Africa Adaptation Programme NMS requirements for GFCS related research and capacity development Joseph D. Intsiful Data and information Management Expert This presentation outlines the key responsibilities of country participants in building their tier-1 and tier-2 infrastructure as part of their contribution to the establishment of the AAP multi-tier infrastructure. We provide key ideas that were developed and shared among participants of the AAP-ICTP workshops on Development, Use and Management of Climate Data Servers. We also provide technical support and services to countries through our helpdesk to support the procurement of HPC/Climate servers, installation, use and management of HPC/Climate data servers. We also support improving country access to robust climate data and building capacities for information management. WMO GFCS Workshop, WMO, Geneva, 10 – 12 OCTOBER 2011 Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

Content Background - nature of the problem of capacity in NMS Need for innovative approaches to capacity development The role of regional institutions Building on existing regional programmes Summary and conclusion Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

Background Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc 90 % of events 70 % of casualties 78 % of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions. Economic losses Loss of life Number of events Between 1980 and 2007, nearly 8500 natural disasters worldwide have taken the lives of nearly 2 million people and produced economic losses over 1.2 trillion US dollars. Recent statistics from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters reveal that, of this total, some 90 per cent of the natural disasters, 70 per cent of casualties and 75 per cent of economic losses were caused by weather-, climate- or water-related hazards such as droughts, floods, windstorms, tropical cyclones and storm surges, extreme temperatures, land slides, wild fires or by health epidemics and insect infestations directly linked to the meteorological and hydrological conditions. 4

Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes on the Rise ! Hazard intensity and frequency increasing linked to climate variability and change! Vulnerability and exposure on the rise ! Energy Transportation Water Resource Management Intensity Strong Wind People Agriculture Urban areas Heavy rainfall / Flood Caucasus: floods, droughts and landslides Central Asia: floods, droughts, avalanches and landslides 10 % of the total population of Central Asia has been affected by disasters in the last 10 years, 2500 died Sand and dust storm Hot spots: Tadjikistan and Fergana Valley Projected Impact of Climate change (IPCC) Caucasus: increase in temperature, increase of heatwaves, precipitation intensity, and precipitation per extreme events will increase, runoff will decraese Decrease in reservoir water levels itensifying landslides, increase of droughts and precipitations Black Sea level to rise Increase snow melt causing flask floods Central Asia Glacier melting Decrease in mean annual precipitation, increase in the frequency of very dry spring, summer and automn seasons Crop yield could decrease up to 30 % Changes in runoff could have significant effect on powe output of hydropower generating countries Increase in temnperature will increase the probability of avalanches and mudflows Main economic sectors linked to HydoMet and climate Hydropower and dam management Georgia 70 % HydroPower dependant Kazakhstan possesses 5 operational hydroelectric plants which provide roughly 12% of the electricity generation. Tajikistan and Kirghizstan (90 % of hydroelec) Agriculture Agriculture (20-30 % of GDP in all countries except Kazakhstan) Importance of irrigation for cotton production, large irrigation infrastructure Water Kirghistan and Tadjikistan generate 70 % of the water of the whole Central Asia Kazahkstan, Ouzbekistan and Turkmenistan have large irrigated areas depending on these water resources Transportation Landlocked countries Need for long-term planning to manage multi-sectoral risks Drought Heatwaves Frequency Source: 2006 WMO DRR report

Climate Products for Risk Management and Adaptation Planning Short to medium term weather forecasts Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts Decadal climate trend analysis Climate change scenarios Next hour to 10 days Season to year Decade Long term climate change Short-term planning Emergency Preparedness Medium-term operational planning Risk assessment and management Long-term strategic planning Infrastructures planning, retrofitting Land zoning International negotiations with national policy implications Decision-making Timelines

… from a global climate model (GCM) grid to the point of interest. Products required at local scale but often available at coarse scale. … from a global climate model (GCM) grid to the point of interest. © Crown copyright Met Office

Challenges to the delivery of products and services to support national development Over 88 % of NMHS in Africa, are challenged in delivering climate products and services to support DRR 92% lack appropriate application software 96% need upgrading of operational infrastructure to support DRR 92% need technical training on production of climate products and services 85% say lack of effective co-ordination with other agencies involved in DRR impacts negatively on operations Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html)

