MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture.

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MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved Schematic model intended to Indicate trend and cyclical rhythm time frames and not absolute levels of price magnitude Stock Market Cycles Schematic model intended to indicate trend and cyclical rhythm time frames and not absolute levels of price magnitude Short-Term Trend Structure Long-Term Trend Structure Intermediate-Term Trend Structure Accumulation Zone Distribution Zone

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved The Amplitude of a Wave

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved The Period of a Wave

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved The Phase Difference Between 2 Waves

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved The Summation of 2 Waves

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved Lacking Harmonicity

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved Lacking Synchonicity

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved Lacking Harmonicity & Synchonicity

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved DJIA Quarterly Hi-Lo, illustrating 4-4 /1/2 Year Cycle. Avg. Duration: Last 8 cycles is 49.8 months. Avg. Bull Phase Skew is 35.4 months; Avg. Bear Phase Skew is 14.4 months. Kitchin Wave

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved Edward Dewey 9.2-Year Cycle in Stock Prices

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved Kondratieff’s Long Wave

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved Schumpeter’s Model – The 19th Century Business Model

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved Sun Spots

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved Structure of an Ideal Elliott Wave

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved Seasonal Cycles November Soybeans (CBOT) 15-Year Seasonal ( )

MTA Educational Foundation University Course – Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets © 2011 Lecture 7 - Theory of Stock Market Cycles This lecture series is produced by the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation Copyright © All rights are reserved Seasonal Cycles – Market Performance Each Month of the Year (57-1/3 Years - January April 2007) Average month-to-month % change in S&P 500 (based on monthly closing prices)