World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water The Observation and Monitoring Component of Global Framework for Climate Services First Consultation Meeting August 24, 2011, GENEVA Dr W. ZHANG, D/OBS WMO WMO

Basic conceptual elements of GFCS --Observations and Monitoring The purpose of this element of the Framework is to ensure that climate observations necessary to meet the needs of climate services are generated. Key tasks for the Framework will be to define the gaps that most crucially affect climate services, to bring attention to these deficiencies and to assist in efforts to fill them.

Opening of the Session Symposium objectives, Dr T. Mohr, special adviser of the Secretary General of WMO on GFCS, also Moderator of the Consultation Meeting Welcome Remarks – Deputy Secretary General (Mr J. Lengoasa) Introduction to the key focus on the implementation of the observation and monitoring component of GFCS– Dr W. Zhang, Director, Observing and Information Systems Department, WMO

Part I: GFCS requirements on observations and monitorings Perspective of GFCS Operational Climate Services Information System (CSIS) on Observations and Monitoring – Dr R. Kolli, Chief World Climate Applications and Services, WMO Perspective of the GFCS User Interface Platform Needs – Dr G. Love, Director, Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department, WMO Perspective of the GFCS Capacity building Component – Mr R. Masters, Director, Development and Regional Activities Department, WMO Perspective of GFCS Research and Modelling Component on Observations & Products - Dr. V. Ryabinin, World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) & Research Department, WMO

Part II: Discussion on observation system development for supporting GFCS Role of Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) – Dr W. Westermeyer, Representative of GCOS Role of Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) – Mr A. Fischer, Representative of IOC/GOOS Role of Space Agencies – Dr J. Schmetz, Representative of EUMETSAT Role of WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) – Mr Fred Branski, President of CBS

Observations to meet GFCS needs Understanding Models and Prediction Service Delivery Consequences Validation & Initiation Output Monitoring Analysis Observations The availability of new observations strongly motivates advances in understanding, prediction, and application.

Major Gaps in the Three Domains Atmosphere Ocean Terrestrial Polar Regions (all three domains)

Gaps in global observation systems: Atmosphere Domain Basic conventional network coverage is poor for many developing nations (GSN& GUAN). Urban areas will require improved observations to support urban-specific adaptation decisions All countries should give high priority to the need for sufficiently resourced observation networks. Good design, effective planning, progressive and sustainable implementation. Major Gaps Implementation strategy

Why a Framework for Climate Services?

Gaps in global observation systems: Ocean Domain The ocean observation system require substantial additional national efforts to build and sustain their implementation. The fragility of the financial arrangements supporting most of the present effort is of particular concern, and very limited progress in establishing national oceanic institutions. The major challenges to success in the coming decade can be reduced to the need for long-term funding and improved international and national organizational structures to build and sustain a truly interdisciplinary, coherent, systematic and sustained ocean observing system. Major Gaps Implementation strategy

Accuracy, Precision Representativeness Measurement traceability Long-time series stability Reducing uncertainty …… Ensure the quality of the observations to meet GFCS requirements, data rescue

Maximizing Data Quality and Usability A Example: climate monitoring from space Users Users Satellites & sensors Satellite data Essential Climate products GOS GSICS Consistent Calibrated data sets SCOPE-CM Sustained CO-ordinated Processing of Environmental satellite data for Climate Monitoring (SCOPE-CM)Sustained CO-ordinated Processing of Environmental satellite data for Climate Monitoring (SCOPE-CM) Global productsGlobal products Sustained into the futureSustained into the future Coordinated globallyCoordinated globally Basic system for the climate monitoring from spaceBasic system for the climate monitoring from space

Multi-satellite Intercalibration improves MSU time series Operational Calibration Improved calibrated radiances using SNO- improved differences between sensors by order of magnitude. Trends for nonlinear calibration algorithm using SNO cross calibration 0.20 K Decade -1 Improved Calibration

14 Developing a Space-based Architecture for Climate Monitoring Challenges: Continuity and improvement of operational constellations Sustained observation of all ECVs observable from space Transition Research to operations for priority, mature observations Generation of QC products Integration: network optimization, system interoperability, composite products

Historical Data Rescue HLTF highlighted DARE as a critical component of the developement of local climate services. CCl Task Team on Data Rescue under OPACE-I looks after DARE worldwide and mobilize experts and resources to accelerate DARE WCSP/DMA currently support DRR programme in the Carribeans, South East Europe and SE Asia Subregional initiatives like MEDARE, WADARE.. VCP supports through WMO and bilateral collaboration

New Observing Capability & Impact A example: Sea level Observations: 100 fold improvement in 30 years CCl Management Group meeting, Geneva May 2010

The ENSO The predictability Seasonal climate predictions require information below the surface for many tens of metres depth, For decadal climate prediction, information from the full depth of the ocean may be needed.

data New science and technology in data utilization for climate: Fully utilize observational data and develop value- added products, information to meet many user sector needs. products information knowledge

19 19 The order of the top five and their contribution to error reduction is: AMSU-A (4 satellites) 17.2% IASI (one satellite) 12.0% AIRS (one satellite) 11.8% AIRREP (aircraft temperature and winds) 9.3% GPSRO (bending angles) 8.5% TEMP (radiosonde winds, humidity, and temperatures) 7.9% QuikSCAT (scatterometer surface winds over the oceans) 5.2% AIRS+IASI contribute to 23.8% error reduction 4 AMSU-A contribute to 17.2% error reduction RAOBs contribute to 7.9% error reduction

Need an Integrated Global Observing System meet all requirements WMO Cg-15 decision EC WG on WIGOS CBS take leading role WIGOS Initiative

4/25/ WIGOS Integration Composite systems, network of networks Integration through various aspects – Support for diverse user needs – Systems optimised for efficiency and effectiveness – Integration through products, model and analysis – End-to-end service delivery model Global Regional National

National Climate Service Needs One Example from China

Jan. 10 – Feb 8, 2008, one month frozen rain and cold T climate disaster in South East China Red areas is frozen rain

Jan 10 – Feb 1 average temperatures above: average max below: average min Lowest temperature and longest period in the past 50 years historical records Lowest in 50 years

Climate Service Priority Direct economic loss exceed 100 Billion RMB & more than 100 people died; Similar cases happen every year around the world, but we are not be able to provide quality services at the moment due to limited capacity & capability MONTHLY, SEASONAL to inter-annual climate prediction are all WMO Members priorities!

Questionnaire: Which climate services do you need but are currently unable to obtain ? 31

Capacity Building within all the components of GFCS, and the key capacity indicator will be the climate Prediction Skills Source: Martin Miller, ECMWF