Baseline Area Analysis Presentation to Steering Group May 20

Presentation Structure Starting point Approach Assessment framework and measures Some findings

Starting Point The Ferries Review is to: "identify where changes and improvements to ferry services can enable the creation of dynamic and growing economies for our island and remote rural communities.” This requires identification of specific islands/mainland areas with economies with such potential

Approach

TABLE 1.1: STRAND A: INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY AND COMPETITIVENESS: MEASURES RefMeasure Description BasisMeasureData Sources Data Issues/Availability A1Companies of Scale HIE Operating Plan-secure businesses of greater scale  Number of HIE key account companies  % of business units with 25+ employees  HIE  ABI-2007  HIE analysis limited geographically due to data confidentiality  ABI analysis limited to higher geographies due to data confidentiality. No trend analysis due to changes in survey method A2Presence of Key Sectors GES: Supportive Business Environment-policy focus on a number of key sectors with high growth potential % of island/area employment in each of the six key sectors: * Creative Industries * Energy * Financial and Business Services * Food & Drink (including agriculture & fisheries) * Life Sciences * Tourism  ABI-2007  2001 Census  ABI analysis limited to higher geographies due to data confidentiality. No trend analysis due to changes in survey method  No data available for either Energy or Life Sciences due to mismatch between sectoral definitions and ABI definitions  ABI and Census data are not comparable due to differences in definitions  Census data for food & drink relate to agriculture and fisheries and the data for tourism relate to hotels & restaurants A3Presence of Third Sector GES: Supportive Business Environment-increase the number of highly successful, competitive businesses Number of HIE key account social enterprises HIEAnalysis limited geographically due to data confidentiality

RefMeasure Description BasisMeasureData Sources Data Issues/Availability A4Export ActivityGES: Supportive Business Environment-pursuit of opportunities outside of Scotland Value of exportsGlobal Connections Survey Data only available at HIE area office level A5New Business Start-Ups GES: Scotland's performance in Enterprise identified as one of the reasons for Scotland’s poor productivity Number of start ups per 1,000 population Committee of Scottish Clearing Bankers: New Business Statistics Data only available at HIE area office level A6UHI HE ActivityHIE Operating Plan: UHI to be capable of transforming the economic, academic and demographic profile of communities Number of registered HE students UHIData not available for some smaller geographies A7Educational Qualifications- Secondary School Attainment GES: Learning, Skills and Well-being- the skills required to contribute to the wider economy. % of the S4 year group from two years previously achieving 3+ Awards at SCQF level 6 (Higher) or better Scottish Government Data only available at local authority level A8Workforce Qualifications GES: Learning, Skills and Well-being-a skilled and educated workforce is essential to building our comparative advantage Proportion of working age adults with SCQF level 4 qualifications or below Annual Population Survey Data only available at local authority level due to confidentiality and low sample sizes

TABLE 1.2: STRAND B: INCREASE POPULATION: MEASURES RefMeasure Description MeasureData SourcesData Issues/Availability B1Absolute Levels and Trends % change % change  Censuses  GRO(S) estimates-post 2001  Census data not available for areas with very small populations  GRO data not available for areas with smaller populations. Some areas’ data combined with those of other areas B2AgeAverage (median) age2001 CensusData not available for some areas with very small populations B3Age Structure % of population aged  2001 Census  GRO(S) estimates-post 2001  Census data not available for areas with very small populations  GRO data not available for areas with smaller populations. Some areas’ data combined with those of other areas

TABLE 1.3: STRAND C: REDUCE REGIONAL DISPARITY: MEASURES RefMeasure Description BasisMeasureData Sources Data Issues/ Availability C1GVAGES: Key measure of relative performance GVA per capitaONSData only available for some HIE area office levels C2IncomeGES: Differences in income across Scotland act as a drag on our economic performance and potential Household income per capitaCACIEstimates not available for some areas with very small populations. Results expressed in terms of four quartiles across the islands/areas covered in the baseline analysis C3UnemploymentHIE Operating Plan: Extending the high participation rate- unemployment is more acute in peripheral and island areas  Claimant unemployment rate  Number of claimant unemployed of over 6 months duration as a % of total number of claimant unemployed NOMIS and GRO(S) Due to data unavailability, rates calculated as % of all men aged and all women aged 16-59, rather than as a % of economically active in those age groups. Thus rates shown are not comparable to published official rates. Analysis limited to higher geographies due to data availability C4Narrow Economic Base HIE Operating Plan: Widen the employment base  % of employment in three largest categories  Public sector employment as a % of total employment  2001 Census  ABI-2007  Categories used are based on SIC 1 digit codes  ABI analysis limited to higher geographies due to data confidentiality. No trend analysis due to changes in survey method  ABI and Census data are not comparable due to differences in definitions used

Findings

Islands/Areas With Strong Concentration in Key Sectors Financial & Business Services Bute Lewis Food & Drink Islay & Jura Barra & Vatersay Lismore Eday Creative Industries Lewis Skye Tourism Arran Mull & Iona Colonsay Iona

New Business Starts Per 1,000 Population: 2007

Milan and Shetland - Equidistant from London

Islands/Areas Relatively Dependent on Public Sector Employment

Islands/Areas With Relatively High Unemployment

The G8: Largest Islands/Areas By Population: 2007

The Wee 8: Smallest Islands/Areas By Population: 2001

: Population Change By Number of Islands/Areas

Main Losers and Gainers: Population Change (%):

Population Change : Argyll &Clyde 2001=100

Population Change : Outer Hebrides 2001=100

Population Change : Orkney 2001=100

Average Age of Resident: 2001 Under 40 Whalsay (36) Fair Isle (37) Small Isles (38) Shetland (39) Over 50 Lismore (57) Cumbrae (54) North Ronaldsay (53) Easdale (51)

Change in Percentage of Population Aged 20-44: Shetland

Average Per Capita Household Income First Quartile Ardnamurchan Bressay Coll Cowal Easdale Fetlar Jura Morvern Papa Westray Shetland Yell Fourth Quartile Canna Egilsay Eigg Flotta Lismore Muck North Ronaldsay Rum Sanday Shapinsay Stronsay Wyre