Need for innovative approaches to Capacity Development in NMS

Elements of Innovative Approaches Requires supporting NMS to develop Integrated and Comprehensive approaches to providing robust and user-relevant Climate Products and Services Efficient data and information management support to countries to effectively support National Planning and Decision Making Mechanisms Participatory stakeholder interactions to involve the user community in problem definition and solution development processes

Emerging thinking: User, Application and Service   AFRICA ADAPTATION PROGRAMME Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa Emerging thinking: User, Application and Service Local and national emergency service Governmental authorities Public Local and national emergency service Construction companies Food suppliers Urban planners Local to national govt Banks Companies USERS Legislators APPLICATION Urban & coastal areas seasonal preparation of Stocking of constrution materials Medium to long-term strategic planning Infrastructure development Land use zoning and planning Building codes emergency planning activation and response Eg: evacuation Long-term strategic planning Probabilistic seasonal to inter annual forecast eg: probabilities of severity and intensity of extreme events Short to medium term weather forecasts Eg tropical cyclone, storm surge, flood SERVICE Decadal climate trend analysis Climate change scenarios Next hour to 10 days Season to year Decade Long term climate change

Integrated & Comprehensive Data Collection/Sharing Framework Integrated and comprehensive approaches are required for data collection. Both bio-physical and socio-economic data about our human and natural systems that is geo-referenced in space and time is critical. Data homogenization approaches are a must. Multi-disciplinary, Spatio-temporal and Data Platform-independent Standard

Integrated Analysis and Visualization Seamless Data Integration Integrated Data Analysis and Viewer Integrating platform to integrate heterogeneous and multi-disciplinary datasets Integrated data analysis and visualization – frontend of Decision Support Tools for multi-sectoral assessment The establishment and use of early warning and decision support systems are being widely applied. Tier 0: A central computer that is large enough to host considerable amount of data located at International Centre for Theoretical Physics (AAP partner) Tier 1: Consist of four African Regional Centres with capacity large enough to guarantee that combined data created and stored is similar to that of Tier 0. Tier 2: Consist of all AAP Countries that will access the infrastructure by means of an internet - web interface.

Regional Multi-tier Climate Data storage and Computational Infrastructure Tier 2: All member countries Tier 1: Regional Centres Tier 0: Control Centre A multi-tier climate data server.

NMS Components Climate Products and Services Institutional Capacity Development – Leadership and organizational effectiveness Legal, Media and Communication Innovative Financing Knowledge Management Project Management – Monitoring and Evaluation Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

The role of regional institutions

Building Sustainable Regional Capacity Climate information as a regional public good Improve capabilities within MNS through collective action Share knowledge and experiences on nation-specific benefits Contribute to the reduction of asymmetries among countries Demonstrate that a regional climate service can be enhanced as a result of improving national components Agree upon regional coordination mechanisms Mobilize regional resources (financial, human and infrastructure) to promote regional capacity Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

Inter-Regional Technical Support Component (IRTSC) Climate Products and Services Institutional Capacity Development – Leadership and organizational effectiveness Legal, Media and Communication Innovative Financing Knowledge Management Project Management – Monitoring and Evaluation Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

A Key IRTSC Function Facilitate access to the best available data and information on climate variability, change and impacts to support dynamic, long-term national planning and decision-making mechanisms. Through: Assisting in the early analysis and design of national projects and, as those projects are being initiated and implemented. Providing assistance to countries in accessing/generating, collecting and analyzing best available data on climate variability, change and its impacts. Building capacities of countries to address operational challenges - establishment and use of e-infrastructure (ICT, data, tools, methods, network of institutions), early warning systems and decision support tools.

IRTSC support to national activities Country activities are designed to achieve …. Strengthening provision of climate products for national planning to enable countries manage both existing and future risks associated with climate change and other causes Building effective leadership and institutional frameworks for enhanced coordination and cohesion of activities Supporting the piloting of innovative research initiatives Identifying a range of financing options for sustained operation Building knowledge management systems and promoting information sharing Building mechanisms to ensure successful implementation of activities activities are designed to ensure that inter-regional expertise and capacity development is provided to countries including..... Advice and assistance relating to appropriate use of climate information in government decision/ policy-making and planning mechanisms Support for leadership development and institutional reform as well as enabling individual development Encouraging exposure to world best practices - data, tools and methods Support in finding innovative funding options (e.g. public-private partnerships) Creation of region-wide databases and learning opportunities Support for project management to enforce monitoring and evaluation

Establishing and strengthening strategic networks Built/strengthened network at different scale/level: in-country linkages between climate products and services providers, policy/decision makers and end-users (disaster management institutions, NGOs, private and public sectors institutions). strategic networks with key regional centres (ACMAD, CIIFEN, ACPC and RSMCs) and International Climate Centres (UKMO, NCAR, Meteo France, etc). strategic networks with key international institutions (WMO, UNFCCC, WFP, ISDR, UNDP, UNEP, IFRC, ICTP, etc).

