Economic Outlook Orlando, FL December 20 th, 2011
U.S. Forecast Gone Wilde Oscar Wilde
U.S. Forecast Are We Experiencing a Dorian Gray Recovery? Are the Sins, Transgressions and Policy Missteps During, and in the Wake of, the Great Recession Appearing on the Visage of the U.S. Economy?
U.S. Forecast Lost Wealth and Languishing Labor Market A Downward force on consumer spending In 3 rd Quarter Wealth Contracted as Financial Asset Values Declines
U.S. Household Wealth (Trillions of $) Q1* 2011 Q3 Total Assets Financial Assets Home Equity Net Worth
U.S. Economic Outlook 2011 Q Q Q Q Q Q2 GDP % Change, Annual Rate Consumer Price Index % Change, Annual Rate Consumer Sentiment Consumption % Change, Annual Rate
U.S. Forecast
A look at the Florida housing data: October 2011 Snapshot
Realtor SalesMedian Sales Price Region or MSA October 2011 October 2010 %Chg October 2011 October 2010 %Chg STATEWIDE 13,75512,1459$131,200$136,600-4 Fort Myers-Cape Coral 9381,002-6$102,100$89,10015 Melbourne-Titusville- Palm Bay $106,800$97,6009 Lakeland-Winter Haven $104,300$94,2006 Pensacola $142,000$141,2001 Ocala $80,300$79,7001 Orlando 2,1361,82217$127,800$130,800-2 Florida Sales Report – October 2011 Single-Family, Existing Homes
Florida Sales Report – October 2011 Single-Family, Existing Homes Realtor SalesMedian Sales Price Region or MSA October 2011 October 2010 %Chg October 2011 October 2010 %Chg STATEWIDE 13,75512,1459$131,200$136,600-4 West Palm Beach- Boca Raton $184,900$221, Jacksonville $124,100$141, Miami $174,600$199, Gainesville $154,00$174, Tampa-St. Petersburg- Clearwater 2,2071,92315$123,800$137, Orlando 2,1361,82217$127,800$130,800-2
A look at the housing data: January 1994– October 2011
Florida Forecast In 2010 the recovery began, we finished some repairs, loaded up and pushed back from the gate and slowly taxied to the runway is our new runway Heavy crosswinds in 2011 necessitated the change As year progresses we will gradually pickup speed Job growth doesn’t takeoff until 2013 and 2014 Turbulence Demographics hinder recovery Housing market woes weigh Budget shortfalls: State & local government
Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4 th Quarter 2011 Forecast
Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4 th Quarter 2011 Forecast
Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4 th Quarter 2011 Forecast
Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4 th Quarter 2011 Forecast
Region Population Growth Average % ChgRank Florida Deltona 0.69 Gainesville 0.88 Jacksonville 1.43 Lakeland 1.43 Miami 1.34 Naples 1.82 Ocala 1.34 Orlando 1.91 Palm Bay 1.16 Pensacola 1.07 Tallahassee 1.34 Tampa Averages; Q Forecast
Region Employment Growth Average % ChgRank Florida Deltona 1.83 Gainesville 0.87 Jacksonville 1.92 Lakeland 1.26 Miami 1.64 Naples 1.64 Ocala 1.83 Orlando 2.01 Palm Bay 0.79 Pensacola 1.35 Tallahassee 0.68 Tampa Averages; Q Forecast
Orlando Metro Forecast
Averages; Q Forecast ORLANDO Sector % Average Annual Growth Professional & Business Services 3.7 Leisure & Hospitality2.8 Education-Health Services2.7 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 1.9 Manufacturing1.3 Construction & Mining1.3 Other Services0.8 Information0.8 Financial0.5 State & Local Government0.4 Federal Government-3.1
Sean M. Snaith Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness (407) Thank you