Astro2010 Response MPS/AST COV 7 February, 2011 Jim Ulvestad

2 Budget Outlook & Expectations Actual budget for FY 2011 (started in October 2010) is presently unknown Actual budget for FY 2011 (started in October 2010) is presently unknown FY 2012 budget request released next week FY 2012 budget request released next week Given the general and scientific budget priorities in the US, it is likely that AST can support large fraction of Astro2010 only if we make significant reductions in current programs Given the general and scientific budget priorities in the US, it is likely that AST can support large fraction of Astro2010 only if we make significant reductions in current programs Aiming for substantive portfolio review, focused on strategic implementation of Astro2010 recommendations, in 2011/12 Aiming for substantive portfolio review, focused on strategic implementation of Astro2010 recommendations, in 2011/12 7 February 2011 AST COV-Astro2010

NSF Large Project Funding Funding is in separate (non-AST) line (MREFC), determined by NSF-wide strategy Funding is in separate (non-AST) line (MREFC), determined by NSF-wide strategy There is no funding wedge available in MREFC until at least 2014 There is no funding wedge available in MREFC until at least 2014 Highly unlikely to have two astronomy construction projects in MREFC with major funding occurring simultaneously Highly unlikely to have two astronomy construction projects in MREFC with major funding occurring simultaneously Operations funding after construction must come directly from the baseline AST budget Operations funding after construction must come directly from the baseline AST budget 7 February AST COV-Astro2010

Long-Term MREFC Funding 7 February AST COV-Astro2010 Typical annual MREFC funding is ~$200M Typical annual MREFC funding is ~$200M At that level, no significant wedge begins to appear until FY14-FY15 At that level, no significant wedge begins to appear until FY14-FY15 From FY11 NSF request

Astro2010 Ground Recommendations Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST)—Large, MREFC Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST)—Large, MREFC Mid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP)—Large, non-MREFC Mid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP)—Large, non-MREFC ~30% share of CCAT—Medium ~30% share of CCAT—Medium ~$20M augmentation to existing and small programs—Small ~$20M augmentation to existing and small programs—Small 25% federal investment in one Giant Segmented Mirror (GSMT) candidate—Large, MREFC 25% federal investment in one Giant Segmented Mirror (GSMT) candidate—Large, MREFC 25% federal share in Atmospheric Cerenkov Telescope Array (ACTA)—Large, non-MREFC 25% federal share in Atmospheric Cerenkov Telescope Array (ACTA)—Large, non-MREFC Large, medium, and small programs interleaved roughly according to priority and time sequence given by Astro2010 in the case when the AST budget does not follow a doubling path Large, medium, and small programs interleaved roughly according to priority and time sequence given by Astro2010 in the case when the AST budget does not follow a doubling path 7 February AST COV-Astro2010

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope - LSST Vital Statistics: 8.4 meter primary mirror 3.3 gigapixel digital camera 3.5 deg field of view 30 terabytes of data nightly Comprehensive operations simulator Complete coverage of the visible sky twice per week Nominal 10-yr lifetime To be located on Cerro Pachon, Chile Broad science drivers from solar system to the structure of the universe. Multiple transients/second every night! 7 February AST COV-Astro2010

Large Synoptic Survey Telescope Not ‘just another telescope’, but a truly unique discovery engine Not ‘just another telescope’, but a truly unique discovery engine US world leadership; nobody else is doing this US world leadership; nobody else is doing this Transformative in the science Transformative in the science New parameter space always leads to surprises – LSST opens the time domain New parameter space always leads to surprises – LSST opens the time domain Myriad rapidly delivered alerts – follow-up critical Myriad rapidly delivered alerts – follow-up critical Superb image quality with rigorously controlled systematics Superb image quality with rigorously controlled systematics Massive data – data enabled science – new ways of doing astronomy Massive data – data enabled science – new ways of doing astronomy Transformative in education & outreach Transformative in education & outreach Widespread immediate access Widespread immediate access An alert stream for everyone An alert stream for everyone Citizen science for tackling massive datasets Citizen science for tackling massive datasets Transformative in data enabled science and cyberinfrastructure Transformative in data enabled science and cyberinfrastructure Massive amounts of data Massive amounts of data Near-real-time processing Near-real-time processing Fast dissemination to multiple data access centers Fast dissemination to multiple data access centers 7 February AST COV-Astro2010

