Water allocation optimization in the Orontes River Basin Georges Comair and Raquel Flinker.

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Presentation transcript:

Water allocation optimization in the Orontes River Basin Georges Comair and Raquel Flinker

Outline  Description of the setting  UN Convention and Factors Associated with Equitable Water Use  Optimization function  Optimal allocation results

The Orontes River Basin

Factors Associated with Equitable Water Use 1. Geography 2. Hydrology 3. Climate 4. Past utilization of the waters 5. Economic and social needs 6. Population dependent on the waters 7. Comparative costs of alternative means of satisfying the economic and social needs of each basin state 8. Availability of other water resources 9. Degree to which the needs of a basin state may be satisfied, without causing appreciable harm and substantial injury to a co-basin state.

Factor 1: Geography CountriesCatchment area (km 2 ) Lebanon 2, Syria 16, Turkey 5, Total 24,744.48

Factor 2: Hydrology

Factor 3: Climate

Factor 4: Existing Utilization

Factor 5: Economic and Social Needs  Water demand that meets Economic and social needs.  Syria does not use its water resources very efficiently Countries Current Water Demand (million m 3 ) Lebanon 80 Syria 2,687 Turkey 500 Total 3,267

Factor 6: Population Dependent on Waters Countries Population Dependant on Waters Lebanon 0 Syria 2,528,000 Turkey 1,480,571 Total 4,008,571

Factor 7: Comparative Costs of Alternatives Countries GDP (million US$) World Bank 2010 Lebanon 39,006 Syria 59,147 Turkey 734,364 Total 832,517

Factor 8: Availability of Other Resources  Water Stress Index

Factor 9: Appreciable Harm  Can be measured by impacts on social, economic and environmental needs.

Class Survey 1. Geography 2. Hydrology 3. Climate 4. Existing utilization 5. Economic and social needs (water demand) 6. Population dependent on waters of the basin 7. Comparative costs of alternative (GDP) 8. Availability of other resources (Water Stress Index) 9. Appreciable harm

Optimization

Existence of Solutions  Weierstrass Theorem  Describes conditions on the objective function and the constraint set so that we are guaranteed that solutions will always exist  Constraint set is compact (closed and bounded)  Objective function is continuous on the constraint set

Optimization results

Questions 1. What additional factors do you think should be included in this analysis? 2. Do you agree with the assumptions made for each factor?