Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies to Assess Socio-Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters, October, 2005 Methodology for Rapid Assessment of Socio- Economic Impacts of Drought Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources Dr. Muhammad Akram Kahlown Chairman

Resource Base (Water) Surface Water: 175 Bm 3 Total Available Storage: 20 Bm 3 Sedimentation in Storage: 0.2 Bm 3 Canal Diversions: 130 Bm 3 Groundwater Availability: 82 Bm 3 Groundwater Withdrawal: 62 Bm 3 Irrigated Area: 18 Mha Available for Additional Cultivation: 12 Mha

Year 2001 Year 2004 Year 2011 Water Availability at Farm gate: Surface water Surface water Groundwater Groundwater Total Total * Water Requirement: Irrigation Other Uses Total ** **11220 Shortfall5%11%21% In 2025 Shortfall up to 50% (PWP, 2000) * Watercourse improvement (7.39 Bm 3 ), Raising Mangla (3.82 Bm 3 ), Kurram Tangi Dam (1.48 Bm 3 ), Small Dams (0.37 Bm 3 ), Gomal Zam (1.4 Bm 3 ), Mirani (0.37 Bm 3 ) ** Population Growth 2.6 to 1.9, increased food requirements and land reclamation (Bm 3 ) Water Availability and Demands

Drought Hit Areas in Pakistan CharacteristicBalochistanSindh Geographical Area (Mha) Cultivated Area (Mha) Population (million) Annual Rainfall (mm) AgricultureRainfedIrrigated

ProvinceCitiesPeriodFrequency Punjab Lahore Jhelum Rawalpindi Murree NWFP Peshawar Balakot Sindh Nawabshah Jacobabad Badin Chhor Balochistan Sibbi Nokundi Dalbadin Panjgur Ormara Kalat Droughts in Pakistan

 Livestock herds  Cultivation of Orchards  Growing of Agricultural Crops Major Socio-Economic Activities in Drought Hit Areas

Animal Species Number of Heads (million) Reduction (%) 1996 Census 2002 Census Cattle Sheep Goat Buffalos Camel Horses Mules Donkey Total Livestock Production in Balochistan

Cropped Area Reduction in Balochistan Year Area Reduction (%) WheatBarleySorghum Base Year:

Crops Production Reduction in Balochistan Year Production Reduction (%) WheatBarleySorghum Base Year:

Orchards Yield Reduction in Balochistan Year Yield Reduction (%) AppleApricotAlmond Base Year:

Impact on Cropped Area in Sindh Year Impact (%) WheatSugarcaneRice Base Year:

Impact on Crops Yield in Sindh Year Impact (%) WheatSugarcaneRice Base Year:

 Agricultural production ready to be harvested Crops Crops Orchards Orchards Vegetables Vegetables  Losses in animal stock Livestock Livestock Poultry Poultry  Losses to rangelands  Reduced yields in future crops  Not planting of future crops  Losses to water sources  Loss of employment in various sectors (agriculture, industrial and tourism) Economic Sector Drought Damages

 Food cost and temporary shelter for affectees during migration  Destruction and repair costs of housing appliances  Losses of “Backyard economy” assets: Micro and small enterprises (cottage industry) Micro and small enterprises (cottage industry) Small species cattle Small species cattle Vegetable gardens Vegetable gardens Informally raised crops Informally raised crops  Repair of damaged housing, schooling and health infrastructure  Rehabilitation costs of communication and water supply systems Social Sector Drought Damages

 Identify organizations and personnel active in the affected area  Identify the priority zones through Preliminary reports Preliminary reports Meteorological data Meteorological data Remote sensing or aerial photography Remote sensing or aerial photography Interviews of persons working in the areas Interviews of persons working in the areas  Determine the areas to be assessed Procedure for Rapid Impact Assessment of Drought Continued …………..

 Conduct the drought assessment through: An over flight of the project area An over flight of the project area Ground surveys to collect data on extent of drought and pattern of damages Ground surveys to collect data on extent of drought and pattern of damages Series of interviews of the affectees, relief personnel, public officials, R&D organizations, sellers of farm implements, fertilizers and seeds, etc. Series of interviews of the affectees, relief personnel, public officials, R&D organizations, sellers of farm implements, fertilizers and seeds, etc. Procedure for Rapid Impact Assessment of Drought Continued …………..

 Conduct random sampling of health and nutritional status including: Mortality Mortality Morbidity Morbidity Pregnant and lactating women Pregnant and lactating women Children under five Children under five Small farmers Small farmers Families of herdsmen Families of herdsmen Low income village dwellers Low income village dwellers  Conduct post-field assessment interviews Procedure for Rapid Impact Assessment of Drought

 Development of national drought policy  Establishment of national climate monitoring system  Post drought audits of response efforts  Establishment of regional drought forums  Development of national drought mitigation plans Strategies to Reduce Drought Risk

 Monitoring activities  Impact assessment efforts  Mitigation measures  R&D endeavors Drought Management in Pakistan

 Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)  Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)  Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authorities (PIDAs)  District governments Agencies Involved in Drought Monitoring

 Establishment of a drought and environmental monitoring center (DEMC): Four provincial meteorological centers  Exploration of drought characteristics like intensity, magnitude and extent (spatial and temporal)  Issuance of drought forecasts and warnings to various user agencies  Although forecasting accuracy is satisfactory, warning system is weak and underdeveloped  The information does not reach the people in rural areas who are likely to be affected by drought Role of PMD in Drought Monitoring

 Collection & analyses of data on the following parameters to determine the impacts of climatic changes: Rivers flowsRivers flows Storage reservoirs levelsStorage reservoirs levels Groundwater levelsGroundwater levels  Dissemination of information to concerned federal/provincial agencies Role of WAPDA in Drought Monitoring

 Monitoring of canal diversions and distributing water within the canal network  Management of canal supplies through the following interventions: Prioritize the canal water allocations on groundwater quality basis Prioritize the canal water allocations on groundwater quality basis Reallocate water supplies during critical crop stages Reallocate water supplies during critical crop stages Operate canals on revised rotations Operate canals on revised rotations Role of PIDAs in Drought Monitoring

 Coordination of information with provincial administration on unusual changes in water availability provided by the following line departments: Agriculture Agriculture Livestock Livestock Public health Public health Revenue Revenue Etc. Etc. Role of District Govts. In Drought Monitoring

No single institution is responsible for drought monitoring in the country Limitation in Drought Monitoring

 Promulgation of National Calamity Act, 1958  Establishment of Federal Level Institutions Emergency Relief Cell Emergency Relief Cell Federal Drought Emergency Relief and Assistance (DERA) Unit Federal Drought Emergency Relief and Assistance (DERA) Unit  Establishment of Provincial Level Institutions Relief Commission Office Relief Commission Office Drought Crisis Control Centre Drought Crisis Control Centre Drought Management Committees Drought Management Committees DERA Unit DERA Unit Drought Mitigation Measures in Pakistan

 Lack of reliable and authentic drought data  Absence of drought mitigation infrastructure and strategy  Lack of National Drought Policy  Complexity of drought assessment in various sectors  Non-existence of drought monitoring and assessment criteria Hindrances in Drought Impact Assessment

 Formulation of a National Drought Policy/Plan  Implementation of the National Drought Policy  Initiation of R&D Program for drought management  Adoption of criteria for drought impact assessment:  vulnerability indicators  economic threshold  income of people Recommendations

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