a Global Ocean Observing System in a Global Framework for Climate Services Albert Fischer Director a.i., GOOS Project Office, IOC/UNESCO 24 August 2011, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland

Monitoring oceans for climate services: Timescales of climate variability and the ocean

An example from the headlines: drought in East Africa

Monitoring oceans for climate services: IPCC AR4 (2007): 100-year projections of temperature and precipitation for Africa

Famine in East Africa today: Short rains season dry at end 2010 due to negative Indian Ocean Dipole Williams and Funk 2011, Climate Dynamics

Famine in East Africa today: New research on the role of the expanding Indian Ocean Warm Pool (long rains) Williams and Funk 2011, Climate Dynamics

Global Framework for Climate Services

GOOS: global in situ elements built for climate climate GOOS is ocean component of GCOS many in situ networks implemented by JCOMM

Adequacy of satellite ocean ECVs defined by GOOS/GCOS, coordinated by CEOS, CGMS

Some critical pieces have fragile funding: sustainability is an ongoing concern

11 A Framework for Ocean Observing IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO GEO Group on Earth Observations CEOS Committee on Earth Observation Satellites POGO Partnership for Observation of the Global Oceans SCOR Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research SCAR Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research GCOS Global Climate Observing System GOOS Global Ocean Observing System JCOMM Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology PICES North Pacific Marine Science Organization ICES International Council for the Exploration of the Sea CoML Census of Marine Life IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme WCRP World Climate Research Programme

Input (Requirements) Output (Data & Products) Process (Observations) A Simple System

Requirement What to Measure Essential Ocean Variables Issues Structure of the Framework Data Assembly Data Products Issues Impact Observations Argo VOS SatelliteConstellation SOOP IOOS Satellite … … … … … … … … … IMOS

Framework: Societal Driver 2010 Weather & Climate UNFCCC/IPCC WCRP WMO RRR

Regional Regional Seas CCAMLR Framework: Societal Drivers Next Decade Fisheries FAO RFMOs Ecosystem services/ Biology CBD CSD WSSD Real-time services Emergency support Ocean forecasting Assessments Global Marine (UN) TWAP (GEF) Regional Weather & Climate UNFCCC/IPCC WCRP WMO RRR Climate services Requirements Expanded EOVs Expanded observing systems and networks Data Products

Readiness Levels Concept: Initial articulation of ideas, and appropriate feasibility studies. Increasing Readiness Levels Attributes: Peer review of ideas and studies at science, engineering, and data management community level. Pilot: Plans evolve from draft to projects and vetted in real-world implementation. Attributes: Planning, negotiating, testing, and approval within appropriate local, regional, global arenas. Mature: Requirements, systems, and data become elements of the sustained global ocean observing system. Attributes: Products of the global ocean observing system are well understood, documented, consistently available, and of societal benefit.

Reform of GOOS governance 26 th Session of the IOC Assembly (22 June - 5 July 2011, Paris) streamlined and strengthened GOOS governance –GOOS as a holistic system encompassing global, regional and coastal observations and products –aligned with a Framework for Ocean Observing oriented to an essential ocean variable approach –GOOS to set requirements based on the needs global conventions and agreements in climate, natural hazards, biodiversity, safety of life at sea, marine assessment, and regional conventions –reinforce global participation through capacity development new (interim) GOOS Steering Committee –5 Member State appointed expert members, up to 10 other expert members, representatives of relevant implementing and coordinating bodies, sponsors

GOOS in a GFCS: outlook GOOS is already designed to the set of requirements for climate monitoring, research, and forecasting, expressed in GCOS documents GOOS will animate Framework for Ocean Observing processes in setting requirements, coordinating observations (through JCOMM and other mechanisms), and coordinating data systems (also through JCOMM, IODE, and in cooperation with WIS) JCOMM Services also examining their contribution to GFCS Expand the set of requirements we are feeding - Climate Services will be potentially provide a new set of requirements, and hopefully bring new sustained support to ocean observations we need to agree how these requirements are expressed to GOOS

Uncertainty: spread in model precipitation projections need for improved monitoring, research, downscaling

Climate change in coastal systems Climate change will –increase vulnerability to extreme events –increase coastal erosion –add to human pressures on the coast –conflict with current paths of human development Adaptation costs are less than costs of inaction

Sea level rise: global mean

Sea level rise: observed regional rise

Sea level rise and adaptation: vulnerability