CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware River Basin Commission Carol R. Collier, PP, AICP Executive Director Delaware River Basin Commission

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Extreme water resource management

Delaware River Watershed Facts q Basin + Bay =13,539 mi² q 12,757 mi² Drainage (~ 0.4 of 1% of the continental US) (~ 0.4 of 1% of the continental US) q 330 miles: Longest undammed river east of the Mississippi q ~ 50% basin land is in PA q Over 15 million people rely on the waters of the basin (~ 5% of the US population)

or +6 inches per year since 2004 on average In last 6 years, cumulative departure from normal >40inches

Drought of the 1960s

Cannonsville Reservoir December 2001 DROUGHT: Extreme Water Supply Planning

Serial Flooding: Extreme Flood Mitigation 3 record-breaking floods in 22 months: Sept 2004 April 2005 June 2006

DRY WET Variability within Extremes

Rutgers – Office of NJ State Climatologist …and Changing Averages

Flow 3000 cfs Philadelphia Intake Salt Line Range Prepared by Philadelphia Water Dept

Critical Water Supply Areas 2 critical ground water areas Special withdrawal limits/ review thresholds Emphasis on conjunctive use - surface water alternative is crucial

Montague Trenton Operating Plans NYC Delaware Basin Reservoirs drive the Basin- wide Operating Plan NYC Delaware Basin Reservoirs drive the Basin- wide Operating Plan DRBC storage in 2 Army Corps reservoirs drive Lower Basin Operating Plan DRBC storage in 2 Army Corps reservoirs drive Lower Basin Operating Plan Beltzville Beltzville Blue Marsh Blue Marsh Merrell Creek Reservoir Merrell Creek Reservoir DRBC Drought Emergency Actions can mobilize additional 69 BG for flow augmentation DRBC Drought Emergency Actions can mobilize additional 69 BG for flow augmentation

Extreme issues Is there sufficient storage to meet increases in demand…under a prolonged drought? Is there sufficient storage to meet increases in demand…under a prolonged drought? Is 3000 cfs target sufficient to support oysters, repel salt front and keep intakes safe? Is 3000 cfs target sufficient to support oysters, repel salt front and keep intakes safe? Is 69 BG of emergency storage enough to meet flow needs…in the next drought emergency? Is 69 BG of emergency storage enough to meet flow needs…in the next drought emergency? What more does climate change add to the stressors in our management scenarios? What more does climate change add to the stressors in our management scenarios?

Assumptions for Future Scenarios Increasing Temperatures: > 2- 4 o C Increasing Temperatures: > 2- 4 o C Equal or Increased Precipitation: > 7 – 9% Equal or Increased Precipitation: > 7 – 9% Greater Intensity of Storms Greater Intensity of Storms More Precip. in Winter Months More Precip. in Winter Months Warmer Summers (Higher Demand & ET) Warmer Summers (Higher Demand & ET) Working at the Extremes Working at the Extremes Floods and Droughts Floods and Droughts Increase in Sea Level Rise Increase in Sea Level Rise Inundation (height + tidal range change) Inundation (height + tidal range change) Storm Surge Storm Surge Salinity Increases Salinity Increases

Changes in Snowpack and Snowmelt Less snow in the winter - affects water supply for many who depend on the melting of snowpack as a water source. Less snow in the winter - affects water supply for many who depend on the melting of snowpack as a water source. Timing of snowmelt - earlier snowmelt may require changes to how water supply reservoirs are managed. Timing of snowmelt - earlier snowmelt may require changes to how water supply reservoirs are managed.

Sea Level Rise Global Sea Level Rise Regional Changes gravity, ocean currents and ocean density subsidence Model 0.5 meter rise 1.0 meter rise 1.5 meter rise Global + Regional = 0.72m (2.3 ft) = 1.67m (5.5. ft)

SLR: Northeast US Regional Changes In the Northeast US sea level is rising much faster than the global average, most likely due to local land subsidence. Inferred subsidence rates are -0.6 to 2.7 mm yr -1. Over the 21 st Century, this is an additional sea-level rise of -6 to 27 cm. Sources: Zervas (2001), Church et al. (2004) Source – Ray Najjar

Potential Impacts to Water Supply and Infrastructure Prolonged Droughts – Storage? Prolonged Droughts – Storage? More ET - Increased Irrigation? More ET - Increased Irrigation? Stormwater system re-vamps? Stormwater system re-vamps? Sea Level Rise - Salinity Pushing Inland Sea Level Rise - Salinity Pushing Inland Infrastructure placement - Water Lines, Sewer Lines, Wastewater Treatment Infrastructure placement - Water Lines, Sewer Lines, Wastewater Treatment Loss Of Snow Pack Loss Of Snow Pack

