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“New Learning” Barnard’s Inn Hall Holborn London EC1N 2HH Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) © Gresham College 2008 Mercers’ School Memorial Professor of Commerce Michael Mainelli Perfectly Unpredictable Why Forecasting Produces Useful Rubbish

© Gresham College 2008 Outline Fracticality Forecasting exercise Forecasting hurricanes Fair distribution Forecasting forecasting “Get a detailed grip on the big picture.” Chao Kli Ning

© Gresham College 2008 Digitising – Circa 1983

© Gresham College 2008 Not To Scale 1946 OS map London SE sheet 171, 1 inch = 1 mile, 1:63,360 1:625,000 (yes I know, samples of scale, not their scale on this slide!)

© Gresham College 2008 Don’t Generalise - From 491 To 18

© Gresham College 2008 Digitality

© Gresham College 2008 Engineers Like To Do It With Curves

© Gresham College 2008 Real versus Fake

© Gresham College 2008 Fracticality

© Gresham College 2008 Supremely Engineered Fakes?

© Gresham College 2008 Ulstermate Accuracy [Jodocus Hondius, ] [Andrew Dury, London, 1764]

© Gresham College 2008 Left or Right Exercise - 1

© Gresham College 2008 Left or Right Exercise? - 2

© Gresham College 2008 Left or Right Exercise - 3

© Gresham College 2008 Unusual Success 7/75/7

© Gresham College 2008 Scientific Method [

© Gresham College 2008 Phillips’ Economic Computer

© Gresham College 2008 Financial Hurricanes

© Gresham College 2008 Fair Distributions Poisson Erlang Normal Power Law

© Gresham College 2008 Fans of Charts

© Gresham College 2008 Dynamic Anomaly & Pattern Response

© Gresham College 2008 Prediction Markets Matter

© Gresham College 2008 Qualitative versus Quantitative

© Gresham College 2008 Model or Module?

© Gresham College 2008 Forecasting Probabilistic forecasting Dynamic anomaly & pattern response Predictive markets Qualitative versus quantitative “The model is the message”

© Gresham College 2008 Discussion 1. Does the qualitative versus qualitative forecasting distinction hold true? 2. Will increasing indirect impacts through information technology make self-fulfilling prophecies more likely? John William Waterhouse The Crystal Ball (1902, oil on canvas)

© Gresham College 2008 Perfectly Undpredictable: Why Forecasting Produces Useful Rubbish Thank you! “Get a big picture grip on the details.” Chao Kli Ning