CONSUMPTION WILL LEAD TO RESOURCE SCARCITY EVENTUALLY – WE ARE ENTERING THIS ERA NOW BUT ARE IN COMPLETE DENIAL ABOUT IT. RARE EARTH’S ARE THE FIRST INDICATION. What are the manifestations and solutions? Challenges traditional supply/demand economic models Requires some component of morality based decision making Requires public policy based on avoiding the worse possible outcome 1.. The time is near (10-20 years) for the end of “cheap” fossil fuels as our energy foundation Solutions do exist – implementation takes leadership and the ability to think big The Public needs to become a lot more energy and climate literate in order for initiatives to succeed

Globalization and Change Post WW II New Players = Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey (China + India) = 3* US Big E or Little e  US = 5* (China+India) Japan + Germany = 0.5*US Japan + Germany = 0.2*US Turkey > Japan, France, Germany

 Our enormously productive economy demands that we make consumption our way of life, that we convert the buying and use of goods into rituals, that we seek our spiritual satisfactions, our ego satisfactions, in consumption. The measure of social status, of social acceptance, of prestige, is now to be found in our consumptive patterns. The very meaning and significance of our lives today is expressed in consumptive terms. consumptive terms

sustainability Greed

Accelerated Climate Change CONSUMPTION 

 LNG Importation development  “Clean Coal”  Fast Breeder Reactors  NG Fracking (steel problem)  Fastest gateway to energy economy  Leads to Growth of GDP  Accelerates Global CO 2 Deposition  Reinforces BAU – mine the planet

Economics not sustainability awareness

 Ocean Gyres Giant diffuse collection points of the plastic waste of humanity. Takes many years for individual bottle cap to find itself here.

The WalMart Express Cheap plastic crap here

Factor of 10 Growth in just 25 years! This is the principle driver of Climate Change

12% Annual Growth Rate last 3 years Need more Super Container Fleets and Ports to Scale

2015: MSC Oscar TEU!

Breaking out of BAU  Consume less  Drive less  Plan ahead  Invest in Renewable Energy infrastructure  Have long term governmental goals  Instill consumer morality based decision making  Requires actual leadership  Requires world cooperation – one planet Is this just too Damn Hard to Do?

Business world analogy The 7 reasons that (business) culture resists change 1. There isn't any real need for the change 2. The change is going to make it harder for them to meet their needs 3. The risks seem to outweigh the benefits 4. They don't think they have the ability to make the change 5. They believe the change will fail 6. Change process is being handled improperly by management 7. The change is inconsistent with their values

2. The change is going to make it harder for them to meet their needs Reducing consumption and consumption fossil fuel based energy is too hard to do and will significantly compromise my current lifestyle. Furthermore, since there is not evidence that compels me to make such a change, Fuck it …

3. The risks seem to outweigh the benefits My short term economic security is far more important than long term benefit for the planetary ecosystem

4. They don't think they have the ability to make the change I am an individual, what can I do that will actually make any impact ?

5. They believe the change will fail Since there is no evidence that changing our consumption habits will have any positive effect then any such mandate to change will surely fail and have significant negative consequences.

6. Change process is being handled improperly by management We don't trust our government to make a fair set of regulations. We don’t trust scientific advisors to the government to be unbiased. All policy recommendations serve only self-interests. There is not gov’t for the people anymore …

NATURE GOD HUMANS TREES ROCKS Connectivity Of Atoms Disconnected States HUMANS TREES ROCKS Super Nova Everything Is Connected to Everything Certainty Entitlement Aarogance Wisdom Enlightenment Humility

7. The change is inconsistent with their values Of course it is! We are not part of nature; we control nature; nature does not control us. We are not in partnership with nature. The Aboriginal world view of connectivity is bullshit. Humans are special.

But Solution Space Exists! Solar PV Solar PV Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain and cellulosic, hydrogen, hybrids) Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain and cellulosic, hydrogen, hybrids) Biomass Co-Generation Biomass Co-Generation OTEC; Gulf Current OTEC; Gulf Current Live in Ambient Partnership with Nature Live in Ambient Partnership with Nature

Barriers to Renewables High capital cost; long payback times High capital cost; long payback times Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking on truly large scale projects Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking on truly large scale projects NIMBY reactions to anything and everything makes implementation difficult NIMBY reactions to anything and everything makes implementation difficult Technology uncertainty Technology uncertainty Grid Limitations Grid Limitations Human apathy, ignorance, entitlement Human apathy, ignorance, entitlement

Evaluation Rubric For All forms of Renewables 1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM 2 ) 2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton) 3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW) 4. MW output versus production time scale to bring on line (months/MW) 5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt) 6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per KWH)

To Evaluate Competing Electricity Generating Technologies Develop an internally consistent indexing system for the 6 attributes listed previously (the dow jones is an index) Use real world data and real world physics to best determine the values Weight the indexes appropriately (real world cares about $/Watt and Jobs Created) Choose Baseline – we will use Solar in the following exercise

 1. Land ~20 MW/km (over 24 hour day) = 1  2. Materials ~3 tons per kw = 1  3. Jobs ~3 jobs per MW  4. Time ~10 MW per month  5. Capital ~3$ per watt real facility cost  6. Levelized 10 cents per KWH

IndexSolarWindWavesBiomass Land Material13.21 Jobs1115 Time13.5 Capital Level Cumulative Index = 1+2+(1.5) (5)+1.25(6) Highest Index is Best

 Solar = 7  Waves =4.75  Biomass =11 (because of jobs created)  Wind = 17 (lower material intensity and low Levelized costs)  In general, wind is more scalable than Solar and wind always beats Solar PV

 Sonoran Desert Project: 300,000 square 2% coverage yields 100,000 MW

Lake Michigan Wind project down North South Axis: Populate 400 x 30 km box with 30 legs each containing MW turbines: 180,000 MW

Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100 MW vertical Wind Turbines: Construct 10,000 of these (Space Needle Size) and each per 125 square km. This produces 1TW of electricity and effectively replaces all other forms of electricity generation in the US.

Be Optimistic and ProActive Change can occur when consumers are properly informed. Technological solutions exist to make significant impact if deployed now Consume Less Technology is rapidly improving We are probably NOT Terminally Stupid

You have three choices: Practice BAUGive UPProactive: Educate your Peers Make the Wise Choice