Sjoerd Schenau Developing new statistics for climate change analysis

Content Organisational setting Climate change statistics in the Netherlands New statistics for climate change  Footprint analysis Conclusions 2

Organisational setting 3 Environmental Statistics SEEA System of Environmental- Economic Accounting Emission Register (70 experts from 10 institutes, including Statistics Netherlands) Statistics Netherlands (CBS) Dissemination  Official statistics at  Emission data at  Policy indicators at Environmental Data Compendium, e.g., indicatoren/en0165-Greenhouse-gas- emissions.html?i= indicatoren/en0165-Greenhouse-gas- emissions.html?i=41-205

New statistics for climate change Quarterly CO 2 emissions CO 2 emission permits Mitigation expenditure Carbon footprint 4

New statistics for climate change Quarterly CO 2 emissions CO 2 emission permits Mitigation expenditure Carbon footprint 5 Changes in CO2 emissions, second quarter of 2015 Source data: Monthly energy data National accounts data Other

New statistics for climate change Quarterly CO 2 emissions CO 2 emission permits Mitigation expenditure Carbon footprint 6 Mton CO 2 Emission permit database Dutch emission authority

New statistics for climate change Quarterly CO 2 emissions CO 2 emission permits Mitigation expenditure Carbon footprint 7 Mitigation expenditure government, percentage of GDP Government reports Government statistics Environmental expenditure accounts More info: NL/menu/themas/natuur- milieu/publicaties/milieurekening en/publicaties/archief/2012/envir onmental-accounts pub.htm

New statistics for climate change Quarterly CO 2 emissions CO 2 emission permits Mitigation expenditure Carbon footprint 8 Consumption and production based CO 2 emissions, 2009 More info: milieu/publicaties/milieurekeningen/publicaties/a rchief/2013/2012-environmental-accounts-of-the- netherlands-2011-pub.htm

Footprint analysis Footprints are increasingly based on IO/SEEA combinations Variety of Multi-regional input-output models (MRIO) Footprint estimates vary significantly Question: What role should NSI’s play in footprint analysis? Answer? Single-country National Accounts Consistent (SNAC) footprint 9

Statistical community Many different NSI’s and international organisations active in footprint calculations There is wide range of methods being used NSIs often use simpler models Mostly carbon footprint Clear interest in additional breakdowns Household characteristics such as income Dissemination practices of the institutes show that the results are not always presented as “official statistics” 10

Overview of MRIO databases that are currently publically available GTAPEXIOBASEWIODEora Acronym Global Trade Analysis Project EXIOPOL: Externality data and input-output tools for policy analysis World Input-Output Database- Institute Purdue University EXIOBASE: FP6 project (EXIOPOL) led by FEEM Database created by NTNU, TNO, SERI, CML FP7 project lead by the University of Groningen University of Sydney Years 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2001, 2004, 2007 (years are not comparable) Prices of previous year ­- Countries/ Regions (depends on year) 43 (27 EU, 16 non-EU) (95% of the global GDP) 40 (27 EU and 12 non-EU) (80% of world GDP in 2006) 187 Number of industries 57 industries130 industries35 industries industries Environmental data Greenhouse gases (CO2, NO2, CH4) Energy use Land use (split agro- ecological zone) Emissions (56) Materials (96) Land use (15) Water use (14) Energy use / several energy carriers Water consumption Land use Emissions of greenhouse gases Air pollutants Resource use/extraction Generation and treatment of various types of waste Greenhouse gases Air pollution Water use Ecological Footprint 11

Academic work – Difference between MRIOs: ‐ Aggregation (industries and/or countries) ‐ Construction method: IO based, SUT based, or trade based ‐ Assumptions RoW or ITMs ‐ Emission data (modeled or not) – Aim of MRIOs ‐ Information about global developments ‐ No claim to be 100% correct at national level ‐ Focus on consistent method (rather than best country data) 12

Carbon footprints for the Netherlands from various MRIO databases 13 Data provided by Glen Peters and Nori Yamano

Year on year change in the DutchCarbon footprint: WIOD and EORA 14

Reconciling academic and statistical work – Growing policy interest in footprints, but no clear answers – MRIOs have set the standard, but outside NSIs capabilities Labour intensive Assumptions – MRIOs vs. official statistics Always inconsistent due to integration/balancing required: Trade asymmetries – Can we reconcile statistical and academic work in area of footprint analysis? 15

A SNAC footprint – Produce a footprint, based on MRIO, that is consistent to official statistics of the Netherlands ‐ Single-country National Accounts consistent (SNAC) – Main approach: “Adjust WIOD to be consistent to Dutch data” – Why WIOD? ‐ Transparancy ‐ Time series availibility – Gain insight why results could be so different 16

SNAC-Method for the Netherlands – Follow WIOD procedure, but - with impoved data Trade in goods: re‐exports microdata Trade in services: Confidential data Expand SUT from 35 to 72 industries (+official valuation layers) Official SEEA accounts - …..and keeping the Dutch data fixed 17

Results: SNAC vs. WIOD 18 Overall difference in footprint: 4%  Mainly due to lower foreign emissions  NL becomes net exporter of emissions 2009 SNAC-footprintWIOD MtCO 2 % Total Footprint % Domestic indirect emissions % Domestic direct emissions 40395% Total Domestic % Total Foreign % Resident emissions 205

Carbon footprint per capita including various estimates for the Netherlands 19 Source: CBS 2013

Import emissions allocated to country of origin,

Indirect carbon footprint (2009) allocated to consumption categories 21

Conclusions 1.MRIOs are produced for global questions while a SNAC footprint is more relevant for national policy makers 2.SNAC makes a difference! (at least for the Netherlands) 3.Need for IO and SEEA data 4.Need for enhanced cooperation ‐ Between statistical offices ‐ Between MRIO producers ‐ Statistical and academic community 22