Large Synoptic Survey Telescope Big project (~$1m per week); many government offices; accountability for public funds => lots of paperwork Big project (~$1m per week); many government offices; accountability for public funds => lots of paperwork NSF is working actively with DOE to synchronize schedules and coordinate efforts on the telescope and on the camera NSF is working actively with DOE to synchronize schedules and coordinate efforts on the telescope and on the camera Design & Development is funded through FY 2012 from an NSF award and from DOE headquarters and laboratory support Design & Development is funded through FY 2012 from an NSF award and from DOE headquarters and laboratory support NSF process (MREFC) laid down in the Large Facilities Manual NSF process (MREFC) laid down in the Large Facilities Manual We are working through the approval chain to proceed along the MREFC path We are working through the approval chain to proceed along the MREFC path The earliest budget by which we can get National Science Board approval and the NSF Director’s agreement to request funding is FY 2014 The earliest budget by which we can get National Science Board approval and the NSF Director’s agreement to request funding is FY 2014 Astronomy is a small piece of the NSF Astronomy is a small piece of the NSF LSST may be the top astronomy project, but keeping it a priority in the context of every proposed facility across every field NSF supports takes continuous attention LSST may be the top astronomy project, but keeping it a priority in the context of every proposed facility across every field NSF supports takes continuous attention LSST was the Astro2010 top priority and we are working aggressively to move it forward, including assigning a dedicated program officer LSST was the Astro2010 top priority and we are working aggressively to move it forward, including assigning a dedicated program officer 7 February AST COV-Astro2010

AST Mid-Scale: Background Problem: NSF has no clear mechanism for funding projects above MRI and below MREFC ($4-135M) Problem: NSF has no clear mechanism for funding projects above MRI and below MREFC ($4-135M) In the past, AST has accepted and funded mid-scale proposals on a one-off basis, not part of a competition In the past, AST has accepted and funded mid-scale proposals on a one-off basis, not part of a competition Typical proposal is $5-15M over ~5 yrs Typical proposal is $5-15M over ~5 yrs Awards based on ad hoc reviews/reverse site visit panels, and availability of funds Awards based on ad hoc reviews/reverse site visit panels, and availability of funds No stable funding line established No stable funding line established Past AST total Mid-Scale investment ~$15-20M/yr (highly leveraged, including MREFC Design & Development) Past AST total Mid-Scale investment ~$15-20M/yr (highly leveraged, including MREFC Design & Development) 7 February AST COV-Astro2010

Mid-Scale in Astro 2010 Second priority: Mid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP) Second priority: Mid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP) Recommended ramp up to $40M/yr over decade Recommended ramp up to $40M/yr over decade Should be a competed program Should be a competed program A2010 received 29 white papers for mid-scale projects, and mentioned 8 as “compelling” : A2010 received 29 white papers for mid-scale projects, and mentioned 8 as “compelling” : BIGBOSS; CMB Project(s); ExoPlanet initiatives; FASR; HAWC; HERA; Adaptive Optics; NanoGRAV BIGBOSS; CMB Project(s); ExoPlanet initiatives; FASR; HAWC; HERA; Adaptive Optics; NanoGRAV Also CCAT, recommended to go first and not be competed. Also CCAT, recommended to go first and not be competed. 25m submillimeter telescope 25m submillimeter telescope Currently in D&D phase Currently in D&D phase NSF share ~$37M of $140M construction cost NSF share ~$37M of $140M construction cost COV2008 recommended against MSIP at that time COV2008 recommended against MSIP at that time 7 February AST COV-Astro2010

