26th WGNE Meeting, October 2010, Tokyo, Japan. REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT of the COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Dr. Michel Béland

26th WGNE Meeting, October 2010, Tokyo, Japan. CAS XV Incheon, Republic of Korea Nov hosted by KMA Re-elected President Dr. M. Béland, Canada and elected Dr. T. Nakazawa, Japan, Vice –President. Drs. G. Brunet and O. Hov were reappointed Chairs of OPAGs WWRP and EPAC, respectively. Endorsed a seamless approach to coordination of weather, climate, water and environmental prediction research and strong linkages to operational observations and predictions as well as users consistent with the EC Research Task Team Report (item 8.2(1)) Requested greater collaboration between CAS and WCRP. Requested the President to further explore collaborations and partnerships with other external scientific bodies such as ICSU ( for example see item 8.2(2))

26th WGNE Meeting, October 2010, Tokyo, Japan. The Commission agreed that: a review of the CAS mandate was needed. the CAS terms of reference needed to be reviewed and updated considering the many changes in the operating environment within WMO in the past four years. These changes are well documented in the analysis and recommendations of the Executive Council Research Task Team (EC-RTT) on Research Aspects of an Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water and Environmental Prediction Framework (WMO/TD-No. 1496; The proposed new terms of reference (Resolution in this Agenda Item) take into account the desire of Members to better link programmatic activity to the Expected Results of the WMO Strategic Plan. The Commission agreed with the request of EC-LVIII (paragraph ) that more emphasis should be given to the connection to climate research activities in CAS and made changes accordingly.

26th WGNE Meeting, October 2010, Tokyo, Japan. OTHER CAS XV ADVICE (I) Recommendation to subsume the Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (AREP) into the 3 existing main research programmes of CAS (GAW, WWRP and THORPEX) as part of WMO programme simplification. The JSCs of the WWRP and the WCRP and also the THORPEX ICSC to set up an appropriate collaborative structure to carry out an international research initiative on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. It recommended that this is coordinated with WMO climate service delivery and the Global Framework for Climate Services. In recognition of the growing importance of rapid and potentially catastrophic polar environmental changes, WMO needs to place emphasis in research facilitated by CAS on, not only tropical and mid-latitude processes, but also polar region processes. CAS XV supported the concept of a Polar Decade as a potential legacy of IPY

26th WGNE Meeting, October 2010, Tokyo, Japan. OTHER CAS XV ADVICE (II) WMO work towards establishing an Integrated Global Carbon Observation Prediction and Assessment System, acknowledging that monitoring requirements may be forthcoming to support global emission reduction and mitigation policy. The considerable research necessary to support such a system would need to be compatible with what might ultimately become operational (as part of a GFCS) The Commission recommended that WMO Members, including NMHSs and their national partners in other agencies and the WMO Secretariat, play a leading role in enhancing environmental observations, predictions and service delivery (six specific actions)

26th WGNE Meeting, October 2010, Tokyo, Japan. CAS XV SUGGESTED SIX SPECIFIC GOALS FOR THE COMMISSION: 1.Implementation and successful completion of the Year of the Tropical Convection project; 2.Extension of capacity building programmes to the developing countries showing real evidence of progress and achievement; 3.Elevation of the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) of WWRP to a status of international respect and recognition, 4.Implementation of a joint strategy in hydrometeorology that cuts across relevant programmes of this and other Commissions; 5.Implementation of a comprehensive initiative in air quality involving all programme areas of the Commission including regional aspects; 6.Achieve progress in strengthening the governance arrangements of the Commission, particularly in relation to broader participation and gender equity and the preparation of plans that include expected results and performance indicators for consideration at the next session.

26th WGNE Meeting, October 2010, Tokyo, Japan. MOVING FORWARD ( 1) Goal 1: YOTC moving forward as planned. Goal 3: CAS President meeting with ICSU ED to discuss CAS involvement in Earth System Visioning exercise and Belmont project. WWRP and GAW are part of the Belmont Panel Project report. Have been involved in June discussions in Paris. Goal 4: Participation of WWRP/THORPEX in HYMEX; consideration of Canada/USA Great lakes earth system and coupled modeling project with IJC as a potential RDP in hydrological forecasting out to seasonal time scales. Goal 6: Highest number ever of woman scientists involved in CAS/ARE Management Group and scientific steering committees.

26th WGNE Meeting, October 2010, Tokyo, Japan. MOVING FORWARD ( 2) Joint WCRP/WWRP/THORPEX workshop in Exeter on monthly to seasonal forecasting in December. Polar forecasting and prediction workshop to be convened in Oslo in October 2010 (Also links with IPY 2012 Conference in Montreal, April 2012)). THORPEX Africa initiative needs to be ramped up (RA-1 meeting in November 2010 in Marrakesh?). Needs to be discussed at this meeting (see also Action from EC LXII.) Staffing of D-AREP and CAS VP. Air Quality modeling experts now moving into intercomparison of global and regional models, and exploring better numerical modeling approaches (Chapman Conference).

26th WGNE Meeting, October 2010, Tokyo, Japan. CONCLUSION Upcoming WMO 16th Congress Important for CAS and its programs, particularly from a budgetary perspective. Present staffing strength is too low by 1 or 2 program officers for WWRP, and budgetary constraints severely limit development of new initiatives. The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) should offer interesting new opportunities for CAS and its programs (Ex: NWP and GHG monitoring). Similarly, implementation of GFCS will increase the importance of WGNE, which will continue to play a key role in addressing sources of uncertainties in both NWP and Climate models at all time and space scales.