Introduction to Empirical Food & Nutrition Security Analysis

Food Security Introduction Outline Concept Dimensions & Policy Options State of Food Insecurity Today Global Hunger Index Bangladesh Scenario Contemporary Policy Questions Course Structure Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction The World Food Summit in 1996: “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” : Introduction Food Security Introduction

Food Security: Four Dimensions Access Availability Stabilization Utilization Food Security Introduction

Food Security: Policy Options (i) Increase food availability by (a) imports, (b) increased food production by modern technology/expansion of area under cultivation, (c) depleting stocks, (d) efficient market infrastructure, (e) land redistribution; (ii) Promote household/individual access to food by increasing entitlements (subsidies) or endowments (income transfers/asset redistribution/school feeding/nutrition programme); (iii) Better utilization of food by education and general environment like access to safe drinking water and sanitation.   Food Security Introduction

State of Food Insecurity

Food Insecurity A major problem facing developing countries. World: Number and percentage of undernourished persons 2006-2008 - 850million (13%) 2000-2002 - 836million (14%) 1995-1997 - 792million (14%) 1990-1992 - 848million (16%) 1979-1981 - 853million (21%) 1969-1971 - 878million (26%) Source: http://www.fao.org/hunger/en/ Food Security Introduction

Number of hungry people, 1969-2010 Source: FAO Food Security Introduction

Number of Hungry in the world: 925 million in 2010 Food Security Introduction

IFPRI Index Source: IFPRI Global Hunger Index IFPRI Index Source: IFPRI

Food Security Introduction Global Hunger Index Objectives: Rank countries. Compare international experience for policy guidance. Draw global attention. Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction Global Hunger Index Sample: Based on 120 developing and transitional countries; Compares 88 only. Three indicators Un-weighted average as an index Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction Indicators # Indicator Purpose to measure 1 % of calorie deficient / under-nourished population Hunger 2 % children underweight U5 Malnutrition of children, the most vulnerable to hunger 3 U5 mortality rate (%) Child deaths caused by malnutrition & disease Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction Hunger Index Scale Index Classification Color Code ≥ 30.0 Extremely alarming 20.0 – 29.9 Alarming 10.0 – 19.9 Serious 5.0 – 9.9 Moderate hunger ≤ 4.9 Low hunger Food Security Introduction

Country Classification: n= 120 Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction Global Trends: 1990 - 2008 Hunger (Global index): decreased by less than one-fifth 1990: 18.7 2008: 15.2 Performance by indicator % underweight children: declined by 5.9 points Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction Regional Profile: 2008 Status: Alarming Sub-Saharan Africa: 23.3 South Asia: 23.0 Ten countries (highest levels of hunger); nine are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Ten best performers since 1990: None from Sub- Saharan Africa. Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction Country Profiles Best score Mauritius, followed by Jamaica, Moldova, Cuba, and Peru Worst score Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), followed by Eritrea, Burundi, Niger, and Sierra Leone Most progress Kuwait, Peru, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey, and Mexico Regress DRC, North Korea, Swaziland, Guinea-Bissau, and Zimbabwe Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction Country Profiles Highest proportion of population with calorie deficiency Eritrea: 75% DRC: 74% Highest prevalence of underweight children (a measure of malnutrition) India, Yemen, and Timor-Leste: more than 40% Highest child mortality (under 5) rate Sierra Leone: 27% Angola: 26% Source: IFPRI Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction Poverty Profile Food Security Introduction

Food Security: Introduction Where Do The Poor Live? Food Security Introduction Food Security: Introduction

Food Security Introduction Global Index Scale Index Classification Color Code ≥ 30.0 Extremely alarming 20.0 – 29.9 Alarming 10.0 – 19.9 Serious 5.0 – 9.9 Moderate hunger ≤ 4.9 Low hunger Food Security Introduction

2008 Global Hunger Index Source; IFPRI Food Security Introduction 23

Progress – Regress Source; IFPRI Food Security Introduction

GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2008 Source: IFPRI Food Security Introduction

GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2011 Source: IFPRI Food Security Introduction

GHI: Progress in South, East and Southeast Asia Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction Bangladesh: Food Security Scenario http://www.usaid.gov/bd/programs/food_sec.html Nearly self-sufficient in rice; Food security an elusive goal: About 43% of children under-five stunted; Cause: Malnourishment due to poor feeding habits & lack of access to nutritious foods. Lack of diversity in diet: 75% of calories from rice. Decline in agricultural growth rate : 4.7% in the late 1990’s to 2.8% by 2008. Agriculture: Employs 80% population generates 22% of GDP Bangladesh’s arable area: 37% ; natural disasters can affect 30% of this land. Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction Bangladesh: Policy Priorities Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 1. Agricultural Growth and Productivity of Crops, and Adaptation to Climate Change 2. Development of Fisheries and Livestock Sectors 3. Agricultural Marketing, Price Stabilization, Value Chain, and Global/Regional Trade 4. Income Growth, Social Safety Nets, and Public Food Distribution 5. Food Utilization and Nutrition Security 6. Cross-Cutting Issues: Governance and Gender Food Security Introduction

Contemporary Policy Questions 1. What is the state of food insecurity today? 2. If the entire subsidy regime were to be reformed as part of the economic reform programme, what would be the macroeconomic and distributional consequences? 3. What are the different policy roles that a food subsidy prorgramme can play? What is the international evidence? 4. How far an income transfer programme like food stamps is feasible in developing countries like Bangladesh and India? What is the international experience? 5. How far did Bangladesh succeed in dealing with the 1979 famine? How useful is the information base for policy formulation and implementation? 6. What are the effective alternatives to the ‘Food for Work Programme in Bangladesh’? 7. What is the impact of commodity price volatility on nutritional intake of poor households in Bangladesh? Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction Course Structure Addresses issues related to food & nutrition security within a quantitative framework. It raises issues within a quantitative framework; Describes appropriate statistical tools for analysis; Illustrates its application with reference to published studies / exercises based on sample data sets; and Interprets results and examines policy implications. Food Security Introduction

Thank You

Supplementary Information

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Bangladesh: A Food Security Profile Food Security Introduction

Bangladesh: Economic Indicators Total Population (millions) - 2009 (WB) 162.221 Population growth rate - 2009 (WB) 1 % GNI per capita, $ PPP - 2009 (WB) 1550 Population below 1$ PPP per day - 2005 (MDGI) 49 % Rural population - 2009 (WB) 72 % Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) - 2009 (WB) 18 Food Security Introduction

Bangladesh: Health Indicators Pop. with sustainable access to improved sanitation - 2008 (WHO) 53% Life expectancy at birth (years) both genders - 2008 (WHO) 65 65% Pop. with access to improved drinking water sources - 2008 (WHO) 80% Prevalence of HIV among adults aged >= 15 years - 2009 (WHO) 0.05% 0.05% Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 Food Availability 1. Integrated research and extension to develop sustainable responses to climate change . 2. Improved water management and infrastructure for irrigation purposes. 3. Increased supply and sustainable use of agricultural inputs. 4. Development of the fisheries sector. 5. Development of the livestock sector. 6. Improved access to markets, improved agricultural value added, increased nonfarm incomes. Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 Food Access 7. Enhanced capacity strengthening to formulate and implement food policies and related investments. 8. Enhanced public food-management systems. 9. Development of an integrated, multiyear safety net program. Food Security Introduction

Food Security Introduction Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNS Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 Food Utilization 10. Implementation of community-based nutrition activities through livelihood approaches. 11. Updated food consumption and food composition data and behavioral change communication on dietary diversification. 12. Improved food safety and quality. Food Security Introduction