Mid-Scale: Current Status In Blue (“Old”): VERITAS, SDSS, QUIET, ACT(Pol), MWA, PAPER, DESDM, POLARBEAR, VAO, HETDEX, SKA/GSMT/LSST D&D In Blue (“Old”): VERITAS, SDSS, QUIET, ACT(Pol), MWA, PAPER, DESDM, POLARBEAR, VAO, HETDEX, SKA/GSMT/LSST D&D In Red (“New”): MWA & PAPER Buildout, DESDM Ops, GSMT D&D, LSST bridge, CCAT (= not total demand, includes 1/8 of A2010 “compelling” projects) In Red (“New”): MWA & PAPER Buildout, DESDM Ops, GSMT D&D, LSST bridge, CCAT (= not total demand, includes 1/8 of A2010 “compelling” projects) 7 February AST COV-Astro2010

Funding Prospects Typical spending on mid-scale projects and development of future large facilities, is ~ $20M, vs A2010 $40M Typical spending on mid-scale projects and development of future large facilities, is ~ $20M, vs A2010 $40M If Facilities and Grants are off limits (near term), then If Facilities and Grants are off limits (near term), then Any increase must come from AST budget growth, Any increase must come from AST budget growth, Or, from re-programming from programs such as the following (total ~ $21M): Or, from re-programming from programs such as the following (total ~ $21M): TSIP (~$5M) TSIP (~$5M) UROs (~$10M) UROs (~$10M) ReSTAR (~$3M) ReSTAR (~$3M) Gemini Instr (~$3M) Gemini Instr (~$3M) 7 February AST COV-Astro2010

Next Steps Currently no new funds to add to Mid-Scale line Currently no new funds to add to Mid-Scale line Budget re-arrangement could occur in a general Portfolio Review (2012?), but this is zero sum, and takes time to execute Budget re-arrangement could occur in a general Portfolio Review (2012?), but this is zero sum, and takes time to execute NSF-wide Mid-Scale program being discussed, but unlikely before 2013 (and not geared to AST needs) NSF-wide Mid-Scale program being discussed, but unlikely before 2013 (and not geared to AST needs) Funding wedge for competition could open up from completion of current programs, but Funding wedge for competition could open up from completion of current programs, but would take time would take time implies no new starts for several years implies no new starts for several years Conclusion: Probably no competition before at earliest Conclusion: Probably no competition before at earliest 7 February AST COV-Astro2010

14GSMT Two U.S. and one European projects Two U.S. and one European projects Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) - Chile Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) - Chile Thirty-Meter Telescope (TMT) - Hawaii Thirty-Meter Telescope (TMT) - Hawaii European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) - Chile European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) - Chile Astro2010 recommendation Astro2010 recommendation Seek 25% public share in one project Seek 25% public share in one project Share would come from investment in design/development, construction (MREFC), instrumentation, or operations Share would come from investment in design/development, construction (MREFC), instrumentation, or operations Undertake “immediate” evaluation of projects Undertake “immediate” evaluation of projects AST plan AST plan Receive proposals for design/development Receive proposals for design/development Conduct programmatic review Conduct programmatic review Work towards possible MREFC funding in 2017(+) Work towards possible MREFC funding in 2017(+) 7 February 2011 AST COV-Astro2010

15GSMT Review criteria: select project with … Review criteria: select project with … Significant opportunities for wider U.S. community Significant opportunities for wider U.S. community Best cost/risk/impact tradeoff for U.S. government Best cost/risk/impact tradeoff for U.S. government Review elements Review elements Scientific impact of the telescope / proposed instruments Scientific impact of the telescope / proposed instruments Nature of a public share, benefits to the community Nature of a public share, benefits to the community Technical feasibility and soundness of design Technical feasibility and soundness of design Cost/technical risk assessment and mitigation strategy Cost/technical risk assessment and mitigation strategy Maturity of financial and administrative structures Maturity of financial and administrative structures Commitment to education, diversity, and public outreach Commitment to education, diversity, and public outreach Target timeline Target timeline Letters of intent: late July, 2011 Letters of intent: late July, 2011 Proposals due: late September, 2011 Proposals due: late September, 2011 Decisions announced in early 2012 Decisions announced in early February 2011 AST COV-Astro2010