Water Intakes at Risk from Drought and Sea Level Rise: location of the salt line at high tide during drought Power Exelon Delaware Generating Station Exelon Richmond Generating Station Philadelphia Gas Works Richmond Industrial Koch Material Co. NGC Industries Rohm and Haas Philadelphia MacAndrew and Forbes Co. Pennwalt Corporation Sunoco Public Supply Torresdale Water Intake (provides almost 60% of Philadelphias water supply) New Jersey American Water Co. Tri-County Water Treatment Plant

Special Protection Waters Antidegradation program in place to protect the existing high quality waters in the non-tidal River and headwaters…but

the most sensitive areas of a watershed the most sensitive areas of a watershed Existing contiguous forest is critical to water quantity and quality Existing contiguous forest is critical to water quantity and quality Multiple stressors Multiple stressors Increasing development & impervious cover Increasing development & impervious cover Road cuts, pipeline connections, Road cuts, pipeline connections, Forest Fragmentation Forest Fragmentation Philadelphia Source Water Protection Analysis Philadelphia Source Water Protection Analysis #1 threat: Change in Delaware River Headwaters #1 threat: Change in Delaware River Headwaters Vulnerability of Headwaters 15 Million People +

Adaptation to climate change is now inevitable… The only question is will it be by plan or by chaos? Roger Jones, CSIRO, Australia; Co-author of IPCC

Time to Plan & Take Action Partnerships, multiple agencies and stakeholders Partnerships, multiple agencies and stakeholders Holistic Analysis – Holistic Analysis – Geography – basinwide Geography – basinwide Water quality, quantity, biological/habitat, human needs Water quality, quantity, biological/habitat, human needs Informed decision makers – risks and options Informed decision makers – risks and options

Develop Informed Options Sophisticated models & scenario testing Sophisticated models & scenario testing Test drought mitigation plans: drought and flood (of Record ?) Test drought mitigation plans: drought and flood (of Record ?) Evaluate effects of reservoir ops on downstream flooding Evaluate effects of reservoir ops on downstream flooding Evaluate effect of land use change on stream flows Evaluate effect of land use change on stream flows Analysis / Options based on Potential Risk Analysis / Options based on Potential Risk What infrastructure is at risk? What infrastructure is at risk? Relative costs/benefits/potential of adapting in place vs. moving. Relative costs/benefits/potential of adapting in place vs. moving.

Develop Informed Options Overlay Climate Change on other water resource stressors Overlay Climate Change on other water resource stressors Increasing demand – potable supply, power generation, irrigation Increasing demand – potable supply, power generation, irrigation Land use change: increased impervious cover, loss of forests,etc. Land use change: increased impervious cover, loss of forests,etc. Evaluate Adaptation Options Evaluate Adaptation Options Reduce Demand - Water Conservation - System Efficiency Reduce Demand - Water Conservation - System Efficiency Better Stormwater Management Better Stormwater Management Need for Increased Upstream Storage (?) Need for Increased Upstream Storage (?) Flood Mitigation – move or protect? Flood Mitigation – move or protect?

Time for Action !

Thank you.

New / Modified Storage & Infrastructure Water storage / flood mitigation / Interconnections Instream Flow Needs (ecological / salinity) Flood Vulnerability Drought Vulnerability 2030 Withdrawal Demand Water Availability GOAL: Determine basin-wide concerns, identify location and magnitude of deficits for vulnerable watersheds and river points ASSESSMENTASSESSMENT STRATEGIESSTRATEGIES Reduction of Demand by Conservation Measures Conservation pricing, drip irrigation, residential irrigation alternatives, water loss control, plumbing requirements, water reuse, education, etc. Increasing Instream Flow / Mitigating Flood Loss Local solutions, LID, riverine buffers, protection of headwaters, stormwater infiltration, storage in old quarries/ mine rec., ASR

Extent of Marcellus Shale Formation within the Delaware River Basin 36% (4,937 mi 2 ) of the Delaware Basin is underlain by the Marcellus Shale

Hydro-fracking Phase – (a week or two) Injection pumps, supplies, and many frack tanks for fresh and flowback waters

Photos Courtesy NYC DEP

Other Stressors in the Basin Increasing impervious surfaces Increasing impervious surfaces Changing demographics/ water demand – Changing demographics/ water demand – Population size and location Population size and location Threats to the Headwaters Threats to the Headwaters Quantity and Quality Quantity and Quality