INCT para Mudanças Climáticas The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research

The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research Competitive Call for Proposals for National Institutes of S&T (INCT): US$ 250 M; 123 INCTs selected The National Institute for Climate Change Research: - 26 research projects covering the science of climate change, impact-adaptation-vulnerability studies, and mitigation; technological developments in climate modeling and geosensors - 90 research groups in Brazil and 8 countries; 400 researchers and students involved - US$ 3.5 M for 3 years

Sub-project “Climate Change and Amazonia” A.2

The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research Sub-project “Climate Change and Amazonia” To investigate the multi-scale interactions associated to the natural dynamic forcing and detection of changes due to climate and anthropogenic perturbations, especially those associated with land use and change processes. To perform numerical studies of the role that biomass burning emissions and land use and land cover changes have on the hydrological cycle, energy balance, and dynamic and thermodynamic properties of the boundary layer of South American continent. Investigate the role of nutrients, in particular P and N in the development and sustainability of the Amazonian ecosystem. Quantify the carbon balance in Amazonia, and the controlling forcings in this balance. Quantify the role of Amazonian emissions in the global budget of greenhouse gases specially CO2, CH4 e N2O.

The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research Sub-project “Climate Change and Amazonia” The climate impacts of aerosol particles Investigate the processes regulating the atmospheric aerosol particles concentrations and cloud condensation nuclei regarding their sources, chemical composition, size distribution, and the direct and indirect radiative effects; Work to reduce uncertainty of the global effects of aerosols through field measurements and modelling approach.

The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research Sub-project “ Climate Change and Amazonia” Planetary boundary layer properties in Amazonia for Forest and Deforested areas Investigate and characterize the dynamic behavior of the planetary boundary layer on daytime and nighttime in forested regions and deforested areas.

The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research Sub-project “Climate Change and Amazonia” Regional chemical dynamic meteorological modeling Investigate how Amazon forest surface characteristics alter the fluxes of water vapor, gases and aerosols, and how these changes feedback on the basic system functioning;

The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research Sub-project “Climate Change and Amazonia” Aquatic Biogeochemistry in Amazonia Evaluate the impact on the hydrological cycle of different future scenarios of climate change; Investigate how the conversion of Forest to pasture or plantations alter the water flow to small Rivers and catchments and influence water quality in small and medium size water basins;

The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research Sub-project “Climate Change and Amazonia” The human health effects of large scale biomass burning smoke Establish sustainability indicators and vulnerabilities for the integrated management of health and the environment in Amazonia, thought the investigation of biomass burning emissions impacts on human heath in Amazonia; Definition of a safe level for exposure to biomass burning emissions, and quantification of health effects in order to better design of public policies.

Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change Research – “Rede CLIMA”

Established at the end of 2007 by the Ministry of S&T to expand the knowledge basis on climate change, impacts, adaptation, vulnerabilty and mitigation Main Goal: increase Brazil’s capacity to cope with the challenges of global environmental change It will articulate over 50 research groups in Brazil covering a broad range of interdisciplinary research on all dimensions of global environmental change Budget: US$ 15 million over 3 years to start implementation It involves initially 10 interconnected themes

Themes of “Rede CLIMA” with Focal Points Water Resources UFPE, Recife Regional Development UnB, Brasília Coastal Zones FURG, Rio Grande Biodiversity and Ecossistems MPEG, Belém Cities and Industry Unicamp, Campinas Agriculture EMBRAPA, Campinas Renewable Energy COPPE / UFRJ, RJ Human Health Fiocruz, RJ Economy of Climate Change USP, São Paulo Climate Modeling INPE

Amazonia Cities and Industry Agriculture Coastal Zones Economy of Climate Change Renewable Energy Human Health Climate Modeling Water Resources Biodiversity and Ecossistems Regional Development All Themes of “Rede CLIMA” apply to Amazonian Research

New Rede CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputer for Climate Change Research Sustained Throughput 15 Tflop/s Main Memory20 TBytes Primary Storage400 TBytes Aquisition Installations 2008 First half of 2009 Total budgetUS$ 22.5 M... This new system will be the 6 th most powerful in the world in climate change research by mid-2009 It will make it possible to run global climate model simulations at high spatial resolutions to grid sizes of 10 km ! FNDCT - US$ 15 M FAPESP - US$ 7.5M

Collective effort to develop the Brazilian Climate System Model Mid 2000s Atmosphere Land Surface Ocean & Sea-Ice Sulphate Aerosol Non-sulphate Dynamic Vegetation Atmospheric Chemistry Aerosol Carbon Cycle Atmosphere Land Surface Ocean & Sea-Ice Sulphate Aerosol Non-sulphate Aerosol Carbon Cycle Atmosphere Land Surface Ocean & Sea-Ice Sulphate Aerosol Atmosphere Land Surface Ocean & Sea-Ice Atmosphere Land Surface Atmosphere Around 2000Late 1990sEarly 1990sMid-1980sMid-1970s The Climate System

Development of a Global Climate System Model Two-pronged approach: (i) full use of experience of CPTEC and (ii) collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad –Take CPTEC Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model as the structuring building block –Add components: dynamic vegetation with carbon cycle; ocean carbon cycle; enhanced sea ice and pack ice; GHG and aerosols; atmospheric chemistry, etc. –5 year project with engagement of many modeling groups in Brazil –Capacity development in many areas

Brazil’s participation in IPCC AR5 global climate model simulations International collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad: Hadley Centre and NCAR-ORNL, and others likely Design of simulations to add value to IPCC AR5 ensembles: higher ensemble sizes, higher resolution, different modules and/or physics, chemistry, vegetation, etc. Simulations to be carried out in Rede CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputing Facility at INPE (likely from last quarter of 2009 through the fist quarter of 2011) Open data policy access for all simulations