Small Programs $8M (17%) increase in AAG $8M (17%) increase in AAG $5M (50%) increase in ATI. $5M (50%) increase in ATI. $2M increase (10%) in Gemini contribution $2M increase (10%) in Gemini contribution UK withdrawal after 2012 UK withdrawal after 2012 $1.5-2M increase in Telescope Systems Instrumentation $1.5-2M increase in Telescope Systems Instrumentation $2.5M for Theory & Computation Networks $2.5M for Theory & Computation Networks These all depend on a steadily increasing budget, so AST can make no commitments at this time 7 February AST COV-Astro2010

OIR System Astro2010: Re-adjust balance of current vs. future facilities Astro2010: Re-adjust balance of current vs. future facilities This will require an overall AST portfolio review This will require an overall AST portfolio review Astro2010: Restructure Gemini, acquire increased Gemini share, and consider Gemini/NOAO consolidation Astro2010: Restructure Gemini, acquire increased Gemini share, and consider Gemini/NOAO consolidation Share will increase from 50% to ~63% after 2012 because of UK withdrawal (increase of ~50 nights/year) Share will increase from 50% to ~63% after 2012 because of UK withdrawal (increase of ~50 nights/year) New structure of international partnership is under active discussion, as is Gemini/NOAO consolidation New structure of international partnership is under active discussion, as is Gemini/NOAO consolidation The two are not easily decoupled, since NOAO is a US entity, but Gemini is a multi-lateral international observatory The two are not easily decoupled, since NOAO is a US entity, but Gemini is a multi-lateral international observatory International Gemini board has formed tiger team to consider and recommend new governance options International Gemini board has formed tiger team to consider and recommend new governance options ESO reformulation may have significant impact ESO reformulation may have significant impact 7 February AST COV-Astro2010

Other Recommendations and Conclusions US participation in SKA construction not possible this decade in realistic budget scenarios US participation in SKA construction not possible this decade in realistic budget scenarios Complete next senior review before mid-decade Complete next senior review before mid-decade Fund lab astrophysics at or above previous levels Fund lab astrophysics at or above previous levels Refocus efforts on attracting members of underrepresented minorities to the field Refocus efforts on attracting members of underrepresented minorities to the field Continue work to promote gender equity Continue work to promote gender equity Expose students to wide variety of career opportunities Expose students to wide variety of career opportunities Budget and plan for acquisition, processing, archiving, access and long-term curation of data Budget and plan for acquisition, processing, archiving, access and long-term curation of data Develop/support multidisciplinary solar research Develop/support multidisciplinary solar research Form decadal survey advisory committee (charge overlaps AAAC) Form decadal survey advisory committee (charge overlaps AAAC) 7 February AST COV-Astro2010

General Strategic Approach Probability is high that positive response to a significant set of the Astro2010 recommendations will require major re- thinking of the overall AST portfolio Probability is high that positive response to a significant set of the Astro2010 recommendations will require major re- thinking of the overall AST portfolio Plan at present is to execute a strategic review of the entire AST portfolio, to outline the balance and set of programs desirable in the 2015, 2020, and 2025 time frames Plan at present is to execute a strategic review of the entire AST portfolio, to outline the balance and set of programs desirable in the 2015, 2020, and 2025 time frames Exact mechanism for the review is under discussion, but review will be expected to adhere to realistic budget scenarios and timescales for program changes Exact mechanism for the review is under discussion, but review will be expected to adhere to realistic budget scenarios and timescales for program changes Science priorities of Astro2010 will play an important role Science priorities of Astro2010 will play an important role All programs within AST will be part of the review All programs within AST will be part of the review Review completion expected in CY 2012 Review completion expected in CY February AST COV-Astro2010