  Resource efficiency can bring you a long way but more is needed –Yield (water, fertilizer, management, seeds)  Reduce and reuse waste  Lifestyle changes have a huge potential

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 23 Major barriers to attain goals Food security  Lack of safety nets and redistributive policies  Economic growth performances in main food insecure regions  Appropriate entitlements of domestic farmers to access land and water Agricultural production  Perverse subsidies  Lack of knowledge Terrestrial biodiversity  Indirect drivers difficult to influence  Limited knowledge  Limited awareness  Ineffective management of protected areas

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 24 Smart policies - general  No easy solutions –Age old problem of the commons –Major barriers  Not one size fits all –e.g. high yield versus extensive  Beware of trade-offs and look for synergy –e.g. bioenergy  Resource efficiency can bring you a long way but more is needed –Yield (water, fertilizer, management, seeds)  Reduce and reuse waste  Lifestyle changes have a huge potential

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 25 Policy measures proper prices – proper governments  Correct market failures –property rights, waterpricing, valuing biodiversity  Correct government failures –perverse subsidies, trade barriers  Improve access to knowledge and markets –e.g. infrastructure  Use dynamic society

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 26 Market access in agricultural areas

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders Global Land use and Food in a Finite World 27 Policy measures proper prices – proper governments  Correct market failures –property rights, waterpricing, valuing biodiversity  Correct government failures –perverse subsidies, trade barriers  Improve access to knowledge and markets –e.g. infrastructure  Use dynamic society