In-country technical assistance - mentoring, trouble shooting and advisory services Developed a Helpdesk to enable rapid response to problem resolution – established a local network of problem-solvers, mentors and advisors. In-country technical support for: services on data and information management: data collection, analysis, e-infrastructure, tools and methods Support procurement, use and management of operational infrastructure - early warning systems and decision support tools.

Building on existing regional programmes Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) Climate forecasts could be of substantial benefit to society in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate variability and change. RCOFs produce and disseminate a regional assessment (using a consensus-based approach) of regional climate for the upcoming season. RCOFs bring together national, regional and international climate experts, on an operational basis, to produce regional climate outlooks based on input from NMHSs, regional institutions, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and Global Producing Centres of long range forecasts (GPCs) . Through interaction with sectoral users, extension agencies and policy makers, RCOFs assess the likely implications of the outlooks on the core socio-economic sectors in the region and explore potential applications of these outlooks. RCOF sessions feed into national forums to develop detailed national-scale climate outlooks and risk information including warnings for communication to decision-makers and the public. Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

DFID-Hadley Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP): Programme for Africa 3-year programme, 8.5 Hadley staff Programme of research and user-guided application: for monthly, seasonal and decadal (10-year) timescales Aims: improve understanding of African climate processes, and their representation in climate models jointly develop new forecast products to inform early warning systems and adaptation planning study programmes and knowledge sharing, to strengthen climate science centres in Africa consultation with African stakeholders to determine specific prediction requirements. © Crown copyright Met Office 25

The CORDEX initiative Sponsored by the World Research Climate Programme Provide an ensemble of coordinated Regional Climate Scenarios for 1950-2100, for the majority of land-regions of the globe Make this data available and useable to users, with a common diagnostic set and format (following CMIP5) at worldwide archives – Regional and Global Databanks Provide a novel framework for testing Regional Climate Models and Downscaling techniques for the recent past and future scenarios Foster coordination between downscaling efforts around the world & encourage local participation in this process, especially in developing nations With CMIP5 provide climate simulation data to support IPCC AR5 - http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/SF_RCMTerms.html © Crown copyright Met Office

Climate for Development in Africa (ClimDev-Africa) Initiative Primary focus three areas: Generation and wide dissemination of reliable and high quality information on climatic situation in Africa. Capacity enhancement of policy makers and policy support institutions to integrate information on climate change into development programs. Implementation of pilot adaptation practices that demonstrate the value of mainstreaming climate information into development. Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

Summary and Conclusion

Summary & Conclusion Design and implement climate services based on the identified users’ demand Assist in the generation of specific public policies regarding climate services Ensure alliances with private, public, community and media Foster the consolidation of multi-institutional frameworks Develop a resource mobilization plan Ensure the timely provision of training, e-infrastructure and knowledge networks Ensure formal commitments and alliances. Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

Summary and Conclusion Helpdesk for effective in-country technical support and services should be established at the regional level Data and information management strategy should be developed and implemented. Relevant networks and partnerships to support data and information management should be established. Use existing regional and international projects to harness national resources and talents (e.g. CORDEX initiative). Development of e-infrastructure for data and information management, early warning and decision support tools for national planning and development.

Targeted hands-on training to address specific needs of countries. Summary and Conclusion Targeted hands-on training to address specific needs of countries. Continuously improve the e-infrastructure, tools and methods as updates become available. Joint initiatives with partners to deliver products and services to support countries.

Summary and Conclusion Appropriate national and regional frameworks should be established and negotiated with involvement of all stakeholders – national ownership. Research partnerships would enhance regional and North-South collaboration – improve delivery of technical support and services. Improved e-infrastructure would enhance the capacity of countries to provide a wide range of robust climate products and services in a timely manner.

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