Do not Predict “THE Future” Forecast “Alternative FutureS” Invent “Preferred Futures” Continuously

THREE “COMPONENTS” OF THE FUTURES

3 “COMPONENTS” OF THE FUTURES 1. Continuations Things that have always existed Existed in pasts & present, so in futures

3 “COMPONENTS” OF THE FUTURES 1. Continuations Things that have always existed Existed in pasts & present, so in futures 2. Cycles Not in present, but in past, so in futures OR big in present, not past, not futures

THREE “COMPONENTS” OF THE FUTURES 1. Continuations Things that have always existed Existed in pasts & present, so in futures 2. Cycles Not in present, but in past, so in futures OR big in present, not past, not futures 3. Novelties Never before experienced by humans Not in past or present, will in futures

THREE “COMPONENTS” OF THE FUTURES 1. Continuations ??% 2. Cycles ??% 3. Novelties ??% Total 100%

Three “Components” of the Futures (2) THE WAY IT USED TO BE

Three “Components” of the Futures (2) THE WAY IT USED TO BE 1. Continuations (80%)

Three “Components” of the Futures (2) THE WAY IT USED TO BE 1. Continuations (80%) 2. Cycles (15%)

Three “Components” of the Futures (2) THE WAY IT USED TO BE 1. Continuations (80%) 2. Cycles (15%) 3. Novelties (5%)

Three “Components” of the Futures (2) THE WAY IT MAY BE

Three “Components” of the Futures (2) THE WAY IT MAY BE 1. Continuations (5%) 2. Cycles (15%) 3. Novelties (80%)

Theory TrendsImagesEvents Methods

Any statement about the futures must be based on a theory of social change

We live in a world today where new technologies are invented, developed, produced and diffused daily. Technology is the major agent of change in our world.

The diffusion of current technologies and the creation and diffusion of new technologies changes behaviors which changes beliefs.

Marshall McLuhan WE SHAPE OUR TOOLS AND THEREAFTER OUR TOOLS SHAPE US

One example of how technological change causes social change: (while any technology could be used, this is an example of change in communication technologies).

Stages of social evolution and changes in communication technologies 200,000Pre-speechHomo Sapiens 35, 000SpeechHunting & Gathering 5,000WritingAgricultural 400PrintingIndustrial 100ElectronicsInformation Now????

WHAT’S NEXT?? ?

Four Generic Alternative Futures Continued Growth Collapse Disciplined Society Transformational Society

WHAT’S NEXT? CONTINUED GROWTH?

WHAT’S NEXT? COLLAPSE?

WHAT’S NEXT? A DISCIPLINED SOCIETY?

WHAT’S NEXT? A TRANSFORMATIONAL SOCIETY?

Four Generic Alternative Futures Continued Growth Collapse Disciplined Society Transformational Society

So what’s next? They are many possible futures Here is one:

A Dream Society of Icons and Aesthetic experience

THE “ PLACE ” INDUSTRIES Construction, Architecture, Transportation

THE “ WORDS ” INDUSTRIES Government, Law, Business, Education

THE “ IMAGE ” INDUSTRIES Communications, Entertainment, Military, Space

WORDSPLACE IMAGE

Rolf Jensen, The Dream Society: The coming shift from information to imagination. Joseph Pine II and James H. Gilmore, The Experience Economy: Work is theatre and every business a stage. Daniel H. Pink, “The MFA is the new MBA,” Harvard Business Review. Daniel H. Pink, A whole new mind: Moving from the Information Age to the Conceptual Age. Virginia Postel, The substance of style: The rise of aesthetic value is remaking commerce, culture, and consciousness. Ernest Sternberg, The Economy of Icons: How business manufactures meaning.

In addition to communication technologies there are many other technologies transforming Earth and Humanity.

Robotics Artificial Intelligence and the emergence of Cultures of Autonomous Beings

Genetic engineering, clones, cyborgs and the emergence of post-homo sapiens

Space exploration, space settlements and the emergence of new intelligent life-forms and cultures

A Dream Society is not inevitable. There are many other possible futures.

Continuation of Industrial and Information Society

The Clash of Fundamentalisms (Political, Economic, Religious, Cultural)

Economic and/ or Environmental Collapse

End of oil global climate change sea level rise shortages of food and water new and renewed diseases continued global population growth and regional depopulation

Unsustainable debt-bound neoliberal capitalism with no viable alternative

Any Useful Idea About the Futures Should Appear to be Ridiculous