International Ricardian Studies. Marginal impacts of Temperature and Precipitation.

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Presentation transcript:

International Ricardian Studies

Marginal impacts of Temperature and Precipitation

African Crop Study No land value No wages for own labor No reliable county data Had to collect new data Sampled farmers in 11 countries Focused on net revenue per hectare

CountryDrylandIrrigatedTotal Burkina Faso Cameroon Egypt Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Niger Senegal South Africa Zambia Zimbabwe Total

VariableAll FarmsDrylandIrrigated Winter temperature-173.6** Winter temperature squared6.1**3.9*4.9 Spring temperature Spring temperature squared-5.0** Summer temperature173.9**198.6**827.5** Summer temperature squared *-13.1* Fall temperature * Fall temperature squared *

Winter precipitation-2.9* Winter precipitation squared0.0**0.00 Spring precipitation3.5*3.6**-10.6 Spring precipitation squared *0.091* Summer precipitation3.4**1.9*21.4** Summer precipitation squared-0.012** ** Fall precipitation ** Fall precipitation squared0.0055*0.0053* ** *

Mean Flow9.4** ** Farm area-0.1**-0.3**-0.0** Farm area squared0.0*0.0**0.0* Elevation Log(household size) Irrigate(1/0)237.5** Electricity (1/0)66.6**47.7**233.2*

West Africa Dummy136**208**-285 North Africa Dummy457**675* East Africa Dummy-186**-154**-361 Heavy Machinery Dummy51.8**55.5**-60.8 Animal Power Dummy **-185.5** Constant N R

Marginal Impact Africa Regression Irrigated Regression Dryland Regression Temperature -28.3** (-1.3) 33.6 (0.5) -23.0** (-1.6) Precipitation 2.65** (0.36) 2.08 (0.06) 2.02** (0.47)

Marginal impacts of Temperature and Precipitation

Climate Impacts PCM 2100 CCSR 2100 CCC 2100 Dryland ΔNet Revenue (USD/ha) (50.8%) (-36%) (-43%) Irrigated ΔNet Revenue (USD/ha) (30%) (-36%) (29%) All Farms ΔNet Revenue (USD/ha) (48%) (-10%) (-33%)

African Livestock No data on farm value No data on land used Estimated net revenue per farm Estimated livestock owned per farm and then net revenue per livestock owned

Net revenue per farm Value of livestock owned Net revenue per livestock value in US$ 1000 VariableCoef.T-stat.Coef.T-stat.Coef.T-stat. Temperature * small Temperature sq * small Precipitation * small Precipitation sq * small Temperature * large Temperature sq * large Precipitation * large Precipitation sq * large

Log household size Electricity dummy Population density Population density sq % Muslim % Grassland Adj Rsq0.20 N4763

TYPES Current livestock income ($/farm) Marginal temperature impact ($/C˚) Marginal precipitation impact ($/mm) Temperature elasticity Precipitation elasticity Net revenue per farm SMALL *-19.6*24.0*-12.5* LARGE * * Value of livestock owned SMALL *-41.0*22.9*-10.6* LARGE * *-0.73 Net revenue per livestock value SMALL *-0.004*-1.51*-0.63* LARGE *-0.006*-1.87*-0.94*

AGGREGATE IMPACT Impact per small farm ($/farm) % of livestock income Impact per large farm ($/farm) % of livestock income 2100 CCC % % CCSR % % PCM % %

Results Ricardian analysis reveals climate is important to African crops and livestock Warming is likely to be harmful to African crops and can be harmful to livestock Increased precipitation is generally beneficial to African agriculture Impacts can be immediate to countries that are currently hot